Ranking the Senate Races....

[NewYorkExpress]

In order of filp-likelihood...

1. West Virginia
2. South Dakota
3. Arkansas
4. Montana
5. Louisiana
6. Alaska
7. Kentucky
8. North Carolina
9. Georgia
10. New Hampshire
11. Michigan
12. Iowa
13. Colorado
14. Minnesota
15. Oregon
16. New Jersey
17. Virginia
18. Hawaii
19. South Carolina- A
20. Maine

everything else doesn't have a prayer of flipping either way.

[NewYorkExpress]

Time to to rank'em all (again)

(in order of flippablity)

1. South Dakota- Rounds isn't going to lose the primary and unless Independent (and former Senator) Larry Pressler draws only from Rounds, and Democratic presumptive nominee (the filing deadline is March 25) Rick Weiland drastically overperforms, only then does he have a path to victory... Sorry, but even the Republicans most likely to beat Rounds, State Senator (and Majority Whip) Larry Rhoden, and State Rep. Stace Nelson, could beat Weiland with their hands tied behind their backs.

2. West Virginia Assuming both Rep. Shelly Moore Capito and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant win their primaries, this should be a (relatively) close race... but Moore Capito is the heavy favorite. Right now the question should be asked whether Moore Capito or Evan Jenkins (Running against Nick Rahall) will win by more.

3. Arkansas- Tom Cotton should win this by a comfortable margin, the question might end up being how much. This isn't top of the list to flip, but I'd put ahead of South Dakota and West Virginia in terms of likelihood to flip and be a blowout, because South Dakota and West Virginia don't have incumbents running (at least not Senators) and in South Dakota's case Pressler's presence may ward against a blowout margin.

4. Montana- Bacaus's departure to become ambassador to China probably didn't change anything significantly. John Walsh, who was already running was appointed to the seat, and while in this climate incumbency would probably hurt him, it's worth noting that unless he wins he won't serve very long. Still Steve Daines is favored, and if I had to peg a margin of victory today I would put it somewhere similar to West Virginia.

5. Louisiana- Like Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu has found her self a member of very endangered species, the southern Democrat. The good news for Landrieu is she doesn't have opponents as strong as Pryor's single opponent, the bad news is Louisiana is even more blood-red than Arkansas. If Control of the Senate is even remotely up for grabs on election night, or in a runoff, this seat is gone.

6. Alaska-  The calculation is simple, If Treadwell or Sullivan win the primary, they are the favorites in the general. If Joe Miller (last seen chasing a perfectly serviceable Lisa Murkowski out of the Republican Party) on the other hand wins the primary, Begich will likely win in a near-walk. And did I mention there's time for more candidates (especially Republicans) to enter the race, with the filing deadline (for party candidates) being June, 2 (Hear that Sarah Palin ?)

7. Kentucky- Even though it's unlikely Matt Bevin will topple Mitch McConnell in the Republican Primary, (or the other three candidates, Brad Copas, Chris Payne or Shawna Stirling) the likely Democratic nominee, Alison Lundergan Grimes, has a much better chance. McConnell, being the Republican Minority Leader, is unpopular on all sides of spectrum (even when compared with instate colleague Rand Paul), which alone will, like 2008 when McConnell won 53-47 over Businessman Bruce Lusnford. There's a major similarity between 2014 and 2008, and that is that people are deeply (torches and ptichforks) unhappy with Congress, and may take on legislative leaders (like McConnell, Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner). Grimes is also (at this stage a stronger candidate than Lunsford who other than a May Rassumussen poll showing him 49-44 over McConnell, didn't really come particularly close in polling until a late September Survey USA poll showing McConnell with a 49-46 lead. The dates on that poll were September 21 and September 22, at the height of the Wall Street Meltdown. Grimes has been within the margin in almost every public poll, and as a bonus has even lead Bevin in most polling. Kentucky doesn't have a runoff like it's neighbor southern states, which helps Grimes, but may also help McConnell/Bevin in that they don't need to go through three or four rounds of elections for one seat in one year.


