Florida

[Flying Dog]

please comment

[emergingDmajority1]

It'll go to Bush by 4-6 points.

The Dems need to forget Florida. Let's roll up our sleeves and get to work in Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas. We can win those states with the right candidate!

[Demrepdan]

My prediction is that Bush will win Florida thanks to his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush's, strong campaiging. But it may still be close. I'd say Florida will be between 52% and 54% for President Bush in 2004.

[jravnsbo]

Florida will go for BUsh.  Jeb won in  landslide after an all out assault.  Plus Bush just delivered on Presc drugs to seniors as he promised.  Plus Lieberman will not be on the ticket to garner Jewish vote and Bush has been fighting terrorism and supportive of protecting Israel.

I just don't see TN being in play, it will go for GOP.  If it didn't go for GOre in 200 a fav soon whya  nother Dem.  Yes Dems won a house race and Gov in 2002 , but both of those Dems ran as conservatives.  Same thing in LA and AR, dems may win some races but as conservative Dems, not like a liberal Dem, like Dean.

[DarthKosh]

It'll go to Bush by 4-6 points.

The Dems need to forget Florida. Let's roll up our sleeves and get to work in Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas. We can win those states with the right candidate!

If Dean is the nom then you can forget about those states too.

[Demrepdan]

Jeb won in  landslide after an all out assault.  .

Jeb didn't win by a landslide. He won by 56% of the vote. 55% is considered a "safe seat" or "solid win".

We had discussion of what constitutes a landslide vitory in another thread. I said that 60% is a landslide victory, others thought 66% to be more of a landslide victory.  

But at any rate, 56% of the popular vote is not a landslide victory.

[DarthKosh]

Jeb won in  landslide after an all out assault.  .

Jeb didn't win by a landslide. He won by 56% of the vote. 55% is considered a "safe seat" or "solid win".

We had discussion of what constitutes a landslide vitory in another thread. I said that 60% is a landslide victory, others thought 66% to be more of a landslide victory.  

But at any rate, 56% of the popular vote is not a landslide victory.

13 percent is a landslide.

[Paul]

Landslide or not, the win was pretty impressive.  The DNC didn't make it a secret that they were gunning for Jeb and trying to make a point in Florida.
I do have a question for any Floridians: I know that in '02 the voters also passed a proposition to drastically increase education funding.  How is J. Bush (who was against this) dealing with the fiscal reality?

[emergingDmajority1]

Gephardt/Edwards can deliver Missouri, though it may be very close

Gephardt/Clark could deliver Missouri and Arkansas. That may be enough.

from what I hear, most seniors aren't even happy with the drug bill that was passed.

[Flying Dog]

a lot of seniors are quiting the AARP

[DarthKosh]

a lot of seniors are quiting the AARP

Sure they are.

[zorkpolitics]

Bush should win FL, by a close but comfortable margin of 3-6%.  Reasons it will be different from 2000:
1)  The ongoing, and I assume successful effort, by the GOP to register 3 Million new Republicans in the 20 closest states, expect >100,000 in FL
2) Recent polls show Bush with 20% margin over all Democratic candidates (I assume that gap will decrease once a nominee is known)
3)  Traditional Southern support for a war time President
4) A northern liberal on the Democratic ticket (I assume Dean) will decrease the traditional conservative Democratic vote

On the other hand the democrats will have:  
1)  Better voting systems so that the more error prone democrats votes will count
2) Voter registration in minority precincts and colleges
3) Soros et al $100+ million to defeat Bush
4) The America Coming Together, 17 battle ground state (including FL) effort to register enough democrats to defeat Bush, has already raised >$25 Million

[DarthKosh]

Bush should win FL, by a close but comfortable margin of 3-6%.  Reasons it will be different from 2000:
1)  The ongoing, and I assume successful effort, by the GOP to register 3 Million new Republicans in the 20 closest states, expect >100,000 in FL
2) Recent polls show Bush with 20% margin over all Democratic candidates (I assume that gap will decrease once a nominee is known)
3)  Traditional Southern support for a war time President
4) A northern liberal on the Democratic ticket (I assume Dean) will decrease the traditional conservative Democratic vote

On the other hand the democrats will have:  
1)  Better voting systems so that the more error prone democrats votes will count
2) Voter registration in minority precincts and colleges
3) Soros et al $100+ million to defeat Bush
4) The America Coming Together, 17 battle ground state (including FL) effort to register enough democrats to defeat Bush, has already raised >$25 Million

The most important thing the Reps have that hey didn't in 200 is a well organized and funded GOTV effort.

[emergingDmajority1]

I think it will all cancel out, fundraising, GOTV efforts on both sides, propaganda, attack ads etc.

