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March 28, 2024, 05:12:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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 71 
 on: Today at 04:24:28 PM 
Started by EastAnglianLefty - Last post by Progressive Pessimist
I have no idea how you reconcile that with the Alabama and Louisiana decisions.

Because it's