What happens if Santorum wins Ohio?

[TomC]

To me it's a question of regions. Romney's got the northeast and west (and florida), Santorum's got the midwest, Gingrich has the South. So, what we still don't know is: what happens in rust belt states (where there's no "home state" claim) and what happens in the South if Gingrich bows out or slides into nothingness (Georgia excluded)?

So Santorum needs not only Ohio, but wins in the South as well- then each has two regions they can win. Washington would be a nice coup for either- Romney because Santorum should have an advantage with heavy so cons and Santorum because it is out of the two regions where he should do the best.

The only real path for Santorum I see is to deny Mitt a majority and force a brokered convention (and get Gingrich's vocal support).

If Santorum loses Ohio, or Gingrich wins Southern states in addition to Georgia, I don't see how he stops Romney at all.

[TomC]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

No, it's more must win for Rick.

[TomC]

OH isn't Rick's most important state on Super Tuesday. GA is the most important. If he can knock Newt out of the race, then he can finally go one on one with Romney. A OH win would be icing on the cake.

Maybe, though I doubt that Santorum will win GA. But OH is must-win, I think, for Romney.

No, it's more must win for Rick.

If Romney loses Ohio, one of the biggest swing states in the country, he's going to be right back where he was before winning Michigan last night. Only worse, since it will be the third time he has failed to leverage a major primary victory into uncontested front-runner status.

Romney may be back where he was perceptions-wise, but he'll still have a good delegate lead.