German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

So they're essentially just repurposing old Trump memes?

[Beezer]

Well, if Berlin is anything to go by, a RRG coalition at the federal level could provide a Klöckner-led CDU with an outright majority.

[Beezer]

By the end of February the SPD will be at 75%.

[Beezer]

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern

Who cares about history though when your last 2 election results look like this:

2013: 25.7
2009: 23.0

Moreover the last time the SPD polled consistently in the low 30s (i.e. 32% or more) was about a decade ago:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2006.htm
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2007.htm

If I had to wager some money on whether the SPD was going to get either 20 or 30% of the vote, I'd definitely be more comfortable placing a bet on the former. The SPD's problem (and I suppose this applies to most socdems) has been that it's not really the first choice for any particular segment of society anymore. Left-leaning people with a university degree and a home in the suburbs can opt for the Greens or more recently the Merkel-CDU as well. People in their 20s who dream of smashing globalization are also more at home in the Left Party or the Greens while the working class/precariat prefers the Left or now the AfD. All of those people could see themselves as SPD-voters as well I suppose but ultimately the SPD's message has become so diluted that it's not surprising the party has recently come in third or even fourth in state elections. Maybe a fresh face like Schulz can provide a bit of a bounce in the short term but the broader trend behind the SPD's demise will take more than a eurocrat to reverse - if that's even possible in this day and age.

[Beezer]

Just another daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes.  
  
New poll from yesterday by "Trend Research Hamburg":  
  
SPD 30%  
CDU 30%  
AfD 13%  
Linke 9%  
Grüne 7%  
FDP 6%  
  
Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not. By the way in the last two weeks the SPD got around 5.000 new members, ten times as much as normal.

At this pace the next Chancellor will be Schulz, unless something highly unexpected occurs. The question then becomes: who will be the SPD's coalition partner(s)?

Highly unexpected like the rise of the SPD out of nowhere? This most certainly reminds me of the Green rise after Fukushima. And it of course also slowly but surely dissipated over time.

[Beezer]

Gauland and others argue that there is no way the expulsion will be backed by the party's court of arbitration. Hence they voted against it. I personally think Höcke is a liability, but let's just once again make it clear that "monument of shame" didn't refer to the monument itself but to the acts behind it. The guy has a rather checkered past and I do think the party would be better off w/o him but ultimately this expulsion will fail because he will be able to make the case that I have just presented.

[Beezer]

AfD and Greens both lose 1, rest unchanged:

[Beezer]

Gauland and others argue that there is no way the expulsion will be backed by the party's court of arbitration. Hence they voted against it. I personally think Höcke is a liability, but let's just once again make it clear that "monument of shame" didn't refer to the monument itself but to the acts behind it. The guy has a rather checkered past and I do think the party would be better off w/o him but ultimately this expulsion will fail because he will be able to make the case that I have just presented.

nice try.

No one is denying that Höcke is by far the most right-wing prominent politician out there (even though it's also sensible to make a distinction between Nazi and völkisch sentiments). His rhetoric is questionable at best and he knew that the comments could be interpreted in a variety of ways. At the same time he also knew that others (leftist publishers like Augstein) have also referred to the monument in a similar manner, hence expelling him on the basis of that comment is a rather difficult endeavor.

As one of the few people on this board who would prefer to to see a right-of-center party in the Bundestag, I do actually think the AfD would be better off w/o Höcke and some of his pals but achieving this may be close to impossible w/o sinking the entire party.

[Beezer]

Schulz, slayer of eco-hippies...

[Beezer]

NRW offers quite a few pitfalls for the SPD. If a red-red-green government has an abysmal couple of months leading up the federal election, this could of course also be used by the CDU for their own "project fear" at the national level.

[Beezer]

AfD with worst Allensbach result since December of 2015; last time the Greens were below 9% with this particular pollster was almost exactly 9 years ago.



Changes compared to Allensbach's #s 4 weeks ago:

CDU: -3
AfD: -3
Left: -1.5
Greens: -1
FDP: 0
SPD: +7.5

[Beezer]

Still think the AfD is primarily hemorrhaging voters due to infighting and that on top of that we're seeing the convention bounce (or drop) effect - AfD voters probably aren't too keen on taking part in polls right now.

[Beezer]

SPD has leapfrogged the CDU/CSU in the infratest dimap poll for the first time since 2006.



CDU -3
SPD + 4
Left -1
AfD -1
Greens, FDP 0

[Beezer]

I wouldn't call it irrelevant, after all most voters for the smaller parties know that not splitting their ticket will result in essentially wasting their "Erststimme". But yeah, the old tricks are no longer possible, so I suppose it's irrelevant from a distribution of seats angle.

[Beezer]

FDP leapfrogs Greens according to INSA:



CDU/CSU -1
SPD +2
Left -1.5
Greens 0
FDP + 1.5
AfD 0

[Beezer]

SPD with a steep rise in NRW:



Compared with January #s:

SPD +5
CDU -3
Greens -2
FDP +2
Left -1
AfD -1

[Beezer]

I suppose the question going forward is if the SPD wants a leftist coalition at the federal level. In which case those 6 Bundesrat votes from NRW should probably be kept in the red-green(-red) camp rather than use it as a starting point for a sozialliberale renaissance. Although I suppose a federal traffic light coalition may sound somewhat enticing as well...

[Beezer]

Red-red-green in its various guises has 34 seats in the Bundesrat (out of 69) right now. They'd be rather stupid if they didn't use the opportunity to get to a majority with Saarland's 3 seats.

[Beezer]

But, but...what about the Schulz Train?

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

...is also quite a bad result for the Afd.

Meh, the AfD had been polling at 6% for quite a while there. They will still see this as evidence that they're now the third force in German politics.

[Beezer]

...is also quite a bad result for the Afd.

Meh, the AfD had been polling at 6% for quite a while there. They will still see this as evidence that they're now the third force in German politics.

well, maybe the strong "leftish populist" western Linkspartei is a way to decrease AfD numbers after all.

They are atm surely the third force, which says more about the other small parties, imho.

This is Lafontaine's home state after all so I wouldn't read too much into these numbers.

[Beezer]

Red-red-green losing votes. This along with the train wreck in Berlin I guess indicates that Schulz would be wise to not get too cozy with the Greens and Left before election day.

[Beezer]

only the CDU can celebrate today.

 
  
I agree with that. The rest of the comment though? In a week nobody will talk about this election anymore. In Germany live more Arabs then Saarländers. In the grand scheme of things that election won't be a big deal. I think I wrote it before: Either the SPD lands an unexpected victory or everything will stay the same.  
  
I mean this result maybe isn't great for the SPD but then again if we compare it with the last couple elections it's absolute norm:  
  
2004: 30.8%
2009: 24.5%
2012: 30.6%
2017: 30.0%
 
So with a relatively even result in 2004 in the Saarland they reached 34,2% in the General Election the next year. If the SPD scores that high this year it would be very likely that we have a Godchancellor afterwards. 

If its and buts were candy and nuts...

I don't think we can just compare elections in completely different electoral environments like that. The SPD's natural home in recent years has been 25%. Back in the mid-00s it was closer to 35%. Maybe the Schulz-effect in the polls was similar to the US convention bounce. Ie SPD voters were more eager to take part in polls while Christian Democrats declined to take part. Schulz is no miracle worker, his focus on "wage equality" and more Europe isn't exactly going to entice many AfD-voters or people sitting on the fence to join the SPD.

[Beezer]

AfD inching upward again...cause of absentee ballots? If I remember correctly they really underestimated the AfD vote in Berlin because of that.