Looks like PA was the tipping point state

[Beezer]

Could PA be in play at some point in the not too distant future? Looking at some of the #s it was leaning left by around 5 points 8 years ago (Kerry won it by 2.5 points but lost the election by 2.46). This time around it's only leaning left by around 2 points and the GOP has made some huge gains in the western part of the state, bordering WV and OH. Places like Greene, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland County have shifted to the GOP by 20-28 points over the last 12 years. Are these places too small to make much of a dent or could the GOP in PA replicate some of the success it's been having in neighboring WV?

[Beezer]

Interesting stuff, thanks for your insights. What's the story with Dauphin County btw? Voted for Bush by 9 and now for Obama by around 6. Similar story in Monroe County which voted for Bush twice but was won by Obama by around 13 points. Just a better get out the vote effort by the Democrats?

[Beezer]

If CO drifts further towards the Dems because of Hispanic growth, then how else does the GOP get to 270?  If not PA, then what's the alternative?

I'd argue that there is none. Seems to me like the best path to 270 for the GOP would be to try and win FL, OH and PA and hope to hold on to all the other states that they have. PA has been trending somewhat to the GOP (check that, it hasn't moved as far to the left as the rest of the country) while the next closest state, Colorado, has become rather blue.

Between 04 and 2012 the US (sans PA) has moved 6.16 points towards the Democrats while PA has moved just 2.90 points to the left. Of course one can argue that it's still moved to the left (Kerry won it by 2.5 points, Obama's leading by 5.4) and cosidering its Democratic credentials it was always going to be lagging behind the rest of the country but it's now just 2 points to the left of the rest of the country. Ie, if a GOP candidate wins the popular vote by 2-3 points, PA could be in play. Then again one has to wonder if a Republican will ever again win the popular vote by more than 2.5 points.

[Beezer]

BTW, looking at the latest data it looks as if Philadelphia County's winning margin alone was once again enough for Obama to carry the state (492k vs Romney's 482k lead in all Republican counties).