Challenge and Choice, an Obama TL

[NewYorkExpress]

Alaska

Governor

Sarah Palin (R) 51%
Ethan Berkowitz (D) 39%
Don Wright (AIP) 7%
Billy Tolen (L) 3%

Senate(Lisa Murkowski defeated in primary)

Bruce Botehlo (D) 44%
Joe Miller (R) 42%
David Haase (L) 8%
Timothy Carter (I) 4.7%
Ted Giannatsous (I) 2.3%

D+0

At-Large Congressional District (Don Young defeated in Primary)

Talis Colberg (R) 57%
Harry Crawford (D) 43%

Wyoming

Governor (Dave Freudenthal term-limited)

Rita Meyer (R) 60%
Pete Gosar (D) 33%
Taylor Haynes (I) 5%
Mike Wheeler (L) 2%

At-Large Congressional District

Cynthia Lummis (R) 67%
Leslie Petersen (D) 29%
John Love (L) 4%

Rhode Island

Governor

Frank Caprio (D) 39%
John Robataille (R) 35%
Ken Block (Moderate) 15%
Ronald Algeri (I) 6%
Todd Giroux (I) 3%
Joseph Lusi (I) 2%

First Congressional District (Patrick Kennedy running for Governor)

David Cicilline (D) 49.4%
John Loughlin (R) 47.5%
Kenneth Capalbo (I) 2.1%
Gregory Raposa (I) 1%


Second Congressional District

James Langevin (D) 60%
Mark Zaccaria (I) 38%
John Matson (I) 2%

Connecticut

Governor (Jodi Rell running for Senate)

Dannel Malloy (D) 50%
Michael Fedele (R) 49.1%
Thomas Marsh (I) 0.9%

D+0/R-0

Senate (Chris Dodd retiring)

Jodi Rell (R) 48%
Richard Blumenthal (D) 47%
Warren Mosler (I) 5%

R+0



First Congressional District

John Larson (D) 59%
Ann Brickley (R) 39%
Kenneth Krayske (G) 1.2%
Christopher Hutchison (Socialist Action) 0.8%

Second Congressional District

John Courtney (D) 57%
Janet Peckipaugh 41%
G. Scott Deshfy (G) 2%

Third Congressional District

Rosa DeLauro (D) 62%
Jerry LaBriola Jr. 36%
Charles Pillsbury 2%

Fourth Congressional District

Jim Himes (D) 51%
Dan Debicella (R) 49%

Fifth Congressional District

Chris Murphy (D) 50.76%
Sam Caligury (R) 49.24%

[NewYorkExpress]

New Jersey

First Congressional District

Rob Andrews (D) 64%
Dale Glading (R) 36%

Second Congressional District

Jeff Van Drew (D) 50.5%
Frank LoBiondo (R) 49.5%

R+12

Third Congressional District

Nicholas Asselta (R) 49%
John Adler (D) 47%
Peter DeStefano (I) 4%

R+13

Fourth Congressional District

Chris Smith (D) 64%
Howard Klienhender (R) 36%

Fifth Congressional District

Dennis McNerney (D) 51%
Scott Garrett (R) 49%

R+12

Sixth Congressional District

Frank Pallone (D) 62%
Anna Little (R) 38%

Seventh Congressional District

Linda Stender (D) 50.51%
Leonard Lance (R) 49.49%

R+11

Eighth Congressional District

Bill Pascrell (D) 66%
Roland Straten (R) 34%

Ninth Congressional District

Steve Rothman (D) 67%
Michael Agosta (R) 33%

Tenth Congressional District

Don Payne (D) 81%
Michael Alonso (R) 19%

Eleventh Congressional District

Rodney Freylinghuysen (R) 51.25%
Richard Codey (D) 48.75%

Twelfth Congressional District

Caroline Casagrande (R) 51%
Rush Holt (D) 49

R+12

Louisiana

Senate

Charlie Melancon (D) 49%
David Vitter (R) 37%
Randall Todd Hayes (L) 6%
William McShan (Reform) 5%
Skip Galan (I) 2%
Mike Spears (I) 1%

D+1

First Congressional District

Steve Scalise (R) 70%
Myron Katz (D) 24%
Arden Wells (I) 6%

Second Congressional District

Cedric Richmond (D) 68%
Anh Cao (R) 28%
Anthony Marquize (I) 3%
Jack Radosta (I) 1%

R+11

Third Congressional District (Melancon running for Senate)

Jeff Landry (R) 53%
Reggie Dupre (D) 47%

R+12

Fourth Congressional District

John Fleming (R) 53%
Cedric Glover (D) 47%

Sixth Congressional District

Bill Cassidy (R) 54%
Kip Holden (D) 46%

Seventh Congressional District

Charles Boustany was unopposed.

[NewYorkExpress]

Virginia

First Congressional District

Rob Wittman (R) 57%
Krystal Ball (D) 41%
G. Gail Parker (G) 2%

Second Congressional District

Glenn Nye (D) 49%
Scott Taylor (R) 47%
Kenny Golden (I) 4%

Third Congressional District

Bobby Scott (D) 65%
Chuck Smith (R) 27%
James Quigley (L) 5%
John Kelly (I) 3%

Fourth Congressional District

Randy Forbes (R) 60%
Wayne LeGrow (D) 40%

Fifth Congressional District

Robert Hurt (R) 49%
Tom Perrillo (D) 46%
Jeffery Clark (I) 5%

R+13

Sixth Congressional District

Bob Goodlatte (R) 55%
Leland Melvin (D) 29%
Jeffery Vanke (I) 11%
Stuart Bain (L) 5%

