The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[NewYorkExpress]

Another instance of Jeff Flake calling for someone to run against Trump, despite voting for Kavanaugh and doing nothing to really oppose Trump.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flake-calls-trump-supporters-lock-her-up-chants-disturbing-and-fears-for-future-of-republican-party

Umm Jeff, maybe you should run yourself 

[NewYorkExpress]

Avenatti now says he’ll decide on whether to run for president by Jan. 1st:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-avenatti-2020-president-trump_us_5bbf5c70e4b0bd9ed557a243

Steyer spending $4 million on digital ads aimed at getting young people to turn out in November.  His target states include Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tom-steyer-4-million-young-voters_us_5bbeb7e0e4b0b27cf47a7114

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Michelle Obama asked if she’ll run for president, and says “absolutely not”:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/michelle-obama-metoo-2020-her-181657848.html

I think Michelle should just run for Mayor of Chicago this winter. I think she'd be good at the job, and she'd have a National Platform if she did want to run for the White House.

[NewYorkExpress]

When do yall think Warren will announce?

She's moving fast, so I imagine she'll be one of the first major announcements after the midterms. She's released her tax returns, dispatched staffers to early states, is involved in elections in early states, said that Trump has made her take a hard look at running, is running digital ads outside of Massachusetts, and has now released a DNA test. She's definitely running.

The only way Warren doesn't run, is if Sanders announces between now and the midterms and jumps out to a lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Keep in mind if both Warren and Sanders are running, neither is a lock in New Hampshire against each other, though it's a near certainty one of them wins, barring an entry from Jeanne Shaheen/Maggie Hassan.

[NewYorkExpress]

Julian Castro says he's likely running.

Okay, so Cornyn’s senate seat should be Likely R or even Safe R in 2020.

Not necessairly. If Joaquin Castro runs, Cornyn is in just as much danger, and if Beto loses and tries again in 2020, he'd probably have a good shot at beating Cornyn as well.

[NewYorkExpress]

Biden talks 2020 in Michigan:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/biden-age-legitimate-issue/index.html

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He also said this about his age:

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If Biden's really being honest (and he may not be, since presidential candidates downplay their presidential ambitions all the time), then he really doesn't sound that likely to run.  He's given himself a January deadline, but still talks about grief over Beau holding him back in some way?  And that's going to change in three months?

I do think Sanders is more likely to run, but I suspect Biden will be one of the last candidates to enter the race, as he doesn't really need to make a decision right away, with near universal name recognition, and you could argue that if there are early debates, that not attending those, at least until August/September, could be a benefit rather than a curse for him.

[NewYorkExpress]

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton, while saying that she doesn’t want to run again, does say that she wants to be president:

https://www.recode.net/2018/10/27/18032550/hillary-clinton-kara-swisher-92y-recode-decode-live-podcast-transcript

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Hmm

Hillary's going to get picked Vice President, and then she's going to push the President in front a Washington Metro train.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sasse says it’s unlikely he’ll run for president in 2020:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ben-sasse-donald-trump-challenge-2020

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The way Sasse is talking, he might retire outright, and leave an open seat.

Too bad the Democrats don't have anyone in Nebraska who could make the race interesting...

[NewYorkExpress]

Sasse says it’s unlikely he’ll run for president in 2020:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ben-sasse-donald-trump-challenge-2020

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The way Sasse is talking, he might retire outright, and leave an open seat.

Too bad the Democrats don't have anyone in Nebraska who could make the race interesting...

So why he run for Senate in 2014? To leave in 2020?

He truly would want to run for president, just like Cruz, Rubio, Haley or ex. DeSantis (rom the younger generation of GOP-ers) but he sees that has nearly no chances.

Like Flake, Corker et cetera., he's frustrated with what the Republican Party is becoming and is unhappy at remaining a Senator.

If he were up in 2022 instead, I think he''d probably run for Governor.

