Hurricane Michael thread: (Updates, commentary)

[DINGO Joe]

It's a small storm and it's got the potential to bomb out (rapidly intensify).  It won't bring the storm surge like Florence nor the flooding because it's moving too fast.  However, if your near landfall, the wind damage could be substantial.  I'm gonna be that guy and say it reaches 140.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, it really did bomb out.  Centeral American gyre storms are supposed to be able to do that.  Glad it didn't come to New Orleans.  Hard enough to get out of the city when you see it coming 4 or 5 days ahead, but a late bloomer like this, no chance.

[DINGO Joe]

The storm is officially down to category 1 intensity, about 85 MPH.

How much rain is it dropping

It's moving pretty fast and isn't a huge storm, so with isolated exceptions  that won't be a problem.

[DINGO Joe]

The storm is officially down to category 1 intensity, about 85 MPH.

How much rain is it dropping

It's moving pretty fast and isn't a huge storm, so with isolated exceptions  that won't be a problem.

The main problem with the storm in GA is the downed trees, and I mean they're up there. It's really bad. Tornadoes too.

Also, post assessment might reveal that it was a Cat. 5. It's a real possibility.

Once Michael moved inland it cut across many rural counties with very high rates of mobile homes.  So wind and damage from fallen trees will probably be substantial.  Lots of poor and out of the way places that people don't generally get to and have been losing population for some time now.  Probably will hasten that decline.

[DINGO Joe]

Mobile home is a pretty varied term and the quality of said homes can vary quite a bit.  Some you can't even tell their a mobile home, others you can't believe people can actually survive a 10 mph wind.  I'm taking a fairly educated guess that there's a swath of mobile homes that have never faced such a challenge and probably were of lower quality to begin with.  It's not uncommon for some of these FLA, AL, GA counties to have 20-30% of the housing classified as mobile homes.

[DINGO Joe]

Nice overview of the damage from Tallahassee to (but not including Panama City).  Shows many inland rural areas took a beating too.

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/hurricane/2018/10/14/hurricane-michael-arc-ruin-trail-destruction-florida-panhandle-big-bend/1614787002/