Chesham and Amersham is notable since it's having a by-election soon and is one of those Tory Remain seats. The Tory majority is very strong there so it would be a huge upset if it flipped, but whether it swings to or from the Tories, and if it's the latter how much, could be interesting to see.
Yes, it was over 50% in 1997.
I've been trying to compile a list, but off the top of my head:
Sutton Coldfield
East Surrey [Geoffrey Howe's constituency]
Huntingdon [John Major's constituency]
Wokingham
Arundel and South Downs
Ruislip-Northwood
Kensington
Beaconsfield was extremely close despite minor right-wing parties getting 9% combined
I'm sure there are a few more. It would be nice if someone could find them!
According to the results obtained via
www.electionprediction.org, there were 13 of them (this site,
a fortiori some of the comments, now seem positively ancient):
Sutton Coldfield (Norman Fowler)
South Staffordshire
Huntingdon (Major, only 55%+ result)
Kensington & Chelsea (Alan Clark)
Ruislip-Northwood
Wokingham (John Redwood)
Chesham & Amersham
East Surrey
Surrey Heath
Horsham (Francis Maude)
North Hampshire
Aldershot
New Forest West
Also they were at 49.8% in Beaconsfield, Esher & Walton, Maidenhead (Theresa May), Buckingham(John Bercow), Rayleigh and Wealden.
Considering these 19 seats, that's 2 seats in northern Birmingham, the Tory leader's seat, the richest part of the UK, a cluster of 6 seats from Reading to London, 1 seat in Essex, 1 exurban seat in West Sussex, 1 rural Hampshire seat, 2 seats in Hampshire adjoined by 2 others in Surrey, 1 commuter seat in Surrey and 1 exurban seat in Surrey.
All are well-off, to put it mildly, and are solid Tory now except for Esher and Kensington, but it is unlikely most of them would be among even the 50 safest seats nowadays. The exception is Rayleigh, which had a
70%+ result for them in 2019, which they didn't have in 1992, with a particularly obnoxious MP to boot!