[NewYorkExpress]

Most of the prospective 2020 Democratic candidates are doing campaign events in their home states today, though there are some exceptions (Biden’s in PA, which is where he was born, but not where he was Senator; O’Malley’s in NV; Patrick’s in FL; Sanders is splitting his time today between VT and NH).  Where they are today:

Biden: PA
Booker: NJ
Castro: TX
Gillibrand: NY
Harris: CA
Klobuchar: MN
McAuliffe: VA
O’Malley: NV
Patrick: FL
Ryan: OH
Sanders: VT/NH
Warren: MA

Meanwhile, Tom Steyer is not on the campaign trail today.  But he did do this interview with Al Sharpton, where Sharpton asked him if he was going to run for president next year.  Steyer responds with a meandering non-answer, that begins with “I’m going to wait and see what happens on Tuesday”, and then implies he’ll figure things out from there:

https://twitter.com/TheRevAl/status/1059219934759321602

Steyer is going to run unless Democrats actually succeed in removing Trump from office...and even then I think he'll just run against Pence.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kasich attacks both parties, admits he would be destroyed in a primary against Trump, and considers a third party run in 2020: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-kasich-hints-at-challenging-trump-as-third-party-candidate-in-2020-during-the-view-appearance

I'm willing to bet that he runs with Hickenlooper on the Serve America Movement line.

Hickenlooper isn't that stupid.

If he's picking a "Democrat", he's picking someone more moderate, like Bloomberg, Warner or Bullock.

[NewYorkExpress]

O'Rourke yesterday: "I will not be a candidate for president in 2020":

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/o-rourke-i-will-not-run-president-2020-n931341

Either that's a Shermanesque statement, or an early concession to Cruz, or both.

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, Sherrod Brown ended his victory speech with this:

"That is the message coming out of Ohio in 2018, and that is the blueprint for America for 2020."

That sounds like he's considering a run.

Well, he's one of the very few to consider if you want to win Ohio in 2020. Kamala Harris sure isn't.

Anyone who isn't a White Male, or Avenatti, is probably not who you want to run in Ohio if you want to win the state as a Democrat.

In a neutral year, though Brown would have lost.

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris has been “building a network for black candidates”:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/kamala-harris-is-building-a-network-for-black-candidates.html

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Bernie was the only Senator to endorse Gillum in the primary. I guess he just wasn't the right type of black for Harris. Harris endorsed white Buffy Wicks over black Hispanic lesbian immigrant Jovanka Beckles. You only hear about identity politics when it benefits the establishment candidate.

It's not like she endorsed Graham and tried to take Gillum down. But go off

She did endorse Buffy Wicks over Jovanka Beckles and Nancy O'Malley over Pamela Price. And she certainly didn't endorse an actually progressive black woman named K. Harris who ran for Senate in Delaware.

WHY DIDN'T SHE ENDORSE JOHN JAMES? SAD!

I'm sure she would've endorsed James had actually gotten a serious primary challenge (sarcasm).

[NewYorkExpress]

Swalwell will run.

Unless the "source" is Salwell himself, I won't believe it.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sherrod Brown’s wife

https://twitter.com/connieschultz/status/1062009289429209088?s=21

Ordinarily I would be ecstatic, but as I can't emphasize enough, Governor-elect DeWine makes this a bad idea.

Why would this "ordinarily" not be a problem? There would be a special election (that Republicans would be favored in) either way.

I meant "ordinarily" in the sense that the news itself would, or should make me excited, but not anymore. He needs to glue himself to that seat until the Demcoratic numbers in the Senate aren't hanging by a thread, at the very least.

A majority in the Senate is likely out of reach anyway. And I think the presidency is a lot more valuable than a Senate seat, especially one that probably won't mean the difference between victory and defeat in the Senate. So looking at it and just saying "but muh DeWine" only really makes sense if all of the following are true:

1. He'd win. (because if he'd lose it's pretty irrelevant)

2. There is another Democrat who is in a blue state who would have as much or more is a chance to win the general if nominated. (because if this is true then you might as well run them instead) OR the Senate majority is more valuable than the Presidency (because if this is true then your priority should obviously be the Senate)

3. The Senate majority is in play in 2020, where Democrats will have to win 4 of AZ, ME, NC, IA, and CO while losing nothing but AL. (because if it's not in play there's no such thing as "wasting" a seat)

If you don't think all of these are true, then the DeWine factor is pretty irrelevant

Honestly, it doesn't really matter. Ohio will be far enough to the right, that Brown probably will lose in 2024 if he runs for reelection anyways.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/11/25/john-kasich-2020/2108618002/

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This might be me speculating, but could Kasich have already made up his mind to run, and he's just being coy here?

