The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Blackacre]

How often do approval rating polls get updated?

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Today:

Gallup (2/3-2/5): 42/52

IBD/TIPP (1/27-2/2): 42/48

Rassmussen (2/1-2/5): 53/47

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

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Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

They're using a LV screen, which is pretty ridiculous considering it's February 2017 with no election in sight. Meanwhile, Gallup and IBD are sampling adults. I think his true approval is somewhere in the middle -- slightly underwater, but not a majority disapprove. The "good" news is he still has a lot of room to fall.

Do the other pollsters prune the data to make sure their numbers represent the country as a whole? If so then I don't have much reason to doubt them. IDK why Ras uses a LV Screen for approvals...

[Blackacre]

Just a quick question:

If Trump's approval is 45-55 (-10%) and the margin of error is 3%, does that mean that both numbers have a MoE of 3% (between 42-58 (-16%) and 48-52 (-4%)), or does it mean that the difference has a MoE of 3% (between 43.5-56.5 (-13%) and 46.5-53.5 (-7%)). I assume it's the first but I'm not sure.

Both numbers have a MoE of 3, so you are correct that the range is between -16 and -4

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Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

[Blackacre]

Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

Yeah, at the rate this thread is going, it'll probably get long enough to merit a "2.0" thread by the end of this year.  Presumably Trump will still be in office at the end of 2017.

You should make that thread "The Official Trump Approval Ratings Thread 2.0" instead of "The Official Trump 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread"

[Blackacre]

It's worth noting that according to 538, Trump is more unpopular now than he has ever been.

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Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!

Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

Did Obama have a mandate for Obamacare?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-health-bill

But it still was a good and necessary thing, right?

Yes, he did. He won by seven points, and his party picked up nine seats in the Senate. As opposed to Trump, who lost by 2 points and whose party lost Senate seats

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By this point in 2009, Obama had already signed the stimulus into law though

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This is probably to be expected. Remember, when the news cycle was centered around Trump, he was getting his butt kicked in the polls. When the story was "Trump brags about sexual assault" or "Trump goes on a tweetstorm" or "Trump wants to ban Muslims" or "Trump flubs debate," he was losing by 7-9 points to HRC. It's only when the news cycle was focused on her emails was there a tightening.

Now that he's President, all the news is going to be about him. His tweetstorms, his party's healthcare bill, his Muslim bans, (and their blockage) his budget, his staff being insane, and so on. He has no foil in the form of HRC. He could try to engineer a bad story about the DNC to come out in October 2018, but that probably won't save his party the same way he was saved by Comey.

[Blackacre]

Oh dear.

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Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

[Blackacre]

Any approvals out of Ohio?