Seventh Congressional District

Eric Cantor (R) 56%
Rick Waugh (D) 38%
Floyd Bayne (G) 6%

Eighth Congressional District

Jim Moran (D) 65%
Matthew Berry (R) 32%
J. Ron Fisher (G) 3%

Ninth Congressional District

Morgan Griffith (R) 50%
Rick Boucher (D) 47%
Jeremiah Heaton (I) 3%

R+14

Tenth Congressional District

Margaret Vanderhye (D) 48%
Frank Wolf (R) 46%
Bill Redpath (L) 6%

R+13

Eleventh Congressional District

Gerry Connolly (D) 56%
Corey Stewart (R) 35%
Christopher DeCarlo (I) 4%
David Gillis Jr. (G) 4%
David Dotson (I) 1%

Utah

Senate (Bob Bennett retiring)

Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) 63%
Christopher Stout (D) 27%
Scott Bradley (Constitution) 10%

First Congressional District

Rob Bishop (R) 64%
Morgan Bowen (D) 25%
Kirk Pearson (Constitution) 7%
Jared Paul Stratton (L) 4%

Second Congressional District

Morgan Philpot (R) 55%
Jim Matheson (D) 41%
Randall Hinton (Constitution) 2%
David Glissmeyer (I) 1%
Wayne Hill (I) 1%

R+14

Third Congressional District

Jason Chaffetz (R) 70%
Karen Hyer (D) 24%
Douglas Slighting (Constitution) 4%
Jake Shanton (L) 1%
Joel Puente (I) 1%

[NewYorkExpress]

Missouri

Senate(Kit Bond retiring)

Sarah Steelman (R) 51%
Robin Carnahan (D) 44%
Jonathan Dine (L) 3%
Jerry Beck (Constitution) 2%

First Congressional District

William Lacy Clay Jr. (D) 82%
Martin Baker (R) 15%
Julie Stone (L) 3%

Second Congressional District

Todd Akin (R) 64%
Arthur Lieber (D) 34%
Steve Mosbacher 2%

Third Congressional District

Ed Martin (R) 49%
Russ Caranhan 48.6%
Steven Hedrick (L) 1.7%
Nick Ivanovich (Constitution) 0.7%

R+15

Fourth Congressional District

Vicky Hartzler (R) 59%
Ike Skelton (D) 37%
Jason Michael Braun (L) 3%
Greg Cowan (Constitution) 1%

R+16

Fifth Congressional District

Emmanuel Cleaver (D) 59%
Jacob Turk (R) 36%
Randall Langkraehr (L) 3%
Dave Lay (Constitution) 2%

Sixth Congressional District

Sam Graves (R) 70%
Clint Hylton (D) 30%

Seventh Congressional District

Jack Goodman (R) 62%
Scott Eckersley (D) 35%
Kevin Craig (L) 3%

Eighth Congressional District

JoAnn Emerson (R) 61%
Tommy Sowers (D) 32%
Rick Vandeven (L) 5%
Larry Bill (I) 2%

Nebraska

Governor

Dave Heineman (R) 59%
Mike Meister (D) 41%

First Congressional District

Jeff Fortenberry (R) 67%
Ivy Harper (D) 33%

Second Congressional District

Tom White (D) 51%
Lee Terry (R) 49%

R+15

Third Congressional District

Adrian Smith (R) 69%
Rebekah Davis (D) 19%
Dan Hill (I) 12%

Oklahoma

Governor (Brad Henry term-limited)

J.C Watts (R) 59%
Jari Askins (D) 41%

R+0/D-1

Senate (Tom Coburn retiring)

Mary Fallin (R) 52%
Brad Henry (D) 43%
Stephen Wallace (I) 4%
Ronald Dwyer (I) 1%

First Congressional District (John Sullivan defeated in Republican Primary)

Bill LaFortune (R) 71%
Angelia O'Dell (I) 29%

Second Congressional District

Dan Boren (D) 51%
Charles Thompson (R) 49%

Third Congressional District

Frank Lucas (R) 84%
Frankie Robbins (D) 16%

Fourth Congressional District

Tom Cole ran unopposed

Fifth Congressional District (Mary Fallin running for Senate)

James Lankford (R) 57%
Billy Coyle (D) 35%
Clark Duffe (I) 5%
Dave White (I) 3%

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm still trying to understand this TL. Is this an 'Obama does worse'-type thing?

He's not doing significantly worse at present, because Republican turnout is weaker due to no Health Care bill and and a smaller stimulus.

At the same time he's struggling because he still hasn't named a Secretary of Homeland Security (FEMA Director Craig Fugate has been serving as Acting Director since being sworn in as Director of FEMA), and having to replace three Supreme Court Justices (with two more possible- both Kennedy and Breyer are considering retirement as well.) is helping gin up some Republican turnout.

[NewYorkExpress]

Maryland

Governor

Martin O'Malley (D) 62%
Bob Ehlrich (R) 35%
Susan Gaztangana (L) 2%
Maria Allwine (G) 0.6%
Eric Knowles (Constitution) 0.4%

Senate

Barbara Milkulski (D) 68%
Eric Wargotz (R) 29%
Kenniss Henry (G) 2%
Richard Shawver (Constitution) 1%

First Congressional District

Andy Harris (R) 55%
Frank Kratovil (D) 43%
Richard Davis (L) 2%

R+16

Second Congressional District

Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 65%
Marcelo Cardaelli (R) 30%
Lorenzo Gaztanga (L) 5%

Third Congressional District

John Sarbanes (D) 66%
Jim Wilhelm (R) 30%
Jerry McKinley (L) 3%
Alain Lareau (Constitution) 1%

