Preliminary 2016 Senate Race Rankings - No Tossups

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm going to include the Gubernatorial Elections here as well, since it's an off year for those.

UtahSafe R

Even if Jim Matheson runs or incumbent Gary Herbert is beaten in the GOP primary (Outgoing State House Speaker Rebecca Lockhart, or former Governor/Ambassador Jon Huntsman come to mind) the Democrats can't win statewide here.

New Hampshire Likely D

If Maggie Hassan runs for re-election, she's a lock, and if she goes for a tempting Senate Race, Democrats start favored.

VermontSafe D
Unless an act of God happens to Peter Shumlin, he will win re-election.

IndianaLean R
While Mike Pence may run for President, this seat is safe for him if he doesn't, and if he does, Democrats (Hammond Mayor, Thomas McDermott Jr, Gary Mayor Karen-Wilson Freeman and Congressman Andre Carson come to mind) start in a weaker position than the GOP (Congresswoman Jackie Walorski, House Speaker Brian Bosma, or Lieutenant Governor Sue Ellsperman would all become possible candidates)

North DakotaSafe R
The only way this race becomes competitive is if Heidi Heitkamp runs for the Democrats. Even then it likely won't be enough

North Carolina Tilt D
While Pat McCrory certainly can (and should) win with President Obama not on the ballot, he faces several strong opponents (Roy Cooper, Anthony Foxx and Charles Meeker)

Washington Likely D
If Jay Inslee retires (He'll be 65 in 2016) that leaves the door ajar for Republicans, who do have a decent bench here (Jamie Herrera Buetler, Cathy McMorris Rodgers and State Senator Steve Litzow).

Montana Tilt R
Montana in a Presidential year is more likely to go Republican no matter who is atop the ballot. Still, this is the closest to a tossup the Governors races will get.

West Virginia (Earl Ray Tomblin Term-Limited) Safe R
West Virginia has turned Republican quite rapidly, and Democrats have to pray that Joe Manchin doesn't run for old job.

Missouri (Nixon Term-Limited) Lean R
If Claire McCaskill runs, the Democrats probably win, but anyone else gives the GOP a big head start.

Delaware (Markell Term-Limited) Safe D
I think it's safe to say Beau Biden deciding he would run sealed it.

Senate Races

Alabama Safe R
I'll be surprised if Shelby even draws an opponent

Alaska Lean R
The Democrats best chance is if Murkowski runs (or Sarah Palin somehow winds up as the nominee), and it's a three-way race like in 2010, but their best hope of having another Senate seat here will likely be to convince Murkowski to switch parties.

Arizona Tilt D
If John McCain runs, Democrats win, If he doesn't (which is more likely) it's basically a tossup (assuming Democrats are able to recruit Richard Carmona or Kyrsten Simena)

Arkansas Safe R
Even if Mike Bebee runs (which he won't), this will be a rout.

California Safe D
Boxer's retirement will set off a free-for-all on the Democratic side of the race, so don't expect a Republican in the top-two this time.

Colorado Lean D
Michael Bennett easily could, be vulnerable, but the GOP bench in Colorado is non-existent.

Connecticut Lean D
See Colorado

Florida Tilt D
If Marco Rubio runs for President, this seat is as good as gone, while if he runs for re-election, he will face a tough opponent in the General Election (and possibly Allen West in the primary)

Georgia Lean R
Democrats will put up fight against Johnny Isakson, but a Presidential year, with a perennial Republican boogeyman atop the ballot in Hillary Clinton should save Isakson here.

Hawaii Safe D
Unless Colleen Hanabusa runs again, there will be nothing interesting about this race

Idaho Safe R
It doesn't matter if the Republicans put up incumbent Mike Crapo, Sasquatch or Charles Manson, they will win this race.

Illinois Likely D
This seat is probably gone with Senator Kirk running, and if he retires it's definitely gone.

Iowa Safe R
Assuming Senator Grassley does in fact, run for re-election, he will win.

Kansas Safe R
Despite what this year is showing, Kansas is still a very Republican state.

Kentucky Likely R
While Rand Paul may run for President, it won't matter much here (other the Republican Candidate's margin of victory)

Louisiana Safe R

Maryland Safe D

Missouri Likely R
Governor Nixon deciding not run made things much easier for Republicans (though with the chaos in Ferguson, he would have started in a hole in any hypothetical primary anyways)

Nevada Likely D
Senator Reid may not have to meddle at all in the GOP race this time, as the front-runner Brian Sandoval's semi-pro choice view-points (he was rated 50% by NARAL in 2013) would be a non-starter in a primary

New Hampshire Tilt D
If Governor Hassan runs, she wins, if not Senator Ayotte, should win re-election, if less comfortably than 2010.

New York Safe D

North Carolina Safe R


North Dakota Safe R

Ohio Tilt R
If Rob Portman runs for re-election, he wins easily. If he runs for President, this race is a pure tossup, and if he's selected VP in the middle of the campaign...all bets are off.

Oklahoma Safe R

Oregon Safe D

Pennsylvania Tilt R
If there was a Senate race to put at tossup, this would be it.

South Carolina Safe R

South Dakota Safe R

Utah Safe R
See Utah Governor's race

Vermont Safe D

Washington Safe D

Wisconsin Likely D
Senator Johnson and Senator Kirk are the two most likely incumbents to fall for either party.