TX-06: Dems in Disarray!

[DINGO Joe]

Is it just me or does it seem like an absurdly low turnout on both sides? 55-60K total for both parties in a district that had around 330K last November. It was treated like a primary by the Dems where their candidate was thought to be a lock.

I guess a comparison could be made with LA-02 which is a minority district that had around 90,000 votes a week back.

[DINGO Joe]

Is Sanchez done, or can she still squeak into the runoff?

It would require a minor miracle from the remaining vote in Tarrant.

Not really sure why the Dems ran several candidates capable of getting more than 5% here. Should have coalesced around one and forced others out/to states of non-campaigning. Then you can get someone to 30% and basically guarantee they advance.

While I didn't follow this much, it doesn't seem like any candidate did anything worthy of "coalescing" and given the demographics of the district  it would take an exceptional candidate to generate enough interest to make the runoff competitive.  Obviously, none of these could do it.  Of course, the Rs were mediocre too.

[DINGO Joe]

One thing the 3 congressional special elections so far make clear is Republican turnout relative to democratic turnout is quite high, in Louisiana, turnout relative to 2020 was higher in LA 5 than LA 2, with LA5 being the more republican district.

In TX 6, turnout was higher in the more Republican areas of the district, this is a good sign for Republicans as a turnout advantage in congressional special elections often means a turnout advantage in the coming midterm.

Well, turnout is generally higher in every election in LA 5 vs LA 2 because minority turnout almost never matches white turnout. 

Although LA 2 did manage a higher turnout than TX 06.  Go figure.

[DINGO Joe]

Without knowing anything about anything, I'd say Elizey winning the early vote in Tarrant makes him likely to win.

[DINGO Joe]

The final vote tally was just over 39,000 votes or a little under half of the first round which already was the lowest turnout of the Congressional special elections this year.

[DINGO Joe]

Also any tea leaves from this SE are likely suspect until we see results from other places such as NM-01 and in November VA-GOV?

Been out of the game for awhile but this caught my eye so chose to check in on Atlas for the first time in a bit...

Welcome back. That's broadly correct - except for the fact that the NM-01 election has already happened.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_Mexico%27s_1st_congressional_district_special_election

I would like to amusingly note again that Stansbury got more votes by herself in that election than all 23 candidates got in the first round of TX 06