German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

A quick Google search reveals that they were afraid a bad result in Bavaria could have had negative repercussions on the federal election a week later.

[Beezer]

Just a friendly reminder that this is what happened after the last two grand coalitions. How any social democrat can be stupid enough to support a third installment is beyond me.

[Beezer]

This whole talk about "minority governments" is of course ridiculous to begin with once you take the partisan majorities in the Bundesrat into account. Right now the Grand Coalition controls just 22 of the chamber's 69 seats. So in that sense (considering that around 40% of all bills require the approval of the Bundesrat) we will get something akin to a minority government. As a matter of fact since 1990, I think there has only been a 3 year period in which a government has actually controlled a majority of seats in the Bundesrat as well.

[Beezer]

So the SPD state branch of Saxony-Anhalt has voted against the Grand Coalition. Shouldn't be that much of an obstacle as they only send a small number of delegates to the upcoming party convention. Still, all is not well in Schulzlandia.

[Beezer]

Berlin SPD also votes against the GroKo. Is it happening?



Polls like these also don't bode well for the chances of a grand coalition:

[Beezer]

History has been made!

[Beezer]

Given past trends, I don't see how the SPD will be able to retain its share of the vote under a Merkel government. So if the SPD drops another 3-4 points from its 20.5 showing in 2017 while the AfD is able to consolidate its vote among protest and blue-collar voters, a tie between the two appears at the very least possible.

[Beezer]

Electoral preferences sorted by gender and age:



https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/e0d2b01f-32ff-40f0-ba9f-50b5f761bb22/btw17_heft4.pdf (p. 91)

Not too many surprises I suppose. As is the case in other countries the AfD is a bit of a Männerpartei and also quite popular among 35-60 year olds. Female pensioners really love Merkel.

[Beezer]

I still have no clue why the SPD has chosen the topic of family reunification as their hill to die on during these negotiations. Do they honestly think this is how they can galvanize or regain blue collar voters?

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

This is just amazing. The CDU has not only dropped any pretense of being a conservative party, it has now ceded virtually all major ministries to the SPD in an effort to somehow keep Merkel in power for another 4 years. All the AfD now has to do is sit back and enjoy its rising poll numbers.

[Beezer]

BILD are reporting that SPD leaders are essentially telling Schulz to get lost and not accept the post of foreign minister.

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

So who will take over? Can Gabriel really return to this office after the rest of the party essentially sacrificed him? What about "Sad Clown" Nahles?

[Beezer]

Part of it has to do with the fact that Schulz categorically ruled out joining another Grand Coalition after the disastrous results only to then do a 180. It's interesting to see that the only SPD gains this year occurred during the period when the SPD was set to be an opposition party in the Bundestag. IMO the SPD's strategy of placing refugee family reunification at the center of their coalition negotiation strategy did not exactly help enamor them to the working class either.

SPD-results in 2017:

Saarland: 29.6 (-1)
Schleswig-Holstein: 27.3 (-3.1)
Northrhine-Westfalia: 31.2 (-7.9)
Germany: 20.5 (-5.2)
Lower Saxony: 36.9 (+4.3)

[Beezer]

Oh my...

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

And it's happened...

[Beezer]

Does it even count as a 'shock poll' if the polling firm in question has been obviously telegraphing it for some time?

Updated:

12th Dec - 22%
19th Dec - 21%
23rd Dec - 20.5%
2nd Jan - 19.5%
8th Jan - 19.5%
15th Jan - 18.5%
23rd Jan - 18.0%
29th Jan - 17.5%
5th Feb - 17.0%
12th Feb - 16.5%
19th Feb - 15.5%

One must also admire the half-a-percentage-point thing. Absolute classic.

Of course the really sad part is that you can't actually say with absolute certainty that these people are even the most obviously bent German polling firm.

While I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment that changes of half a point are nothing worth reporting, it should be noted that they're hardly the only ones "telegraphing" the SPD's demise...

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

...is there any particular reason why they decided to do a poll of the state election for the city of Cottbus? Bizarre.

There have recently been some incidents with migrant youths threatening or attacking local residents which has triggered protests, sometimes orchestrated by the far right.

[Beezer]

March 4, 2018 - The day the SPD died. You lose 11 points in the first GroKo, 5 points in the second one and then decide to get into this alliance for a third time? How goddamn stupid do you have to be in order to do that?

[Beezer]

Battle of the wills between Merkel and Seehofer. Who will blink first?

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[Beezer]

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/21/differing-views-of-immigrants-pose-a-test-for-germanys-coalition-government/