2022 Gubernatorial matchups and ratings

[NewYorkExpress]

Inspired by the Senate thread of the same title, I thought I'd try my luck at predicting the Gubernatorial matchups of 2022, and rating them.

I'm assuming this will be a Biden Midterm.

Alabama: Kay Ivey vs Randall Woodfin: Safe R

Alaska: Kevin Meyer vs Tom Begich: Lean R

Arizona: Karen Fann vs Kate Gallego: Tilt R

Arkansas: Leslie Rutledge vs Mark Stodola: Safe R

California: Xavier Becerra vs Eric Garcetti: Safe D, Lean Becerra

Colorado: Jared Polis vs Michael Coffman: Likely D

Connecticut: Ned Lamont vs Themis Klarides: Likely D

Florida: Ron DeSantis vs Charlie Crist: Tilt D

Georgia: Brian Kemp vs Stacy Abrams: Tilt R

Hawaii: Tulsi Gabbard vs Andria Tupola: Safe D

Idaho: Brad Little vs Ilana Rubel: Safe R

Illinois: J.B Pritzker vs Adam Kinzinger: Lean D

Iowa: Adam Gregg vs Abby Finkenauer: Tilt R

Kansas: Laura Kelly vs Jake LaTurner: Lean R

Maine: Paul LePage vs Janet Mills vs Insert Independent here. Tilt R

Maryland: Peter Franchot vs Boyd Rutherford: Lean D

Massachusetts: Charlie Baker vs Joe Kennedy III: Tilt R

Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer vs John James vs Justin Amash: Tilt D

Minnesota: Tim Walz vs Erik Paulsen: Tilt D

Nebraska: Don Stenberg vs Bob Krist: Safe R

Nevada: Steve Sisolak vs Mark Amodei: Lean  D

New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte vs Chris Pappas: Tilt R

New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham vs Yvette Herell: Tilt D

New York: Andrew Cuomo vs Lee Zeldin: Likely D

Ohio: Mike DeWine vs Tim Ryan: Lean R

Oklahoma: Kevin Sitt vs J.J Dossett: Safe R

Oregon: Ellen Rosenblum vs Christine Drazan: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vs Keith Rothfus: Likely D

Rhode Island: James Langevin vs Blake Fillippi: Lean D

South Carolina: Henry McMaster vs Jamie Harrison: Tilt R

South Dakota: Kirsti Noem vs random sacrificial lamb: Safe R

Tennessee: Bill Lee vs Jim Strickland: Safe R

Texas: Greg Abbott vs Julian Castro: Tilt R

Vermont: Peter Welch vs Patricia McCoy: Safe D

Wisconsin: Tony Evers vs Rebecca Kleefisch: Tilt R

Wyoming: Mark Gordon defeats random sacrificial lamb: Safe R

[NewYorkExpress]

Why is Gavin Newsom not running for reelection here? He's obviously safe. As is Andrew Cuomo.

I have Newsom running for the Senate with Kamala now VP.

Cuomo's only not safe in the sense that a Working Families nominee (if that isn't Cuomo) could draw votes from him.

Joe Kenedy isn't going to run for governor if Baker is running for re-election

Baker's going to face a tougher opponent than he got in 2018. Kennedy's got nothing to do, and as has been previously noted, it's unlikely he runs for anything other than Governor or Senator (if Warren ends up in the Cabinet.)