RI-01 Special Election Megathread

[NewYorkExpress]

If Allan Fung carpetbags over from the Second District, this one might actually be competitive. Otherwise, Safe D.

[NewYorkExpress]

Could Jessica de la Cruz win? I always felt she is a very strong candidate who has a lot of appeal to conservative Catholics and white working class voters in Rhode Island.

I would say, that in this district, a candidate like Fung or de la Cruz, the best they could do is run a competitive race and make Democrats spend money they really shouldn't be spending. They aren't actually going to win, barring a comically weak Democratic nominee and the political environment getting a lot worse for Democrats in Rhode Island.

[NewYorkExpress]

Could Jessica de la Cruz win? I always felt she is a very strong candidate who has a lot of appeal to conservative Catholics and white working class voters in Rhode Island.

I know it’s a lifetime ago, but the RIGOP ran a well funded candidate and serious challenger against Cicilline who was plagued by scandal over his tenure as mayor of Providence ten years ago. He won by double digits and they haven’t bothered since.

It's a special election, so the dynamics are going to be different than they would be if this race was occurring in November 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

Helena Foulkes is out, State Senator Sandra Cano is in. Also, in case you missed, State House Speaker, Joe Shekarchi is also out.

Cano chairs the State Senate Education Committee and would be a strong candidate if she wins. Assuming she or Matos gets through the primary, I would be comfortable moving this to Safe D.

So far, no Republicans have announced as of yet (unless you count Allen Waters, who is running in the Democratic Primary).

[NewYorkExpress]

State Representative Nathan Biah is in.

Biah will almost certainly be running from the right, as he had the endorsement of Rhode Island Right to Life in his 2020 run for State Representative.

[NewYorkExpress]

Providence City Councilman John Goncalves is in.

State Representative Stephen Casey plans to announce this week.

[NewYorkExpress]

Providence City Councilman John Goncalves is in.

State Representative Stephen Casey plans to announce this week.

Casey won that seat over ten years ago by running against an archconservative democrat on a pro-union pension platform. He’d be a great candidate for a rust belt seat. Tepid endorsement right now, because while I love the union man vibes, I’m not so good on his other views tho I’d imagine they’d be tempered out in congress.

Sabrina Matos is currently my preferred nominee for the seat.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1642164884455452672

Regunberg seems likely to be the lone progressive running so far (unless there's something about one of the other candidates I don't know about).

He's apparently a supporter of the Green New Deal, and received mostly progressive support in his campaign for Lieutenant Governor in 2018 against Dan McKee.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1644027344506724354

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/TedNesi/status/1645473276691349508

[NewYorkExpress]

State Representative Marvin Abney is in.

I could be wrong, but I think Abney is currently the only black candidate. That might be relevant in the primary.

[NewYorkExpress]

Businessman Don Carlson becomes the "lucky" thirteenth Democrat to enter the race.

Jamestown businessman Don Carlson announced Sunday he is jumping into the Democratic primary to replace outgoing Congressman David Cicilline. 

“My family’s roots run deep in this state and in this district,” Carlson said in a statement announcing his campaign. “I will work hard every day to deliver real and meaningful results for the people of this district, and to continue the great work that was done by our Congressman David Cicilline.”

Carlson grew up in Rhode Island, graduating from Toll Gate High School before attending Williams College and Harvard Law School. He clerked for Rhode Island U.S. Appeals Court Judge Bruce Selya.



After his clerkship, Carlson served as legislative director and chief counsel for Congressman Joseph P. Kennedy II, and later led the transition for Connecticut Congressman Jim Himes after his election to the House.

It's worth noting we still do not have a Republican candidate....

[NewYorkExpress]

Former White House Aide Gabe Amo has become the fourteenth Democrat to announce a campaign.

Gabe Amo, a native son of Pawtucket, on Tuesday joined the ever-growing crowd of Democratic candidates for Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District seat days after resigning his job as a special assistant in the Biden Administration.

[NewYorkExpress]

Former Navy Intelligence Officer Walter Berbrick became the fifteenth Democrat to enter the race today.

