How do Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill, and Nelson do in 2024?

[NewYorkExpress]

Heitkamp and Donnelly would be DOA. Nelson probably wouldn't even be running, and McCaskill probably would be in a similar situation to her 2012 reelection bid, where her chances depended on Republicans nominating the weakest possible candidate.

[NewYorkExpress]

Heitkamp and Donnelly would be DOA. Nelson probably wouldn't even be running, and McCaskill probably would be in a similar situation to her 2012 reelection bid, where her chances depended on Republicans nominating the weakest possible candidate.

How would the open FL seat be looking. Are Democrats' chances better or worse than with Scott running for re-election?

Val Demings would still be the Democratic nominee. Her chances probably depend on which Republican is nominated to face her. Someone like Gaetz, for example, she wins (and possibly by double digits), while if Republicans nominate DeSantis, Curbelo, or someone like Vern Buchanan, she loses.

[NewYorkExpress]

Heitkamp and Donnelly would be DOA. Nelson probably wouldn't even be running, and McCaskill probably would be in a similar situation to her 2012 reelection bid, where her chances depended on Republicans nominating the weakest possible candidate.

How would the open FL seat be looking. Are Democrats' chances better or worse than with Scott running for re-election?

Val Demings would still be the Democratic nominee. Her chances probably depend on which Republican is nominated to face her. Someone like Gaetz, for example, she wins (and possibly by double digits), while if Republicans nominate DeSantis, Curbelo, or someone like Vern Buchanan, she loses.

Demings was the nominee against Rubio, not the expected opponent of Rick Scott. And DeSantis has a lot more on his mind than a senate seat.

Okay, well, Demings would probably try again for an open seat (hell, I don't even think she'd run against Rubio if Nelson makes it clear ahead of time that he's retiring).