German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

Green MP in Lower Saxony will apparently defect to the CDU, meaning the red-green coalition has lost its majority.

[Beezer]

I think the AfD and Green poll numbers are correct and for the FDP we'll have to wait and see what happens after Barney Lindner's comments.

Nobody really gives a crap about Crimea so I doubt these comments will move the needle.

[Beezer]

Not that Merkel has contributed anything to that...

But yeah most people feel that there is no need to change anything. What a boring election campaign it's been thus far. No one is actually addressing any of the noteworthy issues (migration, Europe etc.).

[Beezer]

CSU election poster that tells us the best way to facilitate integration is to practice the "Leitkultur".



My results:

AfD: 73%
CDU: 66%
FDP: 53%
SPD: 44%
Greens: 28%
Left: 22%

[Beezer]

Well, guess I gotta vote for the Party of Reason...

[Beezer]

Germans don't go for joke candidates or parties...ever. You guys ought to know this.

[Beezer]

Both Merkel and Schulz are increasingly unpopular:

[Beezer]

I love pollsters. First headline: "Immigration not a particularly important topic for voters." Second one: "Next government's primary concern should be immigration" (say voters)

[Beezer]

Merkel choking?



http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/yougov.htm

[Beezer]

Well, the demise of Schulz may actually have hurt the CDU/CSU in the sense that some of their dissatisfied voters may now once again feel they can afford to send a message to Merkel by voting AfD in light of the fact that Schulz is nowhere close to winning the chancellery.

[Beezer]

Yikes. Press F to pay respects for the SPD

[Beezer]

If you take the aggregate poll data you get this breakdown of seats:



Black-yellow are 12 seats short of a majority, a leftist coalition would need 55 additional seats. And remember when red-green was a thing? They're a remarkable 118 seats short of a governing majority.

[Beezer]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

Cause the SPD has been a 22-25% party for close to a decade now.

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

Once again illustrates that right-wing populist voters are not motivated by economic concerns or a fear of losing their jobs:

"What are the issues that determine your vote?"



Asylum and immigration / Jobs and welfare / Terrorism / Education / Crime

[Beezer]

More evidence of a late AfD-surge?

[Beezer]

What's the reason for the surge?

I guess calling the political elite "pigs" that want to foment a civil war is a vote winner these days.

[Beezer]

Record low for the SPD now looking more likely with every passing day...

INSA:

[Beezer]

Maybe we'll give the Dutch or Belgians a run for their money when it comes to the length of negotiations. The way I see it there are plenty of roadblocks to the two likely coalitions.

Grand Coalition: If the SPD manages to beat its previous record low (looking more likely each day), I just can't see how they can then enter government once again unless the party really wants to come in third at the next election. Of course they could sell it as the sole viable option with them only entering the government in the interest of democratic stability.

Jamaica: Can the CSU really share a cabinet table with the Greens? State elections are coming up in Bavaria next year. The FDP and Greens will also be aware of the fact that Merkel has a habit of destroying all junior coalition partners. There are plenty of integrationist projects on the horizon and the FDP will remember that its tacit approval for all sorts of eurozone rescue mechanisms ultimately played a key role in the rise of the AfD and the former's failure to enter parliament. Are they really willing to once again enter such a minefield? Merkel's desire to probably leave a lasting eurozone legacy provide the FDP with limited options to put a stop to Macron's reform projects.

As has already been mentioned, Germans don't do minority governments and the CDU/CSU will most certainly avoid any sort of cooperation with the AfD.

But who knows, perhaps we'll get another grand coalition agreement by late October.

[Beezer]

Latest Allensbach data not looking too great for Merkel either...



http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/allensbach.htm

[Beezer]

If Jamaika and the Wiz Khalifa option prove to be impossible, a new Groko will be formed anyway. The responsibility argument will make the SPD do it.

Yeah, fresh elections would probably only help the AfD and since most parties these days appear to primarily be concerned with keeping the party at bay, Schulz and friends would eventually bite the bullet.

[Beezer]

Civey and their special sauce:



A week ago:

[Beezer]

YouGov has the FDP at only 7%. Which would mean that a Jamaica coalition would wind up with 351 seats, a relatively slim majority of just 8. Hardly comforting given the ideological gaps on some issues.



https://yougov.de/news/2017/09/19/yougov-errechnet-mit-neuem-ansatz-die-sitzverteilu/

[Beezer]

Illustrates why Jamaica is a more likely option than ever before:

How do you rate Angela Merkel?



https://civey.com/umfragen/countdown_bundestagswahl_bewertung_spitzenkandidaten?utm_source=civey_twitter&utm_medium=link&utm_content=countdown_kandidaten&utm_campaign=tweet

Makes me wonder though what kind of AfD supporter actually rates Merkel positively.