2018 Senate Rankings

[NewYorkExpress]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

Arizona moves to Safe D (at least until another Republican, like Jeff Dewit or Martha McSally jumps in), with Flake announcing he will not run for re-election.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

Arizona moves to Safe D (at least until another Republican, like Jeff Dewit or Martha McSally jumps in), with Flake announcing he will not run for re-election.

A Safe D category is supposed to something that it's almost impossible for a race to get out of......Jeff DeWit jumping in is not "almost impossible".

I'm only using the current candidates as a basis for my ratings... If DeWit jumps in it probably only drops back down to likely D, and easily could return to Safe D, if Ward keeps her momentum.

[NewYorkExpress]

A couple of updates since last time:

Arizona: Safe D: I still think unless Gosar, Salmon or Franks runs, Ward will win the primary...and even then she's a coin toss to win. As for Simena, unless she does something stupid and loses the primary, she should win that, and the General Election, though the margin may vary depending on opponent.

California: Safe D, Tilt De Leon: I think De Leon rides the progressive wave to a lead after the primary, and with Democrats claiming both spots in both the Governor's race and this race (I don't see Feinstein getting shut out without another Democrat, like Steyer entering), I think Republicans stay home after the top-two primary.

Wisconisn: Likely D: Tammy Baldwin looks like she's going to dodge a huge bullet. Still if Scott Walker changes course and jumps in, this could get ugly.

Florida: Tilt R: Yes, I'm assuming Rick Scott jumps in, but the Governor is doing well and has the resources to flip the seat. Nelson could lose even if Democrats hold North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri.

[NewYorkExpress]

In light of today's revelations, Alabama moves to tossup.

Alabama is at least Likely R. Republicans will vote for a pedophile like Roy Moore over Jesus, if Jesus was running on the Democratic line.

[NewYorkExpress]

Moving Arizona back to Likely D, as while I don't think McSally would win a primary, I can't rule it out.

Also, Alabama being anything less than Likely R is ridiculous. Unless undecided voters unanimously (or almost so) break for Jones, Moore is still going to win.

[NewYorkExpress]

Minnesota Special starts out at Lean D in my book, while Minnesota-Regular move to Safe D. It's  far more likely Tim Pawlenty or Erik Paulsen run here than against Klobuchar (though Pawlenty seems more interested in running for Governor).

[NewYorkExpress]

ND: Likely D -> Lean D (Heitkamp is still favored, but even I believe this will be a race to watch if Cramer turns out to be a better candidate than I expect him to be. Heitkamp has the right personality for the state and is an extremely skilled candidate/retail politician, but she also has a voting record to defend.)

PA: Lean D -> Likely D (I was probably being too generous to Barletta. Given the environment and his weak fundraising, this change was probably long overdue.)

UT: Likely R -> Safe R (Romney isn’t going to lose, even in a Democratic wave.)

Safe D (not a chance this seat flips, regardless of what may happen): CA, WA, NM, MN (regular), VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI, ME

Likely D (these states are currently not competitive and extremely unlikely to flip (except NV, which is a D pickup), but there is at least a path for a Republican to win statewide): NV, WI, MI, PA, MN (special)

Lean D (one party has a slight advantage): AZ, MT, OH, FL, ND

Tossup (these states could go either way): IN, MO, WV

Lean R (one party has a slight advantage): MS, TN

Likely R (these states are currently not competitive and extremely unlikely to flip, but there is at least a path for a Democrat/Independent to win statewide): NE, TX

Safe R (not a chance this seat flips, regardless of what may happen): WY, UT

Umm...Angus King technically is an Independent, unless you think a Democrat is going to beat him?

[NewYorkExpress]

apologies for the double-post, but does anyone know how to make the math so that races correlate? They typically do in US Senate contests.

Also, I should make a complete list of race changes that will occur if expected events take place: (this doesn't consider changes in polling except in Florida's case, because, no sh**t)

Florida: A lot of atlas wisdom is that Nelson is favored over Scott more than the polls currently suggest. I will accept this wisdom and shift Florida to Leans D if future polling bears this out. If Nelson leads 3 polls in a row by 4 points or more, up it goes. (I could the April 11th Nelson+6 poll as the first, so we'd need 2 more)

Arizona: That race becomes Likely D if Ward wins, Very Likely D if Arpaio wins, and Tilts D if McSally wins. Not changing the rating until Primary Day.