It's going to be close like 2000, assuming Dean doesn't win the nomination.

[jravnsbo]

Well landslide as you define it wouldn't be how I would as Jeb was targeting i think stupidly by McAuliffe ( TY GOD for him from GOP perspective!) as he used resources there instead of defending the Senate.  Any event Florida stays Bush country.

I don't think Graham could save it for Dems either.  As he increased his criticism of Bush, his own poll numbers dropped in FL to an all time low.

--Since a Florida page, how about Senate race here, what does everyone think?  GOP field is wide open, but have good candidates esp if Mel Martinez runs for GOP.  Dems have 3: Penallas (Hispanic mayor of Miami) and Rep Deutsch (Jewish vote) and Castor ( lady and ed dir for fl formerly).  The 2 guys HATE each other and are regional in the states.  It looks like if DEm are smart they will nom Castor, and GOP benefits by either of the other 2 winning the nomination.

Gephardt has not run statewide in MO before.  While it would be harder to win that state with him on a ticket, also weighing the other way is Gov Holden (D).  he is terribly unpopular and will have a strong primary challenge I hear.

[StevenNick]

Bush should win FL, by a close but comfortable margin of 3-6%.  Reasons it will be different from 2000:
1)  The ongoing, and I assume successful effort, by the GOP to register 3 Million new Republicans in the 20 closest states, expect >100,000 in FL
2) Recent polls show Bush with 20% margin over all Democratic candidates (I assume that gap will decrease once a nominee is known)
3)  Traditional Southern support for a war time President
4) A northern liberal on the Democratic ticket (I assume Dean) will decrease the traditional conservative Democratic vote

On the other hand the democrats will have:  
1)  Better voting systems so that the more error prone democrats votes will count
2) Voter registration in minority precincts and colleges
3) Soros et al $100+ million to defeat Bush
4) The America Coming Together, 17 battle ground state (including FL) effort to register enough democrats to defeat Bush, has already raised >$25 Million

Bush will win by a 10 or 15 point margin.  I think you assume erroneously that the margin in Florida will close with as a nominee becomes apparent.  I think the opposite.  "The Democrat" always scores better in polls than a specific candidate.  Although the margin may close a little around the time of the Dem convention in July 2004, ultimately the margin of victory is going to be wide.  The more people see of Howard Dean (I'm presuming Dean will be the nominee) the less they're going to like him.

Also, Florida has trended increasingly Republican since 2000.  In 2002, Republicans made gains in both state house and in the congressional races.  And of course Jeb won a LANDSLIDE reelection (Anything above a ten point victory is a landslide in my book.  6-10 is comfortable).

Florida isn't on the table.  It's solid Bush country.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It'll go to Bush by 4-6 points.

The Dems need to forget Florida. Let's roll up our sleeves and get to work in Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas. We can win those states with the right candidate!

Agreed

[emergingDmajority1]

10,000 quit AARP over Medicare bill

http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/4236143.html

10-15,000 quit

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/health/2668068/detail.html

hopefully this gets the ball rolling

[DarthKosh]

10,000 quit AARP over Medicare bill

http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/4236143.html

10-15,000 quit

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/health/2668068/detail.html

hopefully this gets the ball rolling

Those numbers are wrong and problely less then one percent of that.

[emergingDmajority1]

no it's fact, there is a backlash. though it's not a huge backlash........yet.

i see in my own family, grandparents are not happy with this.

[jravnsbo]

funny how the AARP has always supported the same programs and Dems have embraced them with open arms when they were passing the bills.  Now that the GOP passes medicare with presc drugs AARP is suddenly evil and the Dems immediately criticize thema nd push them to the side and tear up their membership cards.

[John]

bush will win 53 to 40 over Dean & Going on win a 2nd Term in office

[DarthKosh]

funny how the AARP has always supported the same programs and Dems have embraced them with open arms when they were passing the bills.  Now that the GOP passes medicare with presc drugs AARP is suddenly evil and the Dems immediately criticize thema nd push them to the side and tear up their membership cards.

Fair weather friends.

[Nym90]

If Bush will win 53 to 40, then who gets the other 7 percent? I highly doubt the Greens would get that kind of vote, especially if Dean is the nominee...are you predicting someone else to run as an independent who will do reasonably well?

[Flying Dog]

10,000 quit AARP over Medicare bill

http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/4236143.html

10-15,000 quit

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/health/2668068/detail.html

hopefully this gets the ball rolling

WOW!!!! I looked at the newspaper last week and it was only 2,000 people quiting.  But in one week, 10,000!! my grandma is not renewing her membership