8. Michigan- Terri Lynn Land and Gary Peters have split leads of varying sizes. Ultimately this race is tied to the Governor's race where unpopular incumbent Rick Snyder is trying to hang on against Mark Schauer. If Snyder is winning, then Land is likely winning, whereas if Snyder is headed for defeat, Land likely will be to.

9. Cory Gardner's entry into the Republican Primary (And Ken Buck dropping down to a Congressional Seat he can (probably) win), makes this a totally different game. It's certainly plausible that State Sen. Randy Baumgardner or State Sen. Owen Hill could pull of an upset (Gardner's entry does seem to meet the definition of "late entry"- the filing deadline is March 31). I happen to think Governor Hickenlooper is in more danger than Sen. Udall, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility both could lose.

10. Other than Thom Tillis (Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives) every one of Sen. Kay Hagan's opponents are unknown and likely to make some sort of "right wing-gaffe" on the trail (if they haven't already). Hagan is tied with Alex Bradshaw 43-43, Pastor Mark Harris 43-43, leads Nurse Practitioner Heather Grant 43-42, retired Physician Edward Kryn 43-41 and Speaker of the State House Thom Tillis 45-43,  and  trails Shelby Mayor 45-43 and Former State Rep. Jim Snyder 43-42. The GOP primary features insane numbers of undecideds, and the GOP to avoid an "Akin moment" should probably pray that Tillis wins.

11. Georgia- It doesn't matter who the GOP nominates, Michelle Nunn has to win without a runoff if she wants to be the next Senator from Georgia. There are five different candidates that have a serious shot at the GOP nomination including 1/3 of the State's GOP Congressional Delegation. Nunn is tied with Paul Broun (probably the most fire-breathing member of either party in the delegation) 38-38, leads Phil Gingrey 42-40, (PPP polled Derrick Grayson in August and Nunn led him 42-36, he's still running, but he's got no shot at the primary, which is probably why they stopped polling him) leads Karen Handel 43-39, leads Jack Kingston 44-41 ( PPP also polled David Perdue in that August poll, Nunn was tied with him 40-40). So why isn't this more likely to flip than Kentucky? First, the incumbent Saxby Chambliss is retiring, whereas in Kentucky Mitch McConnell is running (and is in leadership, which Chambliss wasn't). The second answer is the runoff, which probably kept Jim Martin from winning in 2008 (although Chambliss finished first in the 1st round of balloting 49.8-46.8]. Many Democrats blamed the loss on the sharp drop in turnout (on both sides- 639,064 fewer voters voted for Chambliss in the runoff than the general, while 847,470 fewer voters voted for Martin).

12. New Hampshire- If Scott Brown runs (Filing day June 13) and wins the GOP primary (unlikely) and the National Political Climate remains similar (more likely) this race will competitive.  With Bob Smith as the nominee looks likely right now (I thought he still lived in Sarasota) Shaheen wins with ease, grace and elegance. BTW; I would pay to see a Scott Brown/Bob Smith Primary

13. Iowa- Does any Republican want to win this thing? (Ironically, the filing deadline is today).
Bruce Braley is far from out of the woods yet (he's only polling in the low 40's) but he's got comfortable leads over everyone (ranging from 15% over Sam Clovis to 9% over Mark Jacobs) (For the record those quoted numbers were from Quinnipiac)

14. Maine- First things first, Erick Bennett has no shot of taking down Susan Collins. Second Shanna Bellows is running a solid campaign (She was only losing by 39 as of November), She probably needs Eliot Cutler (Currently running for Governor) and at least one other independent to enter the race by the filing deadline (Tomorrow) in order to have a serious chance. (PPP had an August poll which showed Author Stephen King losing by "only" 54-31. I actually would love to see King pull an Al Franken, especially if/when Collins retires)

15. Minnesota- Republicans aren't showing any serious interest (although I suppose State Rep. Jim Abeler and State Sen. Julianne Ortman could theoretically be competitive) for a race where the incumbent was elected by 312 votes and is a former Comedian.

