Challenge and Choice, an Obama TL

[NewYorkExpress]

On March 11, a magnitude 9.0 Earthquake off the coast of Japan, caused a tsunami and a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. 16,679 people died in the Tsunami, and another 1,086 died in Fukushima as a result of the meltdown in the nuclear power plant.

The disaster, and the paralyzingly slow response, led to the fall of the government in Japan, as Prime Minister Keiko Chiba resigned, and was replaced with Naoto Kan as Prime Minister.

Shortstop Derek Jeter signed a contract for the highest annual value in baseball history, when on February 22, when he signed a two year $85 million deal to return to the New York Yankees. This caused President Obama to opine that night on The Late Show with David Letterman that Major League Baseball needed a salary cap. Hillary Clinton, echoing those sentiments, introduced legislation to the floor of the United States Senate, requiring all professional sports leagues operating in the United States to have a salary cap and a salary floor, but the bill did not make it out of committee, and the chair of the Senate Commerce Committee, John Rockefeller, scolded Clinton on the Senate floor for wasting the committee's time.

On February 25, a scare happened when three secret service agents were shot two blocks from  Joe Biden's Wilmington residence, by a woman who was "obsessed" with Biden and "dreamed of being with him" according to the press statement put out by the Secret Service. Biden and his wife were not present at the time (he was in Washington, she was Kansas City,Missouri campaigning for Sly James in the Mayoral election there), and, according the Secret Service, were in no danger. The woman, a twenty-two year old from Wilmington was charged with two counts of murder, one count of attempted murder, and despite speculation that she was going to attempt to kill Vice President, the prosecutors did not charge her for that. The prosecution indicated that they did not wish to pursue the death penalty (at the request of Vice President Biden, the intended victim), and the woman was found guilty on all counts. In December of 2011, Federal Judge Gregory Sleet sentenced her to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

[NewYorkExpress]

At this juncture in the Republican Presidential race, most were still waiting on decisions from Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump. Of the four, Romney had the most to lose, potentially, as he was also up for election to a full term as a Senator in 2012. On February 25, he announced that he would run for reelection, and would not run for President.

Palin, by contrast had little to lose. Many Republicans blamed her for costing John McCain the Presidency, however, she was idolized by the Tea Party, which had successfully knocked off McCain, Lisa Murkowski and John Boehner in 2010. Palin, well aware of what her run for the Vice Presidency had done to her political brand, had her eyes on the Senate race in 2014, and on March 6, she too announced would not run, and the next day, endorsed Michelle Bachmann at a campaign stop in Waterloo, Iowa, giving Bachmann the credibility of the Tea Party's unquestioned leader.

Huckabee had dithered for months, and had found his lane in the primaries taken, first by Santorum, and then by Allen and Frist. He too would announce that he was not running on March 5 on his Fox News program.

Trump meanwhile, took every step possible to prepare for a run,commissioning polls, traveling to early states, even hiring staff. In Early March, he told NBC Executives that he would be leaving The Apprentice to pursue a Presidential bid. On March 16, Donald Trump announced, at Trump Tower in New York, that he would be seeking the Presidency as a Republican. His speech drew attention for the number of profanities used (sixty-four), calling Mexicans "rapists and murderers", calling for a ban on Muslims entering the United States, and expelling any Muslims already in the United States, and suggesting the United States should use a nuclear weapon on Mecca. His speech was loudly criticized by every other candidate, and John McCain summed up most politicians and other observers thoughts when he said in a Twitter post that Trump should "drop dead". In a second post, he suggested that President Obama should refuse to allow the Secret Service to protect Trump in the event he became the Republican nominee.

Republican Primary Head to Head vs Obama (As of March 20, 2011)

Jeb Bush 46%
Barack Obama 46%

Condolezza Rice 49%
Barack Obama 45%

Mitch Daniels 49%
Barack Obama 45%

Christine Todd Whitman 48%
Barack Obama 46%

Barack Obama 47%
George Allen 45%

Barack Obama 47%
Bill Frist 46%

Barack Obama 48%
Haley Barbour 44%

Barack Obama 48%
Newt Gingrich 43%

Barack Obama 49%
Rick Santorum 40%

Barack Obama 49%
Michelle Bachmann 39%

Barack Obama 50%
Ron Paul 37%

Barack Obama 51%
Donald Trump 32%

[NewYorkExpress]

With Donald Trump's bombastic entrance into the Presidential race the Republican Party found itself under pressure to do something, as pretty much every candidate (with the exception of Bachmann) refused to debate him. As such, on March 24, RNC Chairman Michael Steele announced that any network that aired a debate or candidate forum that included Trump would be blacklisted by the Republican Party both in the 2012 election and in future elections.

In response to the purported insult he received, Trump initially filed to run as an Independent, but after an organized movement to keep him the ballot by both parties took shape, dropped out in July 2011.