[NewYorkExpress]

Cuomo: "I am ruling it out":

https://theweek.com/speedreads/809597/andrew-cuomo-swears-hes-not-running-president-2020

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I actually believe this. Cuomo doesn't want to be his father, the Hamlet on the Hudson who dithered about runs in 1984, 1988 and 1992. He'll make his intentions clear now and in 2024 (if applicable). Mind you, if Gillibrand is elected President, I wouldn't be stunned if Cuomo runs in the special for her seat...

[NewYorkExpress]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

LOL @ people still talking about Sanders. Give up already!

At what point has Sanders said he isn't running? In fact, it looks like the opposite is true.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bernie and Warren met and both are probably running.

Warren should bow out of the race and endorse Sanders, so the Progressive wing of the party is united behind one candidate. The Pocahontas smear combined with her embarrassing DNA test shows she would be torn apart by Trump, plus Sanders has a much more enthusiastic base and a much more authentic message (before Sanders ran, Single-Payer healthcare, Free College, and a Living Wage were viewed as fringe positions by most Democrats) as shown by the fact that every other potential candidate is imitating his platform, even those that clearly don’t support it (ie. Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and Beto). This proves Sanders is the candidate that Progressives should unite behind to win the nomination and throw Trump out of the White House.

Even if Warren endorsed him, Sanders still wouldn't win the nomination. I would expect Clinton level shenanigans from the other candidates (like refusing to attend debates he is invited to) if he runs.

The Clinton level shenanigans is exactly the reason why she lost.

She lost because she had flaws that were unique to her as a candidate (Whitewater, helping cover up Bill's sexual indiscretions, email scandal) not because of any particular strength of a proposed Sanders candidacy.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/15/politics/gillibrand-2020-van-jones-cnntv/index.html

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[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1074693862856237058

Well then, I guess he's running for president, because there's no other compelling reason not to run for another term.  Also:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/south-bend-mayor-pete-buttigieg-moves-toward-presidential-run/2018/12/17/e51930a2-fe5e-11e8-ad40-cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html

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A presidential announcement also might not come right away in 2019, because he has a book coming out in February, and may want to do the book tour before officially becoming a candidate.

Indiana does have a Gubernatorial Election in 2020, so he might end up running for that office instead.

[NewYorkExpress]

Indiana does have a Gubernatorial Election in 2020, so he might end up running for that office instead.

But he hasn't given any indication that he's interested in that, yet has given indication that he might be interested in a presidential run.  I figure it was either the presidency or another run for mayor.  So if he's not running for mayor, then I guess it's the presidency by default.

That's correct, but we have seen politicians Express interest in one office and then run for another office instead.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1074693862856237058

Well then, I guess he's running for president, because there's no other compelling reason not to run for another term.  Also:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/south-bend-mayor-pete-buttigieg-moves-toward-presidential-run/2018/12/17/e51930a2-fe5e-11e8-ad40-cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html

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A presidential announcement also might not come right away in 2019, because he has a book coming out in February, and may want to do the book tour before officially becoming a candidate.

Indiana does have a Gubernatorial Election in 2020, so he might end up running for that office instead.

Do you think it's possible that Indiana splits the ticket and votes for Trump for president and Buttigieg for governor?

If Buttgeig is the Gubernatorial nominee in 2020, it wouldn't shock me at all, but it would require a relatively weak Republican (or just someone who can easily be linked back to Mike Pence...apparently he really isn't all that popular in his home state).

[NewYorkExpress]

There will be at least 3 vets running if Buttigieg runs which is pretty impressive for the party. Unfortunately all of the likely candidates are lower tier, wish we had more viable vet candidates considering many were part of the success in 2018.

Duckworth would be a strong candidate but has shown no signs that she's running.

Duckworth not running is the biggest disappoint for me, she has so much political talent. Literally the best attributes Dems could hope for in a candidate.

Duckworth might well be someone's VP nominee (she'd make a good one for almost anyone).