Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[bballrox4717]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - ?: This one could get really interesting considering Murkowski's popularity with Democrats and unpopularity with Republicans
Arizona - Tilt R: McCain is unpopular and could retire anyways
Arkansas - Likely R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Tilt D: Bennet has incumbent advantage in presidential year that has Clinton leading so far
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Lean R (I see no evidence that Rubio is in real danger)
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup: Kirk is going to give this a hell of fight
Indiana - Safe R
Iowa - Likely R: Grassley is running again right?
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Tilt R: This is a race if Nixon gets in.
Nevada - Tilt D: Could change if Sandoval runs or updated polling, but for now this rating makes the most sense given the climate
New Hampshire - Lean R: I don't really see where Ayotte is in danger either
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Tilt R: The right candidate makes this a potential race
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Tilt R: Portman isn't as popular as he was before, but he still has incumbent advantage
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Tossup/Tilt R: Toomey isn't going to go quietly but Dems have talent in PA
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Likely D
Wisconsin - Tossup

There are 3 clear pickup opportunities for Dems in Illinois, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Expanded opportunities in a poor Republican year are possible in Arizona, Missouri, and North Carolina. Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida seem like fools gold with the Republican talent and lack of Democratic talent there.

In a good Republican year, they can make up for Tea Party mess ups in Colorado and Nevada, but not much else.