Secretary of State Leon Panetta announced his retirement, effective upon the confirmation of a successor. President Obama nominated former Ambassador to China Joseph Prueher, who earned confirmation 98-1 (John Huntsman abstained, Rick Scott voted no).

In the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, the Gonzaga Bulldogs defeated the Butler Bulldogs 59-55, to win their first title.

In the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament the UConn Huskies defeated the Tennessee Lady Volunteers 80-69,for their seventh National Championship, and third in a row.

Rory McIlroy won The Masters, the first Major in Golf, with a -17 271, four shots ahead of Tiger Woods, Angel Cabrera, and Adam Scott.

[NewYorkExpress]

The fifth Republican Presidential debate took place on March 27, at Bob Jones University, in Greenville, South Carolina. Almost immediately, the choice of venue drew criticism, when the university tried to block Christine Todd Whitman and Condolezza Rice from appearing at the debate, citing their pro-choice views. RNC Chairman Michael Steele stepped in and threatened to cancel the debate if Whitman and Rice were barred from appearing, and the university backed down.

The debate was moderated by Megyn Kelly and Bill O'Reilly and was aired on Fox News and Fox.

The first question, from O'Reilly, was to Whitman and Rice, and asked if they believed a pro-choice candidate could be successful in a Republican Primary. Whitman answered that the party needed to be a big tent to be successful in a Presidential election, while Rice pointed out that she had viewpoints on other issues, such as gun control that were more in line with the base. Santorum responded that abortion and same-sex marriage were litmus tests for Republicans and that anyone who supported them were "not Republicans in any way, shape, or form".

The second question, from Kelly, was to Rice, asking if she would have approved of the American incursion into Pakistan to arrest Pervez Musharraf, Nadeem Taj and Ashfaq Kayani back in November. Rice answered that she would have. Bush responded that he thought it was a mistake to send American troops into a country that had nuclear weapons stating that it was "a nuclear war waiting to happen".

The third question, from Kelly was to all the candidates, asking if they would appoint judges that would overturn Roe v. Wade. All accept Rice, Paul and Whitman said yes. Rice said she would appoint judges who made decisions based on the merits of the case they were deciding on the time, not based on any political reality, while Whitman said she felt there were issues other than abortion that the court should address at the present time. Ron Paul, meanwhile, said abortion was for the states to decide, which got him criticism from Sanatorium, Frist and Bachmann.

The fourth question, from O'Reilly, was also to all the candidates, asking if they would support an amendment to the Constitution banning burning the United States flag. All except Ron Paul said yes. Paul said he didn't support amending the Constitution for any reason, while Santorum suggested that flag burners should "be sent to gas chambers" which drew heavy criticism from Holocaust remembrance groups, President Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The fifth question, from Kelly, was to all the candidates, asking, if they were pro-life, how could they support the Death Penalty? Rice and Whitman pointed out they weren't exclusively pro-life, while Paul said the state didn't have the right to take life away. Everyone else ducked the question, for the most part.

The sixth and final question, from O'Reilly was to all the candidates, asking if they would reinstate the Mexico City policy, discontinued by President Obama, that blocked federal funding for NGO's that provided abortion services. Rice and Paul said they wouldn't, Whitman declined to answer, and all other candidates said they would.

Facing declining polling numbers, and having committed major gaffes in three of the first four debates, Rick Santorum suspended campaign for President on April 9. He pledged to endorse the winner of the Iowa Caucuses, in his withdrawal speech.

[NewYorkExpress]

The next big event in the Republican Presidential race, was Mitch Daniels's victory at the CPAC straw poll, where he won with 29% of the vote to Michelle Bachmann and Jeb Bush's 21%.

Meanwhile, the off-year election cycle began to heat up. Most observers regarded these elections as foreshadowing just how well President Obama would do in 2012.

First on the docket, was the Gubernatorial election in Kentucky, being held on May 17. The incumbent, Steve Beshear was running for reelection, albeit with a new running mate, after Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo's failed Senate bid in 2010. He'd named 2008 Senate nominee Bruce Lunsford as his running mate.  Republicans had a crowded field of candidates hoping to take on Beshear, and several of them were posting leads over Beshear in early polling.

Kentucky-Governor-Republican Primary

Physician, 2008 Senate candidate Rand Paul 44%
Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer 22%
Former Representative Anne Northrup 21%
State Senator Brandon Smith 13%

Polling-Kentucky Governor (As of July 4, from PPP)

Rand Paul (R) 43%
Steve Beshear (D) 39%
Gatewood Galbraith (I) 9%
Undecided/Other 9%

[NewYorkExpress]

After intense lobbying from most of the Republican candidates (especially Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels) the Republican Party agreed to cancel all primary debates until October, meaning the next major event in the primaries would be the Ames Straw Poll. Three candidates, Condolezza  Rice, Christine Todd Whitman and Ron Paul did not compete in the Straw poll, and the winner ended up being Michelle Bachmann, with 15% of the vote, to Mitch Daniels's 13% and George Allen's 11%.

