Clinton will win 272-266, winning CO, NV and Pa.
Bush wins narrowly.
President Obama won Colorado and Nevada by 5-6 points in 2012, I don't think all who voted for the President in 2008 and 2012 will vote for Hillary Clinton. Bush's path to victory looks like his brother's path to re-election, he shares his brother's strength and then some with his appeal to hispanic voters, he will do better amongst political moderates, and he will do far better amongst catholic voters. To do as well as W in '04, Jeb Bush would have to win Nevada by 2 points and Colorado by roughly 3 points. I think he can accomplish that.
Consider this:
- In 2004, President Bush won 40% of the hispanic vote and won the election +3
- In 2012, Mitt Romney won 27% of the hispanic vote and lost the election -4
Jeb can win 45-50% of the hispanic vote if he plays his cards right, and off-set Hillary winning probably 56-58% of the female vote. Of course, as I have stated, he needs to also win the catholic vote and, at a minimum, close the gap with moderates and white working-class voters.
Poll