Indiana: Race changes to Likely D if Rokita wins, stays at Lean if Messer, and goes to Tossup or Tilts D if it's Braun.

Missouri: If by some miracle Hawley loses the nomination, MO goes to Leans D at the very least.

Michigan: This feels like a Very Likely D race. But we haven't had a poll since January. Give me a poll that confirms this gut feeling and I'll change it, like I did PA.

West Virginia: Blankenship makes it Likely D, Morressey keeps it at Leans D, and Jenkins makes it Tossup.

Maryland: A Manning win would change the race to Tossup. Otherwise, it reverts to Safe D after Primary Day.

Mississippi-Special: This race becomes Leans Democratic if Espy faces McDaniel and stays Likely Republican if Espy faces Hyde-Smith.

California: As you know, Safe races are technically not Safe, as I allow an incredibly small chance for the other party to win. If CA becomes DvD, I will create a new Titanium D rating for it and it alone, and set that rating to a 100% chance of a D win.

Arizona: Should a special election in the state be called to replace Sen. John McCain, it will start out in my rankings as Leans Democratic.

I'm sorry, but Chelsea Manning is NOT winning the Democratic Primary in Maryland.

[NewYorkExpress]

I haven't posted a full list of what I think in months...

Minnesota-Special: Safe D (I think Republicans are probably wishing Tim Pawlenty or Erik Paulsen to run here)

Mississippi- Special: Safe R (There is no scenario I can see where a Democrat, such as Mike Espy winning. Hyde Smith should be able to beat both Espy and Chris McDaniel, should she go up against him)

Arizona: Lean D (If McSally wins the nomination, this race moves to tossup...but I think either Ward or Arpaio wins the primary, thus handing the seat to the Democrats)

California: Safe D, Likely Feinstein (Now that De Leon has the California Democratic Party endorsement, his victory wouldn't stun me, but Feinstein is the clear favorite)

Connecticut: Safe D (Murphy isn't vulnerable)

Delaware: Safe D (Carper isn't vulnerable)

Florida: Tilt R (Rick Scott, given his wealth and his willingness to spend it is the strongest opponent that Bill Nelson has ever faced. It's very possible that this is the only seat Democrats lose on Election Night...especially given how incompetent the Florida Democratic Party is)

Hawaii: Safe D (Hirono is going to glide to re-election...though I still think she should have retired, given her recent Kidney Cancer)

Indiana: Tossup (Braun wasn't the strongest candidate running in the primary, and I would say that was Messer from a primary/General Election standpoint...however, Indiana is a very Republican state, and Braun should not be underestimated by any stretch. This race could go either way)

Maine: Lean I (I actually think Ranked Choice voting might hurt Angus King's chances slightly, and help Eric Brakey and Zak Ringlestein slightly. That said, I'd be surprised if King lost, but it's certainly possible. Given the political climate, he'd more likely lose to Ringlestein)

Maryland: Safe D (Cardin isn't in danger)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Warren isn't in danger, but she'll have to answer questions about whether or not she is running for President)

Michigan: Safe D (I know Trump carried Michigan, but Republicans had a major recruiting fail here. Calley or Schuette might have actually made this race competitive)

Minnesota: Safe D (Again, Republicans might have happier if Pawlenty or Paulsen were running here)

Mississippi: Safe R (David Baria isn't a bad candidate, but Democrats are very unlikely to win in Mississippi, especially against an incumbent)

Missouri: Tilt D (I think Hawley isn't the strongest candidate, but I'm not quite sure who, other than maybe Jay Ashcroft would work for Republicans)

Montana: Tilt D (Matthew Rosendale is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, but Tester is still a narrow favorite)

Nebraska: Safe R (Deb Fischer isn't losing)

Nevada: Likely D (Dean Heller almost certainly is losing, barring a disaster. I expect to be able to have this race back at safe/titanium D by mid September)

New Jersey: Lean D (I think if Hillary had won, Mendendez would lose)

New Mexico: Safe D (Heinrich isn't losing)

New York: Safe D (Gillibrand isn't going anywhere)

North Dakota: Tossup (Heitkamp certainly could lose, and probably will if she doesn't vote for Kavanaugh, but it's not like Cramer is the perfect candidate-he's already in the Senate in the person of John Hoeven)