Walter Berbrick, a former Navy intelligence officer – and professor in the War Gaming Department at the U.S. Naval War College until his recent resignation to try politics – has jumped into the crowded Democratic race to succeed U.S. Rep. David Cicilline in Congress.

A newcomer to the Rhode Island political scene, Berbrick, 38, of Middletown, became the 15th Democrat to enter the race when he announced his candidacy Friday.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lincoln Town Councilor Pamela Azar has become the sixteenth Democrat to enter the race.

Lincoln Town Councilor Pamela Azar is running in the 1st Congressional District.

...
“I’m running to help people and be a red-tape cutter and negotiate and mediate with the other side of the aisle,” said Azar, who is a Democrat. “I don’t like this endless war. I want to represent the people who might be cynical about voting. People know I’m not afraid to stand up for them — I represent the silent majority.”

[NewYorkExpress]

Narangassett Tribal Elder Bella Machado Noka has become the seventeenth Democrat to either announce or file paperwork for this seat.

A Narragansett tribal elder has joined the increasingly packed race to replace Congressman David Cicilline, who is stepping down on June 1.

Bella Machado Noka announced Thursday she is joining more than a dozen Democratic candidates vying for the 1st District Congressional seat.

[NewYorkExpress]

I have to admit, if Leonard Jr. wins the Republican Primary, he could outrun Trump's numbers by a decent sized margin. Rhode Island seems to like their military types (see Jack Reed, for example).

That said, it would take a double digit overperformance for any Republican to win, and that just isn't realistic, especially against Matos.

[NewYorkExpress]

Don't have a source because it's behind a paywall, but apparently Pamela Azar ended her campaign at some point and endorsed Ana Quezada.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sabina Matos campaign being investigated for “possible” fraud with campaign signatures (500 were needed to get on the ballot), this also follows poor fundraising numbers.

https://www.wpri.com/target-12/jamestown-officials-investigating-possible-signature-fraud-in-race-for-congress?utm_source=wpri_app&utm_medium=social&utm_content=share-link

She may be the front runner, and I’d bet a volunteer either screwed up or some individual names were counted on more than one day, but she has a fragile lead and this shows it. She has statewide name recognition… but she was picked out of obscurity to be Lt. Governor when Raimondo left and McKee took over, and her first real election was still pretty competitive. I think the Regunberg, Cano, Amo, and Autiello campaigns are all more organized.

What are the chances Matos is thrown off the ballot?

[NewYorkExpress]

I would hope that criminal charges are filed against Matos here. There's no way she didn't at least know what was going on (if not actively assist in the fraud).

[NewYorkExpress]

Still think a Matos indictment is very possible here (or at least a deal where Matos avoids an indictment (and the investigation ends), in exchange for her dropping out of the race and resigning as Lieutenant Governor.).

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1684546381623570435?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

Congratulations to Regunberg on winning the primary.

In all seriousness, this is the kind of race where a Sanders endorsement may be decisive. Closely divided field, weak frontrunner with clear ethical problems, a state (and I'm pretty sure a district) where Sanders won in both 2016 and 2020, and a race where Regunberg is the lone prominent progressive, against a field of moderates and conservatives.

A good move by Sanders, and this is very good news for Regunberg.

[NewYorkExpress]

Beginning to grow increasingly concerned that Regunberg is going to win the nomination with a plurality.

What do you have against Regunberg? Assuming you are a progressive, he seems like someone you'd like, and if you aren't, Republicans aren't running a candidate high-profile enough to put this seat at any risk of being close, let alone flipping. Allen Fung isn't running, and neither is Jessica de la Cruz, and they're the only two Republicans who could make this seat competitive.

[NewYorkExpress]

Got think if Jack Reed retires in 2026 (very possible, Reed will be almost 76 on election day), Amo will be the frontrunner in the Senate race.

[NewYorkExpress]

Gabe Amo could be a plausible VP candidate in 2028 or 2032 for someone like Buttigeig or Ossoff (not that either have a realistic chance-I expect a Kamala Harris coronation, if we even have a 2028 election (which would assume a Biden victory in 2024).)