16. New Jersey- The filing deadline isn't until April 11, meaning there's still (some) time for a serious Republican (Jon Runyan? Kim Guagdano? Chris Christie?) to enter the race. If that happens (even scandal rocked Christie and Gaugdano) this race becomes much closer, (and may tilt GOP with Christie or Runyan) while if it doesn't happen, Booker gets a stroll in the park.

17. Oregon- In another 2010, or 1994 (Which admittedly, 2014 has the potential to be) Jeff Merkley could lose. Problem is we're not at that kind of atmosphere yet (or we wouldn't be talking about Democratic pickups in Kentucky and Georgia). Jason Conger isn't actually a bad recruit for the GOP, but it will take a disaster for Democrats to lose here.

18. Travis Childers entering the race for the Democrats moves the needle from "Mortal lock for Republicans no matter what" to "on very safe ground for Republicans".  Even  Chris McDaniel (or Thomas Carey whoever he is) would have to basically murder Cochran (or Childers) to lose this election. Simply, if Republicans blow an election in Mississippi, they don't deserve to exist.

19. New Mexico- This seat was only going to be competitive if Susana Martinez ran. She didn't and neither did any other remotely interesting Republican.

20. Virginia- Despite Ed Gillespie's entrance into the GOP (and probable loss to one of the "fish in the Potomac" to his right,  Anthony DeTora, A Congressional Policy adviser, Shak Hill an Insurance Professional, and Chuck Moss a Businessman), the dynamics of the race haven't changed much, instead other races (Mississippi). Oh, and fresh off of denying Ken Cuccinelli a Gubernatorial victory, Robert Sarvis is back...

Tennessee, Illinois, Hawaii, Texas, both South Carolina races, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Kansas, Alabama, Idaho and both Oklahoma races are safe (to point where apocalypse before they flip in 2014) for one party or another.

[NewYorkExpress]

In order of likeliness to flip in reverse order; (Obviously I'll be wrong about almost everything two years out)

34; Alabama; Shelby may draw a Tea Party backed challenge, but the Republicans are not going to lose here, no matter who the nominee is. If Shelby does draw a serious challenger, watch for Martha Roby, Luther Strange and Roy Moore to take a shot.

33. Hawaii- Even a nasty primary didn't help Republicans here in 2014. Schatz is Safe.

32. Arkansas- Boozman may still retire, and the Democrats may get Mark Pryor, Mike Beebe or Bill Halter to run (or if they're really unlucky Blanche Lincoln). But the reality is that this the equivalent to Hawaii 2012, where one party has a great candidate on paper (Linda Lingle) but loses in a blowout.

31. Louisiana- If Vitter wins election as Governor in 2015 (Which he should), than it's techincally an open seat. If Mary Landrieu loses the runoff this year (which she will) she could run here, and if Mitch Landrieu loses the Governors race, he could make it interesting. The reality is Democrats are no longer competitive here, except in New Orleans.

30. Idaho- Even if Raul Labrador wins the GOP Primary, the Democrats haven't been remotely competitive here since the days of Walt Minnick (and even that was a fluke)

29. Kansas- Jerry Moran may face a primary challenge (basically because he's in leadership), but Pat Roberts's victory proved that Democrats generally don't win in Kansas.

28. Maryland- While the Republicans just won the Governor's race, it's unlikely that will translate to a Senate race, even if Mikulski retires. With Dr. Ben Carson making it clear he will run for President, taking their most prominent candidate off the board (though not their best), The Democrat should win easily.

27. New York- Schumer should have minimal difficulty, unless 2016 is a GOP year and George Pataki is the nominee.

26. South Carolina- Tim Scott won't face a primary challenge (Republicans don't want to be seen as racist) and likely won't face a serious Democrat, but he does face a good chance of being on the ticket.