Ohio: Likely D (It's quickly becoming, whether Brown will bring Cordray over the line in the Governor's race)

Pennsylvania: Likely D (Casey is probably safe, but he needs huge margins in both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that Hillary might not get)

Rhode Island: Safe D (I don't see how Whitehouse gets in any serious danger)

Tennessee: Tilt D (Bredesen is a narrow favorite right now, but don't rule out Blackburn yet)

Texas: Tilt D (I'm probably very high on Beto O'Rourke's chances, but Ted Cruz is really only liked by his core base. It's quite possible we see a lot of Abbott/O'Rourke crossover voters, allowing O'Rourke to win. No matter what, I would think O'Rourke likely loses in 2024)

Utah: Safe R (Mitt Romney is a legend in Utah. He'll break at least 80%)

Vermont: Safe I/D (Sanders is safe,  though he does face two primary challengers, at least one whom wanted to punish him for running against Clinton...)

Virginia: Safe D (With Corey Stewart as the nominee, Tim Kaine is going to win by at least twenty)

Washington: Safe D (I don't believe Cantwell will be in danger)

West Virginia: Tossup (If Manchin votes against Kavanaugh, which I don't believe he will, he loses. If he votes for Kavanaugh, the race is a tossup, but Manchin has a narrow edge)

Wisconsin: Safe D (Neither of Tammy Baldwin's opponents have the strength to take him down)

Wyoming: Safe R (There is no way Democrats have a chance in one of the most Republican states in the nation)

[NewYorkExpress]

My current map:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2kRWoa

[NewYorkExpress]

My current map:

Florida as lean R while Tennessee is lean D? also why is Texas and Nebraska the same rating as likely R?

I just didn't change Texas, it really should be tossup...and I have no excuse for Nebraska at all.

[NewYorkExpress]

Some changes now that the Kavanaugh drama is over:

North Dakota moves from Toss-Up to Lean R. This is more because of the polling then because Heitkamp voted No, but in the event she voted Aye, I would leave it at Toss-Up just to see if that caused her to surge. Now that she has voted No, the change is made.

West Virginia moves from Lean D to Likely D. In the event that Manchin had voted No, Morrisey might have surged - the nomination is very popular in WV, and likely popular among the sorts of voters Manchin needs. At the very least, it would have given the Morrisey campaign fresh ad material. With Manchin voting Aye, he has fresh claims of bipartisanship and has effectively neutralized a major political issue. This race might not even be close at this point.

Also, I had been hesitant to list Sherrod Brown as too big of a favorite because Ohio swung so violently to the right in 2016, but at this point in the cycle, I am comfortable with shifting the race from Lean D to Likely D.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (4): NJ, NM, OH, WV
Lean D (1):  NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (6): TN, FL, MO, MT, AZ, IN
Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

Overall, Republicans retain a clear edge in the battle for the Senate. The senate stands at 49-45 R with 6 Toss-Ups, meaning that Republicans need to win just one of the Toss-Ups while the Dems would need to sweep all six. If there is movement out of the Lean/Likely categories (away from Safe), it will probably favor Republicans - Heller continues to poll far better than he should, Menendez continues to have underwhelming numbers, and it's difficult to completely trust OH and WV to vote D. On the other hand, Heitkamp appears to be in a slump, and voting against Kavanaugh isn't going to help her recover, MS-Special will go to a lower-turnout December runoff, which will favor Republicans regardless of whether it determines senate control, and TX is really only plausible on the most amazing of election nights.

New Mexico also remains out of the Safe Category. While Rich has refused to drop out, four of the last five polls show Johnson in second place, and three of the five show Johnson within 10 points of Heinrich. No one can truly say whether Johnson will surge to a narrow victory, whether he is the next Tom Tancredo (is the clear dominant opposition, but the small "detractor vote" ultimately dooms him), or whether he is the next Larry Pressler (Inspiring poll numbers, but gets only 15-20% on election day, placing 3rd.). This race will be interesting to watch, and in the event Johnson wins, watch for major campaigning from both sides to add Mr. Johnson to their caucus.

If Johnson wins, he'll form a Libertarian caucus...which Rand Paul will promptly join, as will Justin Amash when he wins the 2020 Senate race in Michigan.