Who does Phil Bryant appoint to replace Cochran?

[NewYorkExpress]

I still think Steven Palazzo, Phillip Gunn are possible.

If Bryant really wants to be canny, he can appoint Hood, because even in a Dem midterm it's unlikely a Democratic incumbent will win in Mississippi, and Hood being the incumbent other Republican will encourage other Republicans to join McDaniel in the race (and maybe beat him).

Even if Hood does win in the special, he'll lose in 2020 anyways, as he probably won't outrun Republican turnout atop the ballot.

[NewYorkExpress]

I still think Steven Palazzo, Phillip Gunn are possible.

If Bryant really wants to be canny, he can appoint Hood, because even in a Dem midterm it's unlikely a Democratic incumbent will win in Mississippi, and Hood being the incumbent other Republican will encourage other Republicans to join McDaniel in the race (and maybe beat him).

Even if Hood does win in the special, he'll lose in 2020 anyways, as he probably won't outrun Republican turnout atop the ballot.

As a democrat, I wouldn't object to this, but this would be god-awful for Republicans in every way. It would make the senate 50-50, it would move the seat from a Tossup to Lean D, and it would eliminate any chance republicans had of an R v. R race.

It would also eliminate any chance of McDaniel actually being elected Senator and becoming a National embarrassment ala Roy Moore, which might be more important.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/665443?unlock=E1522ZS6XHETSKT1

Given this is Mississippi we're talking about, I think we get either a Hyde-Smith/Espy, Hyde-Smith/Baria or McDaniel/Hyde-Smith runoff.

In the first two, Hyde-Smith wins a close race. In the third one, McDaniel rides a Trump endorsement, and conservative anger to an upset victory.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats would vote for Hyde-Smith in a race against McDaniel.

There are more Democrats who vote Republican in Mississippi, than there are straight ticket Democrats.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats would vote for Hyde-Smith in a race against McDaniel.

There are more Democrats who vote Republican in Mississippi, than there are straight ticket Democrats.

Hyde-Smith is a Republican. I can't see Democrats voting for McDaniel. African-American voters would also likely vote for Hyde-Smith.

Straight ticket Democrats would stay home, everyone else probably votes for McDaniel.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats would vote for Hyde-Smith in a race against McDaniel.

There are more Democrats who vote Republican in Mississippi, than there are straight ticket Democrats.

Hyde-Smith is a Republican. I can't see Democrats voting for McDaniel. African-American voters would also likely vote for Hyde-Smith.

Straight ticket Democrats would stay home, everyone else probably votes for McDaniel.

That didn't happen in 2014. Democrats voted for Cochran in the GOP primary.

Cochran ran a more competent campaign than I think Hyde-Smith will.

[NewYorkExpress]

If it's somehow Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel in the runoff, which is extremely unlikely unless the votes split just so, she wins the runoff by 20 or more points.

McDaniel's only hope is to knock the appointee down to 3rd somehow and face off against a Democrat in a completely nationalized race. And even then he probably still loses to a good Democratic candidate like Presley.

I think McDaniel beats any Democrat not named Jim Hood...and even then it would be close.