Who wins Iowa? Who wins NH? Who drops out by then?

[NewYorkExpress]

Iowa: Amy Klobuchar (she's got the neighboring state bonus, which should help her here)

New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders if he runs, otherwise Elizabeth Warren (both have a neighboring state bonus, and both will likely be in top three in Iowa)

Nevada: Kamala Harris (Neighboring State and all)

South Carolina: Cory Booker (I can see Harris winning here, but I think Booker has stronger ties to the Black community. As such he'll be tougher to beat in South Carolina, as well as other Southern States).

[NewYorkExpress]

Iowa: Amy Klobuchar (she's got the neighboring state bonus, which should help her here)

New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders if he runs, otherwise Elizabeth Warren (both have a neighboring state bonus, and both will likely be in top three in Iowa)

Nevada: Kamala Harris (Neighboring State and all)

South Carolina: Cory Booker (I can see Harris winning here, but I think Booker has stronger ties to the Black community. As such he'll be tougher to beat in South Carolina, as well as other Southern States).

Is the neighboring state effect an actual thing?

Sanders wouldn't have won New Hampshire by as much as he did without being from Vermont.

[NewYorkExpress]

IA - Sanders or Biden (Do people really expect Klobuchar to be relevant enough to win Iowa?)

NH- Warren or Sanders (should be obvious unless both run and I'm not sure why people still think neither would run)

NV - Harris (depends on Reid machine though)

SC - Booker or Harris (could see loser dropping out

Klobuchar is the kind of candidate that probably wins Iowa and Iowa only.

Also, I can't see Reid actually backing Harris. She might get endorsements from a Democratic Governor should one be elected in 2018, Cortez Masto or Rosen (should she win her Senate race), but I think Reid realizes his time has more or less passed. He'll leave everyone to their own devices this time.

In South Carolina, Booker has the advantage, unless Harris wins Nevada and one of Iowa and New Hampshire.