Democrats most important states

[TomC]

Your basic premise is fair enough, except to call them GOP-leaning is a bit biased. Dems have won Iowa 3/4 of the last elections, Penn and Wisc 4 out of the last 4, and Ohio 2 out of 4. I could agree Ohio is Rep leaning but not the other three.

Plus, they all four currently have Dem governors.

[TomC]

For the Dems to really break out and move beyond the basic map of the last two elections, they need to improve in one or more of these three geographic areas:

Ohio-WV-Va- Virginia is a tough one but trending towards the Dems, WV should be going Dem but is trending GOP, along with the rest of the South. WV was really the last hold out.

Ia-Mo-Ark- Missouri and Iowa should be able to tilt Dem if all else is equal, but Arkansas is much tougher, especially if the nominee is from outside the South. The 64 million dollar question is: Is Hillary from the South?

Colo-NM-Nev- Here, I'd include Arizona if McCain is not the nominee. To me, this is the natural area of the three for the Dems to really work, based on demographic changes.

So, the above map implies the Dems are trying to hold on to states they've been winning, plus pick up Ohio. In terms of states to work, they need to really pick one or more of the areas I've listed and push South or West.