Fourth Congressional District

Donna Edwards (D) 89%
Robert Broadus (R) 11%

Fifth Congressional District

Steny Hoyer (D) 67%
Charles Lollar (R) 30%
H. Gavin Shickle (L) 3%

Sixth Congressional District

James Smith Jr. (D) 49.5%
Roscoe Bartlett (R) 48.1%
Dan Massey (L) 1.6%
Michael Reed (Constitution) 0.8%

R+15

Seventh Congressional District

Elijah Cummings (D) 82%
Frank Mirable (R) 10%
Scott Spencer (L) 8%

Eighth Congressional District

Chris Van Hollen (D) 79%
Michael Lee Phillips (R) 17%
Mark Grannis (L) 3%
Fred Nordhorn (Constitution) 1%

Iowa

Governor

Terry Branstad (R) 51%
Chet Culver (D) 43%
Jonathan Narcisse (Iowa Party) 2%
Eric Cooper (L) 2%
David Rosenfeld (Socialist Workers) 1.2%
Gregory Hughes (I) 0.8%

Senate (Chuck Grassley retiring)

Tom Vilsack (D) 52%
Steve King (R) 45%
John Heiderschit (L) 3%

D+2

First Congressional District

Bruce Braley (D) 49%
Ben Lange (R) 45%
Rob Petsche (L) 4%
Jason Faulkner (I) 2%

Second Congressional District

Dave Loebsack (D) 50%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 47%
Gary Sicard (L) 2%
Jon Tack (Constitution) 1%

Third Congressional District

Leonard Boswell (D) 49%
Brad Zaun (R) 47%
Rebecca Williamson (Socialist Workers) 4%

Fourth Congressional District

Tom Latham (R) 49%
Bonnie Campbell (D) 48%
Dan Lensing (I) 3%

Fifth Congressional District (Steve King running for Senate)

Adam Gregg (R) 64%
Matthew Campbell (D) 34%
Martin James Monroe (I) 2%

[NewYorkExpress]

I mean agenda and popularity wise (he has gotten less of his agenda passed, but is his popularity higher?)

His popularity is slightly lower among Democrats, slightly higher among Independents, and about the same among Republicans.

One thing working in Obama and Senate Democrats favor is there is more split ticket balloting (voters are voting Republican in House races, and for Democrats in Senate races).

Nancy Pelosi is more unpopular than she was at this point IRL, however Harry Reid's approvals are significantly higher than they were at this point IRL.

[NewYorkExpress]

North Dakota

Senate

John Hoeven (R) 55%
Byron Dorgan (D) 43%
Keith Hanson (L) 2%

D+1

At-Large Congressional District

Rick Berg (R) 53%
Earl Pomeroy (D) 47%

R+16

Arizona (Janet Napolitano term-limited)

Terry Goddard (D) 51%
Jan Brewer (R) 47%
Barry Hess (L) 1.4%
Larry Gist (G) 0.6%

Senate (John McCain defeated in Republican Primary)

Gabrielle Giffords (D) 51%
J.D Hayworth (R) 46%
David Nolan (L) 2%
Rodney Glassman (G) 1%

D+2

First Congressional District

Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 52%
Paul Gosar (R) 46%
Nicole Patti (L) 2%

Second Congressional District

Trent Franks (R) 64%
John Thrasher (D) 32%
Powell Gammill (L) 4%

Third Congressional District (John Shadegg retiring)

Cindy McCain (R) 49%
Jon Hulburd (D) 45%
Michael Shoen (L) 5%
Leonard Clark (G) 4%

Fourth Congressional District

Ed Pastor (D) 71%
Janet Contreras (R) 27%
Joe Cobb (L) 1.1%
Rebecca DeWitt (G) 0.9%

Fifth Congressional District

Harry Mitchell (D) 49%
David Schweikert (R) 48%
Nick Coons (L) 3%

Sixth Congressional District

Jeff Flake (R) 70%
Rebecca Schneider (D) 28%
Richard Grayson (G) 1.5%
Darrell Tapp (L) 0.5%

Seventh Congressional District

Raul Grijalva (D) 49%
Ruth McClung (R) 41%
George Keane (L) 7%
Harley Meyer (I) 3%

Eighth Congressional District (Gabrielle Giffords running for Senate)

Tom Volgy (D) 49%
Jesse Kelly (R) 47%
Steven Stoltz (L) 4%

[NewYorkExpress]

That's a huge democratic senate majority... I hope Obama gets some kind of healthcare reform passed at some point. Anyway, it is strange to have Giffords in a seat that her husband would later occupy.

Health Care didn't pass in any form because Democrats like Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu were unwilling to make deals with the Obama Administration or Pelosi. Giffords and Melancon, among, the winning Democrats to this point would be also against a health care bill.

Interestingly, Mitt Romney, who won the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat in 2009, probably would have been a vote in favor of a compromise health care plan, had a deal been reached.