Meanwhile, in Italy, the Government of Silvio Berlusiconi fell after the rejection of the budget by the Chamber of Deputies, and the Government's defeat in a confidence vote, with a majority of his coalition joining the opposition to bring down his government, forcing Berlusconi's resignation He was replaced as Prime Minister by his Minister of Economy and Finance, Guilio Tremonti, who would lead the coalition into elections in 2013.

In sporting news, Chelsea won the UEFA Champions League Final, held at the Stade Giuseppe Meazza in Milan over Bayern Munich 3-1.

In the Europa League Final, held at Hampden Park, in Glasgow, Borussia Dortmund defeated Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0.

Republican Primary Numbers (As of Memorial Day, 2011)

Mitch Daniels 20%
Jeb Bush 15%
Condolezza Rice 12%
Haley Barbour 9%
George Allen 8%
Bill Frist 7%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Christine Todd Whitman 3%
Ron Paul 2%

Iowa

Michelle Bachmann 24%
Mitch Daniels 15%
Condolezza Rice 9%
George Allen 8%
Bill Frist 7%
Jeb Bush 7%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Christine Todd Whitman 2%
Haley Barbour 2%
Ron Paul 1%

New Hampshire

Mitch Daniels 18%
Jeb Bush 15%
Ron Paul 9%
Michelle Bachmann 8%
Condolezza Rice 8%
Bill Frist 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
George Allen 5%
Haley Barbour 3%
Christine Todd Whitman 1%

South Carolina

Newt Gingrich 19%
George Allen 17%
Bill Frist 13%
Michelle Bachmann 11%
Condolezza Rice 9%
Jeb Bush 8%
Haley Barbour 7%
Mitch Daniels 4%
Christine Todd Whitman 2%
Ron Paul 0%

Nevada

Mitch Daniels 17%
Condolezza Rice 16%
Jeb Bush 13%
Michelle Bachmann 11%
Haley Barbour 10%
Mitch Daniels 9%
Christine Todd Whitman 5%
Ron Paul 5%
George Allen 3%
Bill Frist 2%
Newt Gingrich 1%


Florida

Jeb Bush 51%
Condolezza Rice 14%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Mitch Daniels 9%
Newt Gingrich 6%
George Allen 3%
Bill Frist 3%
Michelle Bachmann 1%
Christine Todd Whitman 0%
Ron Paul 0%

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats in Congress continued to attempt to pass an ambitious agenda through Congress. Their next project was a revamping of the Voting Rights Act. The act, which eliminated any sunset provisions in the act, required all fifty states to get preclearence from the Justice Department before making changes to voting procedures or adopting new maps in redistricting, and added religious minorities to the list of groups protected by the Voting Rights Act, passed the House 219-199 on April 21. It ran into a wall of opposition in the Senate, as Jim DeMint, Dick Armey, and Jeff Sessions led a fillibuster against it, and it ultimately failed to get clouture in the Senate, 57-38 (Bruce Botelho, John Melancon and Mary Landreiu joined with the Republicans), on June 9.

Meanwhile, gunmen linked to Vladimir Putin attempted to assassinate Anderson Cooper in New York City on April 17, after he alleged that the Russian Government was responsible for the death of Garry Kasparov and numerous other political opponents of Vladimir Putin on Anderson Cooper 360, the previous Friday. In response, President Obama announced that there would be a travel ban on individuals coming to and from Russia.

Parliamentary Elections were held in Ireland on February 25. The Finnia Fail Government had been falling apart over Eurozone bailout requirements, and it was largely expected that not only would they lose their majority, but that they would lose their position as one of the Big Three parties in Ireland.

Ireland General Election-Dail Eireann

Fine Gael- Enda Kenny: 79 seats
Labour- Eamon Gilmore:  34 seats
Sinn Fein- Gerry Adams: 28 seats
Fianna Fail- Michael Martin: 16 seats
John Gormley- Green: 8 seats
Seamus Healy- Workers and Unemployed Action: 1 seat

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail came to a coalition agreement on March 2.

[NewYorkExpress]

On April 26, after a delay at the request of COMMEBOL President Nicolas Leoz, FIFA leadership met to award the 2018 and 2022 World Cup.

The 2018 World Cup was awarded to a joint bid of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (while all of the games would be in either England, Scotland or Wales, a national team training base would be in Belfast, as would a FIFA fanzone. Wembley Stadium was stated to host the final, while the Semifinal games would be at Old Trafford in Manchester and Ibrox Stadium in Glasgow.), while the 2022 World Cup was awarded to a joint bid of the United States, Mexico and Canada (the final and third place game would take place at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, with the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles, and Soldier Field in Chicago hosting the two semifinal matches).