25. Utah- Mike Lee may face a Primary Challenge, but he should ride the base to victory. He won't face a serious Democrat either.

24. South Dakota- John Thune might end up on the ticket, but the reality is no matter the Republicans run, they will win (Though Herseth-Sandlin certainly could beat Kirsti Noem for her old House seat)

23. Vermont- Pat Leahy may not be Senate Pro Tempore anymore, but he will win re-election regardless.

22. Oklahoma- James Lankford should win re-election with ease

21. North Dakota- John Hoeven should also win easily.

20. Missouri- Even if Jay Nixon did run, he would have started off in a hole, in a state rapidly trending away from Democrats.

19. Kentucky- Like Mitch McConnell, this race could remain relatively close if Rand Paul is still the nominee, but if he's running for President, this race could end up being a blowout, especially if Paul is on the ticket. (That being said Alison Lundergan Grimes should have waited for this race anyways)

18. Iowa- The older Chuck Grassley gets, the more vulnerable he gets. Watch for Chet Culver and Dave Loesback as possible Democrats.

17. Georgia- Democrats chances are probably worse here with any-non Obama candidate on the ballot, but a pickup is possible if Senator Isakson steps down.

16. Connecticut-  Senator Blumenthal should be re-elected, but watch out for Former Governor Jodi Rell and Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele. If either run, this race could get interesting.

15- California Barbara Boxer's retirement (which I believe is likely) would set of sheer chaos on the Democratic side. Republicans certainly could sneak through, but they need their strongest candidates (Kevin McCarthy, Darrell Issa and Arnold Schwarzenegger) to do so.

14. Alaska- A Lisa Murkowski/Mark Begich/More Conservative Republican would be fun to watch, and would lead to a Begich victory. Otherwise it's a 2010 repeat, but we might be able to persuade Murkowski to become a Democrat anyway this time.

13. Oregon- Wyden is a strong incumbent, but Oregon is on the periphery of a swing state.

13b..  Washington- See Oregon, but with Patty Murray


11. Indiana- Even if Evan Bayh doesn't run, Senator Dan Coats is beatable, as he won by a relatively modest margin.

10. Arizona- If John McCain is the nominee, Democrats win, if it's anyone else, Republicans win.

9. New Hampshire- Kelly Ayotte is favored over any Democrat except Governor Hassan. Unfortunately for her, Hassan looks like she's running.

8. North Carolina- Richard Burr enters as favorite, but like Governor McCrory, strong opponents loom.

7. Nevada- Minority Leader Reid will be favored over any opponent except Governor Sandoval, but a Senate race is different than a Governor's race, which Sandoval's relatively pro-choice views and pro civil-unions will come under heavy fire in a GOP primary (and Reid's habit of meddling in Republican primaries will help here).

6. Colorado- Michael Bennett will start out in trouble, but the Colorado GOP just elected their best prospect in 2014.

5. Ohio- Rob Portman may run for President, but even if he doesn't, he may face a primary for his pro-same-sex marriage stance. If the Primary is successful, it likely will hand the seat to the Democrats.

4. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey should face a battle in this battleground state, and no matter who the Democrats nominate, this should be a tossup.
'
3. Florida- Marco Rubio faces a tough battle no matter he does, but Republicans best chance is for him to run for re-election. For Democrats, watch for Charlie Crist, Patrick Murphy and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

2. Wisconsin- Ron Johnson is in a deep hole, and while Governor Walker is likely to run for President, the GOP's best hope for holding seat is a Johnson retirement and Walker Senate bid. Otherwise, Johnson starts off in a hole, though he certainly can catch up.

1. Illinois- While the election certainly could be close if Senator Kirk runs, the GOP will lose either way. Illinois has one of the deepest Democratic benches in the country, so unless Rod Blagojevich or Alexi Giannoulias is the nominee, the Democrats should be victorious.