[NewYorkExpress]

South Dakota

Governor

Dennis Daugaard (R) 67%
Scott Heideprim (D) 33%

Senate

John Thune (R) 56%
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 44%

At-Large Congressional District (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin running for Senate)

Kirsti Noem (R) 59%
Bernie Hunhoff (D) 41%

Tennessee

Governor (Phil Bredesen Term-Limited)

Ron Ramsey (R) 51%
Mike McWherter (D) 36%
Bayron Binkley (I) 3%
Brandon Dodds (I) 3%
June Griffin (I) 3%
Toni Hall (I) 2%
Linda Kay Perry (I) 1.5%
James Reesor (I) 0.5%

First Congressional District

Phil Roe (R) 80%
Michael Clark (D) 13%
Kermit Steck (I) 7%

Second Congressional District (Jimmy Duncan retiring)

Bill Haslam (R) 64%
Dave Hancock (D) 29%
Greg Samples (I) 5%
D.H Andrew (I) 2%

Third Congressional District (Zach Wamp running for Governor)

Robin Smith (R) 59%
John Wolfe Jr. 39%
Don Barkman (I) 2%

Fourth Congressional District

Judd Matheny (R) 55%
Lincoln Davis (D) 41%
Gerald York (I) 4%

R+17

Fifth Congressional District

Jim Cooper was elected unopposed

Sixth Congressional District (Bart Gordon retiring)

Diane Black (R) 58%
Ben Leming (D) 42%

R+18

Seventh Congressional District

Marsha Blackburn (R) 65%
Greg Rabidoux (D) 35%

Eighth Congressional District (John Tanner retiring)

Steve Fincher (R) 59%
Roy Herron (D) 37%
Donn James (I) 2%
Mark Rawles (I) 2%

Ninth Congressional District (Steve Cohen defeated in Democratic Primary)

Joe Towns (D) 79%
Charlotte Bergmann (R) 21%

Kansas

Governor (Kathleen Sebelius Term-Limited, running for Senate)

Sam Brownback (R) 52%
Tom Holland (D) 44%
Andrew Gray (L) 3%
Kenneth Cannon (Reform) 1%

R+1/D-2

Senate (Brownback running for Governor)

Kathleen Sebelius (D) 50%
Todd Tiahart (R) 47%
Michael Dann (L) 2%
Joe Bellis (Reform) 1%

D+3

First Congressional District

Jerry Moran (R) 71%
Allan Jilka (D) 26%
Jack Warner (L) 3%

Second Congressional District

Lynn Jenkins (R) 53%
Michelle De La Isla (D) 44%
Robert Garrard (L) 3%

Third Congressional District (Dennis Moore retiring)

Paul Davis (D) 50%
Kevin Yoder (R) 48%
Jasmin Talbert (L) 2%

Fourth Congressional District (Todd Tiarht running for Senate)

Raj Goyle (D) 49%
Mike Pompeo (R) 48.8%
Susan Ducey (Reform) 1.3%
Shawn Smith (L) 0.9%

R+17

[NewYorkExpress]

Arkansas

Governor

Mike Bebee (D) 58%
Jim Keet (R) 40%
Jim Lendall (G) 2%

Senate

Tom Cotton (R) 57%
Blanche Lincoln (D) 37%
Trevor Drown (L) 5%
John Gray (G) 1%

D+2

First Congressional District (Marion Berry retiring)

Rick Crawford (R) 57%
Chad Causey (D) 40%
Ken Adler (G) 3%

R+18

Second Congressional District (Vic Snyder retiring)

Tim Griffin (R) 55%
Joyce Elliot (D) 42%
Lewis Kennedy (G) 2%
Lance Levi (I) 1%

R+19

Third Congressional District (John Boozman running for Senate)

Steve Womack (R) 75%
David Whitaker (D) 25%

Fourth Congressional District

Bruce Maloch (R) 51%
Mike Ross (D) 48%
Josh Drake (G) 1%

Nevada

Governor

Rory Reid (D) 57%
Jim Gibbons (R) 36%
Floyd Fitzsimmons (Independent American) 3%
Arthur Forest Lampitt Jr. (L) 2%
David Scott Curtis (G) 0.5%
None of These Candidates 1.5%

D+0/R+1

Senate

Harry Reid (D) 59%
Sharon Angle (R) 33%
Scott Ashijan (I) 5%
Timothy Fasano (Independent American) 1%
None of These Candidates 2%

Senate-Special

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 51%
Mark Amodei (R) 49%

D+3

First Congressional District

Shelley Berkeley (D) 49%
Oscar Goodman (I) 40%
Kenneth Wegner (R) 7%
Edward George Klapproth (L) 4%

Second Congressional District

Dean Heller (R) 59%
Nancy Price (D) 40%
Russell Best (Independent American) 1%

Third Congressional District

Dina Titus (D) 48%
Joe Heck (R) 47%
Joseph Silvestri (L) 5%

[NewYorkExpress]

Florida

Governor

Charlie Crist (R) 49%
Alex Sink (D) 48%
Peter Allen (Independence) 3%

Senate (Mel Martinez retiring)

Rick Scott (R) 50%
Kendrick Meek (D) 47%
Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
Rick Tyler (I) 1%

First Congressional District

Jeff Miller (R) 90%
Joe Cantrell (I) 8%
John Krause (I) 2%

Second Congressional District (Allen Boyd defeated in Democratic Primary)

Alfred Lawson Jr. (D) 49%
Steve Southerland (R) 47%
Diane Berryhill (I) 4%

Third Congressional District (Corrine Brown running for Governor)

Alvin Brown (D) 58%
Mike Yost (R) 40%
Terry Martin-Black (I) 2%

Fourth Congressional District

Ander Crenshaw ran unopposed.

Fifth Congressional District (Ginny Brown-Waite retiring)

Rich Nugent (R) 60%
Jim Piccillo (D) 40%

Sixth Congressional District

Cliff Stearns ran unopposed.