Meanwhile, Americans were sent into a fresh wave of mourning as former President George H.W Bush died on May 1, at 85 years old after falling down the stairs at his home in Houston.

On May 2, Canadian voters went to the polls after the defeat of the budget caused the dissolution of the government.

Canada-Parliament

New Democratic Party- Jack Layton: 130 seats
Stephen Harper- Conservative: 121 seats
Michael Igniateff-Liberal: 40 seats
Gilles Duceppe- Bloc Quebecois 16 seats
Elizabeth May-Green: 1 seat.

The result, a hung parliament, nearly caused another election. However, on May 27, Layton was able to form a minority government.

[NewYorkExpress]

On May 18, Ambassador to China Clark Randt announced his resignation (Randt had been reappointed by President Obama,after the Administration's first choice, Jon Hunstman, declined the position) to become a professor at the University of Hong Kong. President Obama nominated, on June 1, Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) as Randt's replacement. Baucus was confirmed by the Senate 77-2 (Jon Huntsman and Richard Lugar both voted against the nomination), on July 18.

Meanwhile, in New York, Governor David Paterson was forced to resign on June 16, after being caught threatening to have a lobbyist killed, because he was being "annoying". Paterson's resignation made Gary Ackerman the Governor of New York. Ackerman expressed little interest in running for reelection in 2014, stating to Newsday that he viewed the Governor's mansion as a three-year rental.

Meanwhile, following an eleven-month investigation into the bidding procedures and the sale of television rights for the 2006, 2010 and 2014 FIFA World Cups, the Justice Department arrested the President of FIFA, Sepp Blatter, the President of CONCACAF, and the Minister of National Security of Trinidad and Tobago, Jack Warner, UEFA President Michel Platini, and the President of the United States Soccer Federation, Sunil Gulati. Each were charged with a superseding indictment of enterprise corruption, under federal RICO statutes. Each were sentenced by District Court Judge Kimba Wood to fifteen to thirty years in federal prison.

[NewYorkExpress]

On July 27, following days of speculation over the vacant Senate seat in Montana (thanks to Max Baucus's confirmation as Ambassador to China), Governor Brian Schweitzer announced that he would appoint Attorney General Steve Bullock as Baucus's replacement in the Senate. Bullock would face the voters in a special election in 2012.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Robert Menendez was indicted on by a federal grand jury over taking bribes from Opthamologist Saloman Melgen to advance his business interests. Menendez was found guilty of bribery and perjury on November 12, and was sentenced by Federal Judge William Walls to two years in prison. Menendez resigned from the Senate that day. On November 16, Governor Chris Christie appointed State Assemblyman Jon Bramnick to the vacant Senate seat, giving Republicans a Senate gain.

Following a poor result in the Ames Straw Poll, Newt Gingrich suspended his campaign for President on September 2, endorsing Jeb Bush.

[NewYorkExpress]

On July 27, following days of speculation over the vacant Senate seat in Montana (thanks to Max Baucus's confirmation as Ambassador to China), Governor Brian Schweitzer announced that he would appoint Attorney General Steve Bullock as Baucus's replacement in the Senate. Bullock would face the voters in a special election in 2012.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Robert Menendez was indicted on by a federal grand jury over taking bribes from Opthamologist Saloman Melgen to advance his business interests. Menendez was found guilty of bribery and perjury on November 12, and was sentenced by Federal Judge William Walls to two years in prison. Menendez resigned from the Senate that day. On November 16, Governor Chris Christie appointed State Assemblyman Jon Bramnick to the vacant Senate seat, giving Republicans a Senate gain.

Following a poor result in the Ames Straw Poll, Newt Gingrich suspended his campaign for President on September 2, endorsing Jeb Bush.

Let's go Jon!!!

I haven't actually decided who Bramnick will face in 2012, or for that matter if he'll even run for reelection (it's not out of the realm of possibility Christie runs for the seat.)

[NewYorkExpress]

On July 27, following days of speculation over the vacant Senate seat in Montana (thanks to Max Baucus's confirmation as Ambassador to China), Governor Brian Schweitzer announced that he would appoint Attorney General Steve Bullock as Baucus's replacement in the Senate. Bullock would face the voters in a special election in 2012.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Robert Menendez was indicted on by a federal grand jury over taking bribes from Opthamologist Saloman Melgen to advance his business interests. Menendez was found guilty of bribery and perjury on November 12, and was sentenced by Federal Judge William Walls to two years in prison. Menendez resigned from the Senate that day. On November 16, Governor Chris Christie appointed State Assemblyman Jon Bramnick to the vacant Senate seat, giving Republicans a Senate gain.

Following a poor result in the Ames Straw Poll, Newt Gingrich suspended his campaign for President on September 2, endorsing Jeb Bush.

