German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

Agreed, it shows you how big the difference between the Hamburg SPD and the national SPD (which is really doomed) is. It doesn't change the fact that the CDU dominance in Germany will fade...

God willing...

[Beezer]

Mayor Scholz (SPD) gets a 83% (!!!) approval rating.

He gets at least 70% approval from the voters of all parties (and 98% approval from SPD-voters).

And just like Merkel he is bland and dull as hell. Let that be a lesson to all aspiring politicians in Germany...

[Beezer]

Hochrechnung (ARD television):

SPD: 47
CDU: 16
Greens: 11.9
FDP: 7.1
Left: 8.6
AfD: 5.3

[Beezer]

Hochrechnung (ZDF television):

SPD: 46.7
CDU: 16
Greens: 11.6
FDP: 7.3
Left: 8.8
AfD: 5.4

[Beezer]

Lucke, completely at ease during an interview:

[Beezer]

AfD should be safely in now (ZDF)...

SPD: 46.7
CDU: 15.9
Greens: 11.7
FDP: 7.4
Left: 8.5
AfD: 5.5

[Beezer]

AfD @ 6.0 percent according to latest ZDF projection.

[Beezer]

Big news from the AfD. As expected the different factions are at war with one another with Bernd Lucke - dispelling rumors that he was about to leave the party - now calling for some sort of decision at a party conference on the party's future path. Makes you wonder though how the party, short of passing some sort of major program/manifesto, can discard a certain ideology at a conference.

[Beezer]

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

[Beezer]

Of course historical data doesn't necessarily tell us much about the future chances of success of a right-wing populist party. Nonetheless far right extremism remains as stigmatized as ever in (west) German society so I think the assertion that a populist party on the right can only do well if it credibly disassociates itself from the extrem right remains valid as well. Add to that the fact that infighting - as mentioned - tends to also scare away voters and you'll understand why the chances of the AfD entering the Bundestag in 2017 decreased substantially on sunday.

[Beezer]

Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

How do we best translate this new party name into English for our English-speaking friends on here ?

"Alliance for Progress & Awakening" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Upswing" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Departure" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Decampment" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Liftoff" ?

Is there any real English term for the word "Aufbruch" ?

Wikipedia has chosen "renewal" and that sounds rather accurate.

[Beezer]

There are also rumors that far from stepping down, Mutti will run for another term in 2017. My guess is that if she lacks an absolute majority she will complete the transformation of her party by entering a coalition with the Greens.

[Beezer]

Greek bailout vote: 63 CDU/CSU dissenters, up from 60 in July, 29 in February and 12 in 2012.

[Beezer]

If the media does report on the AfD, it tends to still focus on the infighting. Just like most of its sister parties it has called for the re-introduction of border controls though. http://www.alternativefuer.de/herbstoffensive-2015/

[Beezer]

CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

[Beezer]

I think if the AfD was a party not dissimilar to the FPÖ (ie having been in the political business for decades) we'd see a somewhat similar swing as well. But of course the AfD has to contend with the problems any right-wing party faces in Germany. They're lucky to even be invited to the dozens of talk shows that have dealt with the migration crisis on German tv in recent weeks.

[Beezer]

AfD - unsurprisingly - rising as of late:


http://pollytix.de/wahltrend

[Beezer]

Headlne # today: AfD would get 9% in Bavaria in federal election:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#by

[Beezer]

Alfa? I don't think anyone is really paying attention to them anymore. Lucke chose the worst possible time to start a new anti-€ party - at the moment when the eurozone crisis subsided (once again) only to be completely supplanted by the migrant crisis.

[Beezer]

A third of Germans think Merkel should step down over her handling of the migrant crisis, according to an INSA/Focus poll.

http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/drastische-forderung-wegen-fluechtlingspolitik-jeder-dritte-deutsche-will-merkels-ruecktritt_id_5008727.html

INSA also has the CDU/CSU at a 16 month low in their election poll:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

[Beezer]

Latest Emnid poll has CDU/CSU at 37%, worst result since Mai of 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

[Beezer]

Infratest dimap poll, party preferences divided into west and east.

West/East
CDU 39/34
SPD 25/19
Greens 13/5
Left 6/20
FDP 6/3
AfD 7/11

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/ost.htm

[Beezer]

By 2017 not even a black-green coalition may be possible. Guess more GroKo for Germany then...

[Beezer]

If the FDP crept past the 5%-threshold, neither CDU/Greens, CDU/FDP nor SPD/Greens/Left would be able to form a majority with the shares as shown in the poll above. Wonder if the CDU could be enticed to go for the Jamaica option in such a scenario.

[Beezer]

Well, nothing major. CDU down by 2 (36), Left and AfD down by 1 each (9 and 6 respectively), FDP up by 2 (6). Then again these guys also had the FDP at 7 a couple of months ago.