Seventh Congressional District

John Mica (R) 73%
Heather Beaven (D) 27%

Eighth Congressional District

Alan Grayson (D) 47%
Daniel Webster (R) 45%
George Metcalfe (I) 8%

Ninth Congressional District

Gus Billarakis (R) 72%
Anita DePalma (D) 28%

Tenth Congressional District (Bill Young retiring)

David Jolly (R) 57%
Charlie Justice (D) 43%

Eleventh Congressional District

Kathy Castor (D) 67%
Mike Prendegast (R) 33%

Twelfth Congressional District (Adam Putnam running for Commissioner of Agriculture)

Dennis Ross (R) 50%
Lori Edwards (D) 46%
Randy Wilkinson (I) 4%

Thirteenth Congressional District

Vern Buchanan (R) 66%
James Golden (D) 34%

Fourteenth Congressional District

Connie Mack IV (R) 60%
James Lloyd Roach (D) 40%

Fifteenth Congressional District

Bill Posey (R) 61%
Shannon Roberts (D) 39%

Sixteenth Congressional District

Tom Rooney (R) 70%
Jim Horn (D) 30%

Seventeenth Congressional District (Kendrick Meek running for Senate)

Yolly Roberson won the Democratic Primary, and was elected in the general election unopposed.

Eighteenth Congressional District

Ilena Ros-Letihan (R) 67%
Rolando Banciella (D) 33%

Nineteenth Congressional District (Robert Wexler resigned on September 1, after being appointed Ambassador to Israel. A special election was held the same day as the general election.)

Special Election

Ted Deutch (D) 70%
Joe Budd (R) 30%

General Election

Ted Deutch (D) 65%
Joe Budd (R) 35%

Twentieth Congressional District

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) 71%
Karen Harrington (R) 29%

Twenty-First Congressional District (Lincoln Diaz-Balart retiring)

Marco Rubio won the Republican primary and was elected unopposed.

Twenty-Second Congressional District

Ron Klein (D) 52%
Allen West (R) 48%

Twenty-Third Congressional District (Alcee Hastings defeated in Democratic Primary)

Chris Smith (D) 74%
Bernard Sansaricq (R) 26%

Twenty-Fourth Congressional District

Sandy Adams (R) 53%
Suzanne Kosmas (D) 47%

R+20

Twenty-Fifth Congressional District

Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 55%
Joe Garcia (D) 45%

[NewYorkExpress]

I am curious how Tom Cotton won the Senate nomination against John Boozman...

Considering he was just some random 33 year-old with no political experience at the time.

The Tea Party is still a thing (see McCain's loss), and they decided to support Cotton over Boozman.

Considering Cotton's IRL political positions, they might regret that going forward.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mississppi

First Congressional District

Angela McGlowan (R) 56%
Travis Childers (D) 39%
Gail Giarmita (Constitution) 2%
Harold Taylor (L) 2%
Barbara Washer (Reform) 2%
Les Green (I) 1%

R+21

Second Congressional District

Bennie Thompson (D) 70%
Bill Marcy (R) 29%
Ashley Norwood (Reform) 1%

Third Congressional District

Gregg Harper (R) 66%
Joel Gill (D) 33%
Tracella Lou O'Harris Hill (Reform) 1%

Fourth Congressional District

Steven Palazzo (R) 56%
Gene Taylor (D) 38%
Tim Hampton (L) 4%
Anna Jewel Reeves (Reform) 2%

R+22

Wisconsin

Governor

Tom Barrett (D) 51%
Mark Neumann (R) 46%
Terry Virgil (L) 3%

Senate

Scott Walker (R) 49%
Russ Feingold (D) 48%
Dave Rutowski (I) 2%
Rob Taylor (I) 1%

D+2

First Congressional District

Paul Ryan (R) 66%
John Heckenlively (D) 30%
Joseph Kexel (L) 4%

Second Congressional District

Tammy Baldwin (D) 75%
Chad Lee (R) 25%

Third Congressional District

Ron Kind (D) 48%
Dan Kapanke (R) 44%
Micheal Krisean (I) 8%

Fourth Congressional District

Gwen Moore (D) 74%
Dan Sebring (R) 22%
Eddie Ahmad Ayyash (I) 4%

Fifth Congressional District

Jim Sesenbrenner (R) 71%
Todd Kolosso (D) 26%
Robert Raymond (I) 3%

Sixth Congressional District

Tom Petri (R) 67%
Joseph Kallas (D) 33%

Seventh Congressional District (Dave Obey retiring)

Julie Lassa (D) 49%
Sean Duffy (R) 48.8%
Gary Kauther (I) 2.2%

Eighth Congressional District

Steve Kagen (D) 50.6%
Reid Ribble (R) 49.4%

[NewYorkExpress]

North Carolina

Senate

Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
Richard Burr (R) 46%
Mike Beitler (L) 5%

D+3

First Congressional District

G.K Butterfield (D) 60%
Ashley Woolard (R) 40%

Second Congressional District

Bob Etheridge (D) 48.75%
Renee Ellmers (R) 47.95%
Tom Rose (L) 3.3%

Third Congressional District

Walter Jones (R) 62%
Johnny Rouse (D) 37%
Darryl Holloman (L) 1%

Fourth Congressional District

David Price (D) 77%
B.J Lawson (R) 23%

Fifth Congressional District

Virginia Foxx (R) 59%
Billy Kennedy (D) 41%

Sixth Congressional District (Howard Coble defeated in primary)

Fred Steen II (R) 69%
Sam Turner (D) 31%

Seventh Congressional District

Ilario Pantano (R) 50.87%
Mike McIntrye (D) 49.13%

R+23

Eighth Congressional District

Larry Kissell (D) 55%
Harold Johnson (R) 44%
Thomas Hill (L) 1%

Ninth Congressional District

Sue Myrick (R) 60%
Jeff Doctor (D) 40%

Tenth Congressional District

Patrick McHenry (R) 64%
Jeff Gregory (D) 36%

Eleventh Congressional District

Heath Shuler (D) 51%
Jeff Miller (D) 49%

Twelfth Congressional District

Mel Watt (D) 64%
Scott Cumbie (R) 34%
Lon Cecil (L) 2%

Thirteenth Congressional District

Brad Miller (D) 52%
Bernie Reeves (R) 48%

[NewYorkExpress]

Sad about Feingold. The closer election does give room for a comeback though. #Feinslide

Remember, Obama techincally doesn't have a Secretary of Homeland Security at the moment. Russ Feingold might be a possible nominee for that position post midterms.

