538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups

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Alright Nevada!

Also, why does 538 use Polls-Plus as the default for the Senate Forecast anyway?

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Looks like the coattails have arrived!

Hillary ordered the coattails on Amazon.com and didnt click free 2-day shipping, so they took roughly 14 days to get to her.

However, I always buy my tortured metaphors on Amazon Prime

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Senate Dems now clear 70% in polls-plus, Nevada is blue in all 3 forecasts and Cortez Mastro cleared 60% in polls-plus, and NC and MO have gone blue in the now-cast. The races are breaking for the Dems, though after NC and MO I don't expect any other seats to go blue unless something crazy happens in Florida.

In the polls-plus, Dems have a 30.1% chance of getting a majority between 53 and 59 seats, and 53/47 is just .3% more likely than 50/50.

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Thats not the weird one.

North Carolina, Polls-plus. Ross a 50.2% favourite, but the expected margin shows an exact tie, and on the "who's ahead in each Senate race" chart, NC is shown as R+0.1. What even?

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Holy crap, Missouri in the polls-plus.

I fail to check the forecast for 45 minutes or so to research for an essay due 5 days before the election, and suddenly polls-plus MO goes from 49.5% chance Kander win to a 60.1% chance Kander win. Completely got me by surprise, esp because I was fixated on the weird fluctuations in the NC race on the model

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Is the DSCC going to take the money they beat out of Murphy and give it to the Kentucky Dems then, or are they going to come to their senses and give Murphy the money he needs to win?

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Is the DSCC going to take the money they beat out of Murphy and give it to the Kentucky Dems then, or are they going to come to their senses and give Murphy the money he needs to win?

Murphy would be lucky to pull a Sestak at this point.

a what? Joe Sestak lost the general. That's why we're talking up McGinty and not defending Sestak's seat. Or is there something Im missing?

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Honestly, while the low level of polling in both states is absolutely maddening, I do suspect that Kander is a likelier winner than McGinty at this point. Blunt has been running completely asleep, while Toomey (and Kander, obviously) has been running a very good, solid campaign. Still possible, maybe likely, that Hillary's PA victory pulls in McGinty (someone better than Emerson needs to confirm Quinnipiac's findings here), but Toomey is by no means dead.

Yeah, this isn't far from the truth. McGinty has been getting slammed with negative advertising from Toomey (curiously they're attacks from the left on her) and is generally be portrayed terribly.

Really a shame the Democrats did so terribly in 2014 and lost seats like CO and IA, it made this year 10 times harder when it should even now be a slam dunk.

Yeah, 538's model would be giving the Dems a 95% chance to win the upper chamber if we won Colorado and one of Iowa or NC last time around and only had to pick up a net of 2-3 seats to take back the upper chamber. That would be a given with IL and WI, plus holding onto Nevada or taking Indiana. Plus PA/MO/NC/FL/KY/LA. If only we were actually a smart party

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Update: A poll came out in Kentucky that showed a normal race in line with what we all expected. Paul's chances went from 73% to 87%.

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second update: Blunt is back to being a favourite in Missouri