2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[coloradocowboi]

Colorado Tilt R Michael Bennett will almost certainly be facing a stronger candidate than Jane Norton or Ken Buck, especially if the GOP nominates Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, or Mark Scheffel.

Oh no! Mark Scheffel, look out! If there is one thing Bennet fears, it has got to be archconservatives from swing-voter rich Douglas Co.

I'm sorry, but once again you are all on crack. The GOP bench in CO is thin. Joke all you want about Coffman and buttsecks, but the guy has never been held to the kind of media scrutiny a Senate campaign would bring.

I have posted like seven times here, and every time it is to say the same thing. But here we go again.

Cory Gardner won Colorado by 2.5 points in a year that was really something special for Republicans. Yes, voter turnout was higher in CO than the nation as a whole, but it was still lower than a Presidential year. Gardner, the GOP's star recruit, would have gone down hard in 2012. He very well might have lost in 2010 as well. So, he really did just get lucky. He ran in the right year. Mike Coffman will not be doing that. He'll be running with Presidential level turnout, when Latinos and gays and college students make up a larger portion of the electorate.

Speaking of turnout, Coffman won Adams Co. this time around, when he lost it in 2012. Why? Because Adams Co. had some of the lowest voter turnout it has seen in decades. It is a reliably blue county that barely went for Udall and Hick, and even voted against its own district attorney for AG. Democrats in AdamsCo stayed home because the central party was too moderate on economic issues, and too left on social issues, and its a blue collar county. Something similar happened in Pueblo. However, there is no reason to believe that this will happen again. In fact, a Clinton campaign will probably appeal to working class Latinos even more than Obama or Hickenlooper does and give Bennet coattails.

Also, Michael Bennet is a better candidate than Mark Udall. Yes, he isn't as handsome or charming, but he is a smarter politician and more moderate. Also, he doesn't need to be handsome or charming against Mike Coffman, because Coffman is neither. Cory Gardner looks like the high school quarterback all grown up, has a lovely family, and is just a likable guy. Coffman looks like the murderer played by Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones," lives miles away from his wife (gay buttsecks rumors here?), and is frigid and weird. He easily lost every debate he had against Romanoff, but benefited from a general anger towards Democrats and low turnout in Adams Co. I am not even sure he will win his congressional seat next year, to be honest, with Morgan Carroll in the race.

Finally, Coffman has never been the subject of media scrutiny. In fact, the Denver Post has covered for his ass multiple times, and the cable networks never really paid attention to him. He is a birther, a flip flopper on immigration, a serial misspeaker, and I just don't see how he will make a favorable impression when the cameras are turned on him. Nominating this guy would be a huuuuuuge mistake for the Republican Party. If he or his wife (who is equally untalented and camera-awkward) is the nominee, I would move this to Likely Dem.

Now, on the other hand, there are a few possibilities for strong GOP candidates, but they might not be palatable to the COGOP's far-right primary electorate. If they want to move the needle and make this a toss up in a presidential year they need: A. a woman, B. or a Latino, C. or both Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff. They need someone who cuts a moderate profile and keeps their mouth shut about abortion and gay rights. And they need someone who is as camera ready as Conman Cory. These people exist, but I doubt they get nominated.

[coloradocowboi]

Colorado Tilt R Michael Bennett will almost certainly be facing a stronger candidate than Jane Norton or Ken Buck, especially if the GOP nominates Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, or Mark Scheffel.

Now, on the other hand, there are a few possibilities for strong GOP candidates, but they might not be palatable to the COGOP's far-right primary electorate. If they want to move the needle and make this a toss up in a presidential year they need: A. a woman, B. or a Latino, C. or both Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff. They need someone who cuts a moderate profile and keeps their mouth shut about abortion and gay rights. And they need someone who is as camera ready as Conman Cory. These people exist, but I doubt they get nominated.

Who are you thinking of in particular?

The CW is that the field consists of the below (listed in no particular order), so if you know people beyond this list, defintely interested to hear the names:

Mike Coffman
Ken Buck
Cynthia Coffman
Scott Tipton
Scott Gessler
Walker Stapleton
Mark Scheffel

None of those people except maybe Cindy or Stapleton could win. They all start off as underdogs.

Coffman 1--I've already gone over why he is a bad idea
C2 aka Cindy--Not exactly the sharpest bulb. She could win. But she would be an underdog unless 2016 is a GOP favored year, which it just doesn't look to be. Higher voter turnout would bury her. Also, people forget she outspent her opponent 20:1 last election. That won't happen with Bennet.
Scheffel--He's a nobody from CO's most conservative major county. A rightwing white male will lose CO under all circumstances in 2016, the electorate is too polarized and the precious votes in the middle are easily spooked.
This is also why Tipton is a bad idea, although he is more moderate. He won't run anyway. He is doing well in a nominally competitive district. He can stay there as long as he likes.
Scott Gessler and Ken Buck are even worse. One is known for corruption scandals and intimidating Mexican-American voters, while the other is known as being pro-life with no exceptions and thinking gay people are sick. They would be the worst ideas of all, because they could put CD 3 and 6 in jeopardy and hurt the GOP statewide.
Stapleton is also a wet blanket, but he has a ton of money and flip flops all the time. He is like the fat Cory Gardner. So, he could feasibly win. I still don't think he has Gardner's intelligence or charm though.

The best bet would be Jane Norton. She's a woman, a moderate, and can raise a ton of cash. She will never be nominated though. State senators/reps like Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff, Ellen Roberts, Jeanne (sp?) White, and even ex-rep BJ Nikkel would have the cash and name-recognition disadvantage, but in the right climate could also make this race very competitive. None of them, I'm afraid, could clear the ridiculous conservative litmus test to get out of the primary unless the Tea Party vote was severely fractured. So, I'd write the GOP off on this race. It's fool's gold for them. They are gonna nominate a boring, old white guy a la Mitt Romney and then be shocked when he fails to win women or Latino voters.

The GOP has got to get with the times. Their voter base is dying out, and this weird propagandistic American exceptionalism that disenfrachises gays and people of color is going to destroy them. If they nominated moderate women they would probably win every election in Colorado, but instead they trot out Both ways Bob and then are shocked that he loses. I'm more shocked he ever even came close. He is out of touch. Most of them are. And it's only going to be harder and harder for them to win if they keep nominating people like that.