[NewYorkExpress]

Georgia

Governor

Karen Handel (R) 50.65%
Roy Barnes (D) 48.54%
John Monds (L) 0.81%

Senate

Johnny Isakson (R) 49%
Thurbert Baker (D) 47%
Chuck Donovan (L) 4%

A runoff between Isakson and Baker will be held in December.

First Congressional District

Jack Kingston (R) 66%
Oscar Harris II (D) 34%

Second Congressional District

Rick Allen (R) 51%
Sanford Bishop (D) 49%

R+24

Third Congressional District

Lynn Westmoreland (R) 72%
Frank Saunders (D) 28%

Fourth Congressional District

Hank Johnson (D) 75%
Lisbeth Carter (R) 25%

Fifth Congressional District (John Lewis resigned on August 5, after being named to the position of President of the United Nations Human Rights Council. A special election was held the same day as the general election.)

Special Election

Stacey Abrams (D) 78%
Fenn Little (R) 22%

General Election

Stacey Abrams (D) 79%
Fenn Little (R) 21%

Sixth Congressional District

Tom Price was reelected unopposed.

Seventh Congressional District

Jody Hice (R) 60%
Doug Heckman (D) 40%

Eighth Congressional District

Austin Scott (R) 51%
Jim Marshall (D) 49%

R+25

Ninth Congressional District (Nathan Deal running for Governor)

Tom Graves (R) won the Republican primary and runoff and was elected in the general election unopposed.

Tenth Congressional District

Paul Broun (R) 70%
Russell Edwards (D) 33%

Eleventh Congressional District

Phil Gingrey elected unopposed.

Twelfth Congressional District

John Barrow (D) 50.05%
Ray McKinney (R) 49.95%

Thirteenth Congressional District

David Scott (D) 72%
Mike Crane (R) 28%

[NewYorkExpress]

Michigan

Governor (Jennifer Granholm term-limited. Granholm resigned on March 17, after being appointed to the U.S Court of Appeals, Sixth Circuit. Lieutenant Governor John Cherry was elevated to Governor, however, he was not a candidate for election.)

Mike Cox (R) 50%
Andy Dillon (D) 45%
Ken Proctor (L) 2%
Harley Mikkleson (G) 2%
Stacey Mathia (Taxpayers) 1%

R+1/D-2

First Congressional District (Bart Stupak running for Governor)

Jason Allen (R) 49%
Gary McDowell (D) 45%
Keith Shelton (L) 2%
Ellis Boal (G) 2%
Glenn Wilson (I) 2%

R+26

Second Congressional District

Bill Huizenga (R) 60%
Fred Johnson (D) 38%
Joseph Gillote (L) 1%
Lloyd Clarke (G) 1%

Third Congressional District (Vern Ehlers retiring)

Dick Posthumus (R) 55%
Patrick Miles Jr. (D) 43%
James Rogers (L) 1%
Charlie Shick (G) 1%

Fourth Congressional District (Dave Camp retiring)

John Moolenaar (R) 49%
Jerry Campbell (D) 46%
Clint Foster (L) 5%

Fifth Congressional District

Dale Kildee (D) 53%
John Kupiec (R) 43%
J. De Huis (G) 2%
Michael Moon (L) 2%

Sixth Congressional District (Fred Upton running for Lieutenant Governor)

Jack Hoogendyck (R) 47%
Don Cooney (D) 46%
Fred Strand (L) 5%
Pat Foster (G) 2%

Seventh Congressional District

Mark Schauer (D) 49%
Tim Walberg (R) 47%
Greg Merle (L) 3%
Richard Wunsch (G) 1%

Eighth Congressional District

Andy Meisner (D) 49%
Mike Rogers (R) 48.6%
Bhagwan Dashariya (L) 2.4%

R+25

Ninth Congressional District

Gary Peters (D) 67%
Rocky Raczkowski (D) 31%
Adam Goodman (L) 1%
Douglas Campbell (G) 1%

Tenth Congressional District

Candice Miller (R) 69%
Henry Yanez (D) 29%
Claude Beavers (L) 1.5%
Candace Caveny (G) 0.5%

Eleventh Congressional District

Marie Donigan (D) 51%
Thaddeus McCotter (R) 45%
John Tatar (L) 4%

R+24

Twelfth Congressional District

Sander Levin (D) 70%
Don Volaric (R) 19%
Julia Williams (G) 5%
Leonard Schwartz (L) 3%
Alan Jacquemotte (Natural Law) 3%

Thirteenth Congressional District (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick defeated in Democratic Primary)

Hansen Clarke (D) 80%
John Hauler (R) 11%
George Corsetti (G) 7%
Heidi Petersen (L) 2%

Fourteenth Congressional District (John Conyers ran for Mayor of Detroit in 2009 against Dave Bing. He did not win, however, he also did not run for reelection in 2010.)

