KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[DINGO Joe]

Svaty lost rural Kansas to Kelly in the primary.  Hard to believe the conspiracies to kneecap him.

[DINGO Joe]

The KS Senate race isnt likely R,its a tossup. Dont go by the Cook, Sabato analyst, they are looking at what it will take Dems to get to 50, ME, AZ, AL and CO will, this seat is a seat that Dems can pad their Senate majority along with IA, AK, NC and GA

Do you say whatever inane BS pops into your head at any given time or do you carefully plan out your crap ahead of time?

Please take a deep breath and go to your happy place in your head and then resume posting.

[DINGO Joe]

Hilarious this means that Republicans will continue to get all of their KS Senators from KS-01. Both Jerry Moran and Pat Roberts represented KS-01.

Coincidentally, back in the 2010 cycle, I made a comment that Republicans were better off because at the time the stark divides between moderate and conservative KS factions were centered in the Eastern Part of the state, and thus such a western Representative would be "above the fray".

Well depending on how they draw it, the Western District could come all the way East.  You'd think that the metro areas might get tired of the Western areas getting all the Senators.

[DINGO Joe]

Can anyone give me a heads-up on the demographics of Kansas.  Rural and white, I know, but are they changing?  Does being adjacent to New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas suggest a growing Latino population?  Are Wichita or the KC suburbs growing at a meaningful rate?

The only meaningful growth is the KC metro.  Wichita has minimal growth and the rest of the state has minimal to major population declines.    The SW part of the state has a substantial (almost majority) but non-voting Hispanic population.  Like just about every state, each election cycle means more metro voters and fewer rural voters.

[DINGO Joe]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

Not saying they shouldn't do that, but there's probably more upside in focusing on similar communities in Wyandotte or Sedgwick as they're putting down deeper roots. 

[DINGO Joe]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

There are multiple southwestern counties that are majority Hispanic/Latinx with adult populations of 20,000+ that average 15-20% turnout, often less. These are mostly based in micropolitan areas like Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal - among others - that are well-concentrated.

There is a valuable long game here. Activating these new voters puts multiple state legislative districts in play, impacts redistricting, and of course provides votes at the top of the ticket that could be influential in a potentially tight statewide race.

Based on 2018 estimates for adult population (votes cast in 2018 Gov)

Finney 25600 (8600)
Ford 24700  (7100)
Seward 14900 (3800)
Wyandotte  119000 (42000)

Seward is probably the only one with an adult population that is majority non-white. The others are probably about 50-50 with Wyandotte much more diverse. Not saying you shouldn't try to register any eligible voter, but the work force in SW KS is pretty transitory. They aren't looking to work at the slaughterhouse forever.  The workforce in Wyandotte is more rooted

By contrast

Johnson 452000 (271000)
Sedgwick 382000 (168000)

[DINGO Joe]

Someone ran the stats on Twitter, and for all the doubters out there even if Kobach performed as badly in 2020 as he did in 2018 in the KC/urban eastern KS counties he would still win if he performed at generic R rural numbers, which oc he will with Trump on the ballot and in a federal race (he'll also likely improve compared to his 2018 performance in KC with higher GOP turnout and a federal race where people vote more partisanly). Safe R at this point in time tbh, Kobach +6 or something.

Yeah, I'd have to see the math on that theory to believe it.

[DINGO Joe]

Hamilton "scammed" my very conservative Grandma over a toilet flap. She has informed she will NOT be voting for him.

Flapgate

[DINGO Joe]

God, Peter Thiel is a turd.