Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[DINGO Joe]

So just glancing around - for the Democratic primary alone - it appears there are at least 75,000 votes outstanding in Fulton/Dekalb combined, and potentially 50,000 or more in Gwinnett/Cobb.

On top of that, there are still plenty of counties where mail ballots are obviously not (fully) counted. Forsyth is one example: there should be no fewer than 10,000 D ballots there (maybe closer to 15-20k), yet there are only around 6,000 D presently.

Floyd is another example: only around 1,500 D presently, when it will likely end up in the 4k range.

Several thousand D ballots at minimum haven't been counted in Bibb based on its turnout relative to Muscogee and Richmond.

My estimates based on comparing votes counted by vote type and number of absentees reported as returned:

Fulton has around 20k left, DeKalb maybe around 75k.

Gwinnett around 50k, Cobb 35k.

Forsyth has yet to report any mail-in absentees, around 9k or to there.

Bibb hasn't even included any absentees (mail-in or early in person) in their totals, should be around 17k votes there.

Chatham looks about 25k short too

[DINGO Joe]

OK, so the status shown via SoS is a bit confusing and counterintuitive, but I think I've deciphered what it means.

The counties in green (47) have completely finished counting all results: ED, AIP, post-March ABM and pre-March ABM.

The counties in purple (100) have completely finished counting all Election Day vote, but have not completed their mail ballot counts (or even potentially EV, though that's almost always counted first by counties).

The counties in yellow (10) apparently have not finished counting neither their Election Day ballots nor their mail ballots.

Not sure what's up with Jasper and Echols; glitches, presumably. It's also possible that pre-March ballots are not included for the "completely reported" status, as they were technically for a different primary/on a different day and so may be treated in a separate category by some/all counties when measuring this status.

This doesn't include provisional ballots, which cannot be finalized until after close of business on Friday.

I dunno if places like Coweta and Houston are complete, they aren't sharing the results with anyone.

Alright--Coweta just updated.

[DINGO Joe]

I see that the front runner in the GA-14 R primary is an open QAnon supporter.  It's a 75% Trump district so the winner of the runoff will go to Congress.

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 925,180 (50.77%)
GOP PPP: 897,146 (49.23%)
TOTAL: 1,822,326

DEM SEN: 1,010,150 (51.93%)
GOP SEN: 935,017 (48.07%)
TOTAL: 1,945,167

PPP/SEN gap grew by another 2k: now at 122,841. Maybe a bunch of people did skip the presidential contest, but a 6% undervote seems way too high. There still surely has to be tens of thousands of PPP-only mail ballots to be counted.

I thought the SOS site says none of the PPP-only vote has been added.  It's been counted, but not added.

[DINGO Joe]

I see that the front runner in the GA-14 R primary is an open QAnon supporter.  It's a 75% Trump district so the winner of the runoff will go to Congress.

here's the WaPo article btw

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/georgia-republican-and-qanon-believer-favored-to-win-us-house-seat/2020/06/11/f52bc004-ac13-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html

[DINGO Joe]

I assume the fact that Ga has an ungodly number of house seats and counties are somehow related.  Also, why is HD-179 on the list?

[DINGO Joe]

Thanks for the info.  I knew that the one person one vote was heavily abused back in the day and obviously that's how they did it.

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,066,056 (53.21%)
GOP PPP: 937,516 (46.79%)
TOTAL: 2,003,572

DEM SEN: 1,164,224 (54.25%)
GOP SEN: 981,850 (45.75%)
TOTAL: 2,146,074

PPP/SEN gap is still growing: grew by another 1.5k since 6/19: now at 142,502. I guess SoS doesn't care about those PPP-only ballots...

Turns out there's a separate page for March ballots

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/102879/web.254232/#/summary

Of major counties, DeKalb and Hall haven't reported.  Looks like the D Presidential vote will exceed the D Senate vote by at least 75,000.

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

That was mainly the final update from Fulton.  Hall has submitted it's final update including PPP only so when the state website updates it'll tic a little R, but DeKalb still has to submit it's final and PPP only.

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

Have these margins ever been a thing in GA in the current political paradigm (mainly post-2008)?

Well, D turnout exceeded R turnout in 2008 (by  about 5pts), though there was a rural white component to the D vote in 2008 that no longer exists.  I'm sure some fantastic maps can be made showing the shift in vote for each party between those two primaries. 

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,264,201 (54.54%)
GOP PPP: 1,053,532 (45.46%)
TOTAL: 2,317,733

DEM SEN: 1,191,207 (53.88%)
GOP SEN: 1,019,830 (46.12%)
TOTAL: 2,211,037

Nearly 50k new votes across both contests (49484 in PPP, 47565 in SEN). This drop was heavily-GOP (69% R in PPP, 75% R in SEN): enough to erase the double-digit DEM lead in PPP and reduce both contests' margins by roughly 1 percentage point.

They botched the update of Hall county, it's been undone.  Really just waiting for DeKalb to finalize and they don't seem to be in any hurry.

[DINGO Joe]

DeKalb has finalized their vote just a matter of when it'll post on the state website.  Biden will finish with about 40000 votes more than Trump statewide and the D vote will be about 255000 more than R.  Senate won't change much.

[DINGO Joe]

It's a shame that Atlanta doesn't really grow towards the Bama side or else these R exburbs could have already been shoved into Alabama making Georgia Titanium D.  Of course Alabama would be even more deplorable

[DINGO Joe]

Did buttmunch Raffensperger ever put up a page with both parts of the presidential primary vote combined?  I can just find the separate counts still.