Rashida Talib (D) 72%
Don Ukranic (R) 25%
Richard Secula (L) 3%

Fifteenth Congressional District

John Dingell (D) 64%
Rob Steele (R) 34%
Aimee Smith (G) 1.1%
Kerry Morgan (L) 0.9%

[NewYorkExpress]

Idaho

Governor

Butch Otter (R) 74%
Keith Allred (D) 23%
Ted Dunlap (L) 1.7%
Pro-Life (I) 1.3%

Senate

Mike Crapo (R) 80%
Tom Sullivan (D) 18%
Randy Bergquist (Constitution) 2%

First Congressional District

Raul Labrador (R) 49%
Walt Minnick (D) 47%
Mike Washburn (L) 4%

R+25

Second Congressional District

Mike Simpson (R) 77%
Mike Crawford (D) 21%
Brian Schad (I) 2%

Minnesota

Governor

Tim Pawlenty (R) 42%
Mark Dayton (D) 40%
Tom Horner (Independence) 12%
Farheen Hakeem (G) 5%
Chris Wright (Legalize Marijuana) 1%

Senate-Special

Keith Ellison (D) 44%
Norm Coleman (R) 43%
Tim Penny (Independence) 13%

D+4

First Congressional Districtls

Tim Walz (D) 47%
Randy Demmer (R) 45%
Steve Wilson (Independence) 8%

Second Congressional District

John Kline (R) 51%
Shelley Madore (D) 49%

Third Congressional District

Satveer Chaudhary (D) 49%
Erik Paulsen (R) 46%
Jon Olseon (Independence) 5%

R+23

Fourth Congressional District

Betty McCollum (D) 66%
Teresa Collett (R) 32%
Steve Carlson (Independence) 2%

Fifth Congressional District (Keith Ellison running for Senate)

Ilhan Omar (D) 67%
Joel Demos (R) 24%
Tom Schrunk (Independence) 9%

Sixth Congressional District (Michelle Bachmann retiring, has set up Presidential Exploratory Committee)

Tarryl Clark (D) 52%
Tom Emmer (R) 45%
Bob Andersen (Independence) 3%

R+22

Seventh Congressional District

Collin Petersen (D) 54%
Lee Byberg (R) 44%
Glen Menze (Independence) 2%

Eighth Congressional District (James Oberstar retiring)

Kent Eken (D) 49%
Chip Craavack (R) 46%
Timothy Olson (Independence) 2%
Richard Burton (Constitution) 2%

[NewYorkExpress]

I see the Squad are getting an early start.

AOC's still too young, so we've got a few years to go for her (I might consider having her mount a long-shot bid for Mayor of New York against De Blasio in 2013 though...).

Ayanna Pressley just got elected to the Boston City Council this year. With Scott Brown having been elected Governor of Massachusetts, she's already considering a run for Governor in 2014.

The focus for the next year or so will likely be on the building Republican field for the Presidential race (John Ashcroft, Frank Keating and Rick Santorum have already announced, and Michelle Bachmann will likely announce any day now, plus there's speculation swirling around Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee,Sarah Palin, and numerous others in the media.)

[NewYorkExpress]

About Ilhan Omar though...

In 2010 she was a junior at North Dakota State University. Just wondering what she did between '08 and '10 to make this possible.

In this TL she transferred to the university of Minnesota shortly after election day 2008.

Would you need any help with post-2010 district boundaries?

The boundaries for redistricting 2010 aren't going to be very different from IRL, as a matter of convenience for me.

If I were to continue beyond 2020, then we could talk about it,or if mid-decade redistricting comes up, which is very possible in states like Texas and North Carolina.

[NewYorkExpress]

Pennsylvania

Governor (Ed Rendell term-limited)

R+2/D-3

Tom Corbett (R) 50.55%
Dan Onoranto (D) 49.45%

Senate (Joe Hoeffel defeated in Democratic Primary)

Pat Toomey (R) 53%
Michael Nutter (D) 47%

D+3

First Congressional District

Bob Brady reelected unopposed.

Second Congressional District

Chaka Fattah (D) 90%
Rick Hellberg (R) 10%

Third Congressional District

Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 49%

Fourth Congressional District

Keith Rothfus (R) 53%
Jason Altmire (D) 47%

R+23

Fifth Congressional District

Glenn Thompson (R) 61%
Michael Pipe (D) 35%
Vernon Etzel (L) 4%

Sixth Congressional District

Jim Gerlach (R) 51%
Manan Trivedi (D) 49%

Seventh Congressional District

Joe Sestak (D) 55%
Pat Meehan (R) 45%

Eighth Congressional District

Mike Fitzpatrick (D) 52%
Patrick Murphy (R) 48%

R+24

Ninth Congressional District

Bill Shuster (R) 75%
Tom Connors (D) 25%

Tenth Congressional District

Tom Marino (R) 51%
Chris Carney (D) 49%

R+25

Eleventh Congressional District

Paul Kanjorski (D) 51%
Lou Barletta (R) 49%

Twelfth Congressional District (John Murtha died on February 8. A special election was scheduled for May, but was canceled, after only the Democratic Party nominated a candidate. Mark Critz, who was the Democratic nominee in that special was sworn in, after a deal was reached between Pennsylvania Democrats and Republicans to seat Critz, and not hold a special election and ran in the general election.)

