Busting the "both sides do it" myth (user search)
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  Busting the "both sides do it" myth (search mode)
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Author Topic: Busting the "both sides do it" myth  (Read 7255 times)
Beezer
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Posts: 1,907


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

« on: January 05, 2013, 08:45:45 AM »
« edited: January 05, 2013, 08:59:06 AM by Beezer »

Regardless of who gerrymandered to what extent, it seems clear that the GOP did a better job:

http://brennan.3cdn.net/5890614be697b3738b_ezm6b5l3r.pdf

Redistricting may have changed which party won the election in at least 25 House districts. Because of redistricting, it is likely that the GOP won about six more seats overall in 2012 than they would have under the old district lines.

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Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,907


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2013, 09:50:25 AM »

I still don't quite get one of Wang's conclusions (or rather it appears that he focuses on the wrong numbers imo). He writes In the states listed above, the net effect of both parties’ redistricting combined was R+11.5 seats. Putting all of this redistricting into nonpartisan commissions would lead to a swing of at least 23 seats. However in the same chart the net gain in House seats by the GOP in the 9 worst gerrymandered states compared to his simulation which just looks at "structural advantages" is "just" 7.1. This is much closer to the aforementioned assessment of the Brennan Center which comes up with a net gain of 6 seats by the GOP thanks to redistricting across the country. Seems to me then that gerrymandering helps the GOP but it wasn't the deciding factor.
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