I could see a third party emerge that is not just about Conservatism, but also non-Interventionism in foreign policy along with opposition to government surveillance.
Yes, it's called the Libertarian party...
and same answer as usual, only if some bellweather candidate of the Evangelical right is willing to risk their career and do it, Pat Buchanan tried and failed miserably in 2000. Huckabee, Santorum, Palin or such would need to bolt, and get endorsements on top of that, then put up a George Wallace 68 level showing to matter, very unlikely, few politicians have the guts to leave the GOP when they still have something left in the tank.