Tim Burns (R) 51%
Mark Critz (D) 49%

R+26

Thirteenth Congressional District

Allyson Schwartz (D) 59%
Dee Adcock (R) 41%


Fourteenth Congressional District

Mike Doyle (D) 70%
Melissa Haluszczack (R) 29%
Ed Bortz (G) 1%

Fifteenth Congressional District

Charlie Dent (R) 52%
John Callahan (D) 48%

Sixteenth Congressional District (Joe Pitts retiring)

Jane Earll (R) 51%
Joseph Sinnott (D) 49%

Seventeenth Congressional District

Dave Argall (R) 50.75%
Tim Holden (D) 49.25%

R+27

Eighteenth Congressional District

Tim Murphy (R) 59%
Dan Connolly (D) 41%

Nineteenth Congressional District

Todd Platts (R) 65%
Ryan Sanders (D) 35%

[NewYorkExpress]

Ohio

Governor

John Kasich (R) 51%
Ted Strickland (D) 44%
Ken Matesz (L) 3%
Dennis Spisak (G) 2%

R+3/D-4

Senate (George Voinovich retiring)

Jennifer Brunner (D) 49%
Ken Blackwell (R) 46%
Eric Deaton (Constitution) 3%
Daniel LaBotz (Socialist) 1%

D+4

First Congressional District (Steven Dreihaus running for Secretary of State of Ohio)

Mark Mallory (D) 50%
Steve Chabot (R) 47%
Jim Berns (L) 2%
Richard Stevenson (G) 1%

Second Congressional District

Jean Schmidt (R) 56%
Surya Yalamanchili (D) 41%
Marc Johnston (L) 3%

Third Congressional District

Mike Turner (R) 64%
Joe Roberts (D) 36%

Fourth Congressional District

Jim Jordan (R) 71%
Doug Litt (D) 27%
Donald Kissick (L) 2%

Fifth Congressional District

Bob Latta (R) 67%
Caleb Finkenbeiner (D) 31%
Brian Smith (L) 2%

Sixth Congressional District

Bill Johnson (R) 57%
Charlie Wilson (D) 40%
Martin Elnass (L) 2%
Richard Cadle (Constitution) 1%

R+28

Seventh Congressional District

Steve Austria (R) 59%
Bill Conner (D) 39%
John Anderson (L) 1%
David Easton (Constitution) 1%

Eighth Congressional District (John Boehner defeated in Republican Primary)

Keith Faber (R) 70%
Justin Coussoule (D) 25%
David Harlow (L) 3%
James Condit Jr. (Constitution) 2%

Ninth Congressional District

Marcy Kaptur (D) 68%
Rich Iott (R) 32%

Tenth Congressional District (Dennis Kucinich running for Senate)

Jane Campbell (D) 59%
Peter Corrigan (R) 37%
Jeff Goggins (L) 4%

Eleventh Congressional District

Marcia Fudge (D) 90%
Thomas Pekarek (R) 10%

Twelfth Congressional District

Paula Brooks (D) 51%
Pat Tiberi (R) 47%
Travis Irvine (L) 2%

R+27

Thirteenth Congressional District

Betty Sutton (D) 60%
Tom Ganley (R) 40%

Fourteenth Congressional District

William O'Neil (D) 49%
Steven LaTourette (D) 48.6%
John Jelenic (L) 2.4%

R+26

Fifteenth Congressional District

Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 49%
Steve Stivers (R) 46%
David Ryon (Constitution) 4%
William Kammerer (L) 1%

Sixteenth Congressional District

John Boccieri (D) 48%
Jim Renacci (R) 46%
Jeffery Blevins (L) 6%

Seventeenth Congressional District

Tim Ryan (D) 61%
Jim Traficant (I) 25%
Jim Graham (R) 14%

Eighteenth Congressional District

Bob Gibbs (R) 49%
Zack Space (D) 48%
Lindsey Sutton (Constitution) 3%

R+27

[NewYorkExpress]

Still, it is near impossible for a college student to be elected to congress.

Near impossible, yes. However, more of Minneapolis's power brokers were interested in running against Ellison for Governor or in the Special election against Norm Coleman than they were running for the seat he was vacating.

Omar defeated State Representative Raymond Dehn and Minneapolis City Councilwoman Elizabeth Glidden in the DFL Primary, getting 39% of the vote to Glidden's 36% and Dehn's 25%.

[NewYorkExpress]

Washington

Senate

Patty Murray (D) 55%
Dino Rossi (R) 45%

First Congressional District

Jay Inslee (D) 64%
James Watkins (R) 36%

Second Congressional District

Rick Larsen (D) 55%
John Koster (R) 45%

Third Congressional District (Brian Baird retiring)

Dennis Heck (D) 51%
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 49%

Fourth Congressional District

Doc Hastings (R) 60%
Jay Clough (D) 40%

Fifth Congressional District

Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 61%
Daryl Romeyn (D) 39%

Sixth Congressional District

Norm Dicks (D) 64%
Doug Cloud (R) 36%

Seventh Congressional District (Jim McDermott retiring)

Pramila Jayapal (D) 52%
Bruce Harrell (D) 48%

Eighth Congressional District

Suzan DelBene (D) 51%
Dave Reichert (R) 49%

R+26

Ninth Congressional District

Adam Smith (D) 60%
Dick Muri (R) 40%

Oregon

Governor

Sam Adams (D) 55%
Chris Dudley (R) 43%
Wes Wagner (L) 1%
Greg Kord (Constiution) 1%

Senate

Ron Wyden (D) 67%
Jim Huffman (R) 23%
Marc Delphine (L) 5%
Rick Staggenborg (Progressive) 3%
Bruce Cronk (WFP) 2%

First Congressional District

David Wu (D) 50%
Rob Cornilles (R) 44%
H. Joe Tabor (L) 4%
Don LaMunyon (Constitution) 1%
Chris Henry (G) 1%

Second Congressional District

Greg Walden (R) 63%
Joyce Segars (D) 37%

Third Congressional District

Earl Blumenauer (D) 65%
Delia Lopez (R) 31%
Jeff Lawrence (L) 3%
Michael Meo (G) 1%

Fourth Congressional District

Peter DeFazio won reelection unopposed.

Fifth Congressional District

Kurt Schrader (D) 54%
Scott Brunn (R) 45%
Chris Lugo (G) 1%