I don't see why Menendez would resign.

IRL, Menendez was acquitted. Here, he was found guilty. Now, assuming a case similar to McDonnell v. United States eventually reaches the Supreme Court, it's very possible that Menendez's conviction could be overturned on appeal (of the current justices, all but Loretta Lynch have expressed support, either in a legal opinion, or in a public forum for looking at the Federal Bribery statutes, while the position of the soon to be sworn in Justice, Denny Chin, is on the issue is currently unknown.).

[NewYorkExpress]

I know. I'm just saying it is entirely possible he doesn't resign in the first place, as convicted Senators don't have to resign (Ted Kennedy is an example of this, when what he did was worse). The Dem majority (knowing Chris Christie) would block any votes for expulsion.

True, but Democrats, barring a really bad nominee should win the seat back in 2012.

[NewYorkExpress]

On August 2, voters went to the polls to select the nominees for the next Governor of Mississippi. The incumbent, Haley Barbour was term-limited and running for President. Both parties had serious candidates running. Democrats did not expect to be seriously competitive here (compared to Kentucky, where they had an incumbent running), but they had multiple candidates who were polling surprisingly well heading into the primary. In either primary, if no candidate reached a majority of the vote, they would head to a runoff three weeks later.

Mississippi Governor-Democratic Primary

Former Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy 52%
Hatttiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree 44%
Former Tax Assessor Guy Dale Shaw 4%

Mississippi Governor-Republican Primary

Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant 36%
Pearl River County Supervisor Hudson Holliday 15%
Former Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck 14%
Contractor Dave Dennis 11%
State Representative Charles Beckett 10%
Small Business Owner, Minister, James Broadwater 8%
CEO of the International Sibling Society Cindy Burleson 6%

Mississippi Governor-Republican Primary-Runoff

Phil Bryant 61%
Hudson Holliday 39%

Polling outlook for the off year elections (as of September 1, 2011)

Kentucky-PPP

Rand Paul (R) 42%
Steve Beshear 40%
Gatewood Galbraith (I) 9%
Undecided/Other 9%

Mississippi-Rasmussen

Phil Bryant (R) 48%
Mike Espy (D) 43%
Undecided/Other 9%

Louisiana/PPP

Bobby Jindal (R) 48%
Generic Democrat 46%
Undecided/Other 6%

[NewYorkExpress]

On September 10, the Supreme Court once again became a front and center issue as Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he would retire the following June. This gave President Obama the opportunity to appoint a fifth Supreme Court Justice, and despite early speculation that Obama would appoint either Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar, he chose to instead nominate the U.S Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Preet Bharara. Unlike his former colleague, Loretta Lynch, Bharara's nomination drew fire from both sides of the aisle for  his methods in prosecuting cases, and he struggled to make it out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, with Harry Reid (with Mitch McConnell's tacit approval), agreeing to skip committee hearings, and give Bharara a straight up-or-down vote in the Senate. After a brief fillibuster attempt by Jeff Sessions, which was broken 80-9, Bharara's nomination was defeated in the Senate 46-49, as he became the first Supreme Court nominee to be defeated in the Senate since Robert Bork, on October 12. Undaunted, President Obama tried again, this time nominating former Deputy Attorney General James Comey on October 27. Comey was considered a controversial pick on the left, given his ties to the Bush Administration, however Republicans had little opposition to him, as he would not alter the balance of ideology on the court (which was 6-3 in favor of the liberal wing, with Garland, Kennedy and Roberts serving as swing votes). Comey easily cleared the Judiciary Committee, and was confirmed by the Senate on December 4, 89-3 (Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and John Kerry were the three votes against Comey.)

State of the Republican Presidential race(as of September 31, 2011)

Iowa

Michelle Bachmann 23%
Mitch Daniels 15%
Jeb Bush 13%
George Allen 10%
Bill Frist 8%
Haley Barbour 7%
Condolezza Rice 7%
Christine Todd Whitman 3%
Ron Paul 2%

New Hampshire

Jeb Bush 18%
Ron Paul 16%
Mitch Daniels 15%
Condolezza Rice 9%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
George Allen 6%
Bill Frist 6%
Christine Todd Whitman 5%
Haley Barbour 3%

Nevada

Jeb Bush 20%
Mitch Daniels 17%
Condolezza Rice 15%
Ron Paul 10%
George Allen 6%
Bill Frist 6%
Christine Todd Whitman 3%
Haley Barbour 3%
Michelle Bachmann 3%

South Carolina

Jeb Bush 17%
Condolezza Rice 16%
Mitch Daniels 16%
Michelle Bachmann 13%
George Allen 8%
Bill Frist 7%
Haley Barbour 6%
Ron Paul 2%
Christine Todd Whitman 0%

Florida

Jeb Bush 55%
Condolezza Rice 17%
Mitch Daniels 9%
George Allen 7%
Bill Frist 6%
Haley Barbour 5%
Michelle Bachmann 4%
Christine Todd Whitman 2%
Ron Paul 1%

[NewYorkExpress]

On October 1, the sixth Republican Presidential debate was held at Harrah's Council Bluffs, in Council Bluffs, Iowa. The debate was aired on PBS, and was moderated by Judy Woodruff and Gwen Ifill. Bill Frist and George Allen refused to attend the debate, citing it being held in a casino, while Christine Todd Whitman and Ron Paul were not invited due to poor polling in Iowa.

The first question, from Ifill, was about Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Betsy Devos's statements that, in light of President Obama being able to make five Supreme Court appointments (Preet Bharara's nomination had been announced, but had yet to be voted on at the time of the debate), that Republicans needed to "pack the courts as soon we have all three branches of government". Bachmann said that Republicans needed to go further and impeach the justices in the liberal wing as well, while Rice and Daniels each said that an arms race over the Supreme Court helped no one. Bush and Barbour largely ducked the question.

The second question, from Woodruff, asked if the candidates supported an initiative announced by Secretary of Defense Zinni to allow women in combat roles. Bachmann said yes, as she believed a woman could do a military job as well as a man, Rice said yes, depending on the situation, while Bush said, yes, though he suggested all-female combat units instead of mixed-gender units. Barbour said no, while Daniels declined to answer the question.

The third question, from Woodruff, asked if they would support legalization of sports betting on the federal level (legislation to that effect was pending in the Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Illinois and California legislatures). All except Rice said no.

The fourth question, from Ifill asked if they would support a Constitutional Amendment to recall Federal Officeholders. All except Rice said yes, while Rice said, that while more states should pass the recall, she did not think an amendment allowing for recalls of Representatives, Senators or the President would receive the required majorities in Congress.

The Fifth Question, from Ifill, asked if the candidates supported ethanol subsides. Bachmann said no, stating that oil and coal should be the only fuels Americans use. Everyone else said yes.

Over the Summer, Football (Soccer) had several showpiece international events.

In the CONCACAF Gold Cup, Jamaica defeated the United States in the final 2-0, behind two goals by Dane Phillips.

In the Copa America, Argentina defeated Brazil 1-0 in extra time, behind a goal with nine seconds left before the game went to a penalty shootout by Lionel Messi.

In the Women's World Cup, Japan defeated The United States 4-1, a dramatic national triumph following the earthquake and nuclear meltdown in Fukushima.

[NewYorkExpress]

On September 19, Jared Lee Loughner shot and killed thirty-seven people at a fundraiser for Senator Gabrielle Giffords in Douglas. The rampage was only stopped when Giffords grabbed the gun of a dead member of her security team and shot and killed Loughner, saving her own life and the lives of nineteen others. After a short time away from Washington to destress, Giffords  returned to the Senate, and introduced a Constitutional Amendment that would repeal the Second Amendment in it's entirety, on October 9. The Amendment failed in the Senate, 21-77. Undaunted, Giffords stated that she would introduce it every year until it passed, stating in an interview with Wolf Blitzer that "my experience taught me that the Second Amendment must go."

PPP poll on Gun Rights (in the field from September 31-October 2)

Should the Second Amendment be repealed?

Yes 50%
No 44%

Opinion of the National Rifle Association

Approve 34%
Disapprove 49%

Opinion of Gabrielle Giffords

Approve 42%
Disapprove 44%

[NewYorkExpress]

On September 19, Jared Lee Loughner shot and killed thirty-seven people at a fundraiser for Senator Gabrielle Giffords in Douglas. The rampage was only stopped when Giffords grabbed the gun of a dead member of her security team and shot and killed Loughner, saving her own life and the lives of nineteen others. After a short time away from Washington to destress, Giffords  returned to the Senate, and introduced a Constitutional Amendment that would repeal the Second Amendment in it's entirety, on October 9. The Amendment failed in the Senate, 21-77. Undaunted, Giffords stated that she would introduce it every year until it passed, stating in an interview with Wolf Blitzer that "my experience taught me that the Second Amendment must go."

PPP poll on Gun Rights (in the field from September 31-October 2)

Should the Second Amendment be repealed?

Yes 50%
No 44%

Opinion of the National Rifle Association

Approve 34%
Disapprove 49%

Opinion of Gabrielle Giffords

Approve 42%
Disapprove 44%

It sounds like Gifford could have been the most popular politician after the shooting, but then squandered it immediately afterwards

That's pretty much what attempting to repeal the Second Amendment will get you.

[NewYorkExpress]

Over the summer of 2011, as America's attention focused on the slowly building Presidential race, several different events happened in international politics, that had dramatic repercussions.

The Sinaloa Cartel assassinated Mexican President Felipe Calderon, Interior Secretary Jose Francisco Blake Mora, Attorney General Marisela Morales, Secretary of the Navy Mariano Saynez and Secretary of Defense Gullimero Galvan Galvan in a coordinated assault involving one hundred armed gunmenn, and two car bombs on September 16.

At the request of Mexico's Ambassador to the United States, Arturo Sarukhan, President Obama asked Congress for permission to send 250,000 troops into Mexico to crush the cartels and reestablish a working government in Mexico. The resolution allowing Obama to send troops to Mexico passed the House 300-119 on September 29, and passed the Senate 58-22 on October 12.

Congress had, when drafting the Authorization, put in a restriction on how long the troops could stay in Mexico. Under the Authorization of force passed, the troops could only stay until the general elections there, which would be held at the beginning of July, 2012. If President Obama wanted them stay beyond that, he would have to go back to Congress for another Authorization of Force.

[NewYorkExpress]

Did the Bin-Laden raid happen? I forget.

Yes. The Bin Laden raid happened in March of 2009 and was successful. A couple of years later, the Administration found out via the British Newspapers, that the Pakistani Government of the time had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in Afghanistan, and had attempted to cover it up, leading to an operation to bring the former government officials responsible to the United States to face trial, which also was successful.

[NewYorkExpress]

It only took until Halloween for the American troops in Mexico to have success in combating the cartels. In a joint raid with the remaining elements of the Mexican Army, the American forces, led by Lieutenant General Frank Helmick, successfully killed or captured the entire leadership structure of every Mexican Cartel, as well as 80% of the footsoliders of the cartels, essentially leaving them leaderless, at the cost of just 17 dead American soldiers, and 56 wounded American soldiers. Helmick and Obama received significant blowback when Mexican soldiers under his command proceeded to kill all of the captured prisoners, scuttling plans to bring them to the United States for trial. Still, the troops (or at least the survivors) were able to come home by Christmas, and while Obama wasn't able to rebuild the Mexican Government, he had ensured that there would be a safe and secure Mexico ahead of the 2012 elections there.

Meanwhile, the off year elections in 2011, were taking place, and Democrats were expecting modest losses. The three Gubernatorial elections in Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi would dominate the attention.

Kentucky-Governor

Rand Paul (R) 47%
Steve Beshear (D) 45%
Gatewood Galbraith (I) 8%

R+1

Mississippi-Governor (Haley Barbour term-limited, running for President)

Phil Bryant (R) 52%
Mike Espy (D) 48%


Louisiana-Governor

Bobby Jindal (R) 24%
Caroline Fayard (D) 22%
Cleo Fields (D) 21%
Troy Carter (D) 18%
Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 9%
David Duke (R) 6%

Republicans could celebrate picking up the Governor's mansion in Kentucky (though many were very unhappy about just who had won that race, as Rand Paul was not popular within the Kentucky Republican Party), while Democrats could celebrate getting as close as they did in Mississippi, and forcing the race in Louisiana to a runoff, while lamenting the reality, that if they'd united around one candidate, they wouldn't be going to a runoff to begin with.

[NewYorkExpress]

Following the success in Mexico, Secretary of Defense Anthony Zinni decided it was time for him to retire, announcing he would do so by New Year's Day. President Obama nominated the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hugh Shelton, on December 2. Shelton was confirmed by the full Senate 66-27, on January 7, 2012.

On November 9, Christine Todd Whitman, citing poor polling, suspended her campaign for President, and endorsed Condoleeza Rice at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire.

On December 7, the Supreme Court ruled in a 5-4 decision, that Obamacare was considered constitutional. (Lynch,Garland,Sotomayor, Chin and Roberts were the majority).Merrick Garland's majority opinion that the individual mandate was neither a tax or a penalty was widely panned on both the left and the right, while Samuel Alito's fiery dissent drew rave reviews on the right wing of the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, in the Sporting World, the New York Yankees defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in five games to win the World Series.

[NewYorkExpress]

The Louisiana Gubernatorial runoff between Bobby Jindal and Caroline Fayard was marked by an energetic campaign from Fayard, and struggles for the unpopular Jindal (who had been considered a possible 2012 Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate. He'd never really denied the speculation, and the speculation was hurting his standing at home). However, the Republican base, which largely sat out the first round came home to support Jindal in the runoff, and Republican Presidential candidates Haley Barbour, Bill Frist and Jeb Bush came to Louisiana to campaign for Jindal, providing the difference in the runoff.

Lousiana-Governor-Runoff

Bobby Jindal (R) 52%
Caroline Fayard (D) 48%

Republican Primary polling (as of Thanksgiving, 2011)

Iowa

Michelle Bachmann 22%
Mitch Daniels 16%
Jeb Bush 13%
Bill Frist 11%
Haley Barbour 8%
George Allen 8%
Condolezza Rice 7%
Ron Paul 4%

New Hampshire

Ron Paul 17%
Mitch Daniels 17%
Jeb Bush 17%
Condolezza Rice 15%
George Allen 7%
Bill Frist 6%
Haley Barbour 6%
Michelle Bachmann 5%

Nevada

Ron Paul 13%
Jeb Bush 13%
Condolezza Rice 13%
Mitch Daniels 12%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
George Allen 6%
Bill Frist 5%
Haley Barbour 5%

South Carolina

Michelle Bachmann 22%
Jeb Bush 19%
Condolezza Rice 18%
Mitch Daniels 10%
George Allen 7%
Bill Frist 7%
Haley Barbour 5%
Ron Paul 2%

Florida

Jeb Bush 55%
Mitch Daniels 11%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
Condolezza Rice 6%
George Allen 6%
Haley Barbour 5%
Bill Frist 3%
Ron Paul 1%

Head to Heads vs Obama

Condolezza Rice 49%
Barack Obama 48%

Mitch Daniels 48%
Barack Obama 48%

Barack Obama 50%
Jeb Bush 45%

Barack Obama 49%
George Allen 43%

Barack Obama 50%
Haley Barbour 42%

Barack Obama 48%
Bill Frist 44%

Barack Obama 55%
Ron Paul 37%

Barack Obama 52%
Michelle Bachmann 39%

[NewYorkExpress]

The final push towards the Iowa Caucuses was marked by the cancellation of the final debate before the caucuses, which would have been held at University of Iowa on December 17, after the RNC failed to find a moderator or network partner to air the debate.

The campaign was also marked in the home stretch by a rally a Michelle Bachmann rally in Ames, which accused Condolezza Rice of being a lesbian, and Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels of being "traitors to the Republican Party". At another rally the next day, in Waterloo, Bachmann, called for Democratic leaders in Congress, as well as President Obama and Vice President Biden, to be tried for treason, stating without evidence that they "coddled terrorists", conveniently ignoring that Obama had authorized an operation to bring Osama Bin Laden to justice in 2009.

While Fox News largely defended Bachmann, most of the Republican field (with exception of Ron Paul, who stayed out of the discussion), and pretty much every Democratic elected official called for Bachmann to drop out of the race. Hillary Clinton stated that Bachmann should be arrested and charged with inciting violence, however Attorney General Jerry Brown stated that absent a violent act by Bachmann or Bachmann supporters, there were no criminal charges that could be filed.

January 3,2012, Iowa Caucuses-28 Delegates

Michelle Bachmann 22% (wins all 28 delegates)
Mitch Daniels 19%
Jeb Bush 19%
Condolezza Rice 14%
George Allen 11%
Haley Barbour 7%
Bill Frist 7%
Ron Paul 1%

Following the caucuses, Bill Frist and Haley Barbour both suspended their campaigns. Barbour endorsed Mitch Daniels, while Frist endorsed Jeb Bush.

[NewYorkExpress]

While the Presidential race in the United States was heating up there were also two international elections that dominated the headlines.

The first was in Spain, where ever since the recession began, the economy had been cratering, forcing the call for a snap election, and the announcement by Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero that he would retire. Making matters worse for Zapatero and his PSOE party, was the diplomatic row with the United States, over comments back in January by Michelle Obama that were supportive of Catalan Independence, which had caused Spain to begin the process of leaving NATO, a position, which had only lukewarm popularity amongst the Spanish electorate. On the plus side for the PSOE, the Basque separatist group ETA announced a permanent cessation of armed activity just weeks before the election, but by that point POSE's chances of putting together a government had already fallen apart.

Spain-Congress of Deputies

PPMariano Rajoy- 200 seats
PSOEAlfredo Perez Rubalcaba 105 seats
CiU Josep Antoni Duran i Lledia 14 seats
IU-LV Cayo Lara 14 seats
UPyD Rosa Diez 9 seats
AmaiurIñaki Antigüedad 8 seats

The other was the Parliamentary elections in Russia.

With speculation swirling over whether Vladimir Putin would again run for President in 2012 (which Putin and President Dimitry Medvedev denied, Putin even telling the BBC's Huw Edwards, that his plan was for Medvedev to run again in 2012, and then to run for President again himself in 2018, when Medvedev was term-limited. Medvedev, for his part, said he was undecided about running for President again, but said that he did not wish to become Prime Minister if he didn't run for reelection, instead stating that he wished to return to Gazprom if he chose not to run, in an interview with Der Speigal)

Due to the uncertainty surrounding Putin's future, his United Russia party lost a significant number of seats in the Duma.

Russia, Duma Elections

United Russia Vladimir Putin- 227 seats
A Just RussiaSergey Mironov- 76 seats
Communist PartyGennady Zyuganov 69 seats
LDPRVladimir Zhrinovski 65 seats
Patriots of RussiaGennady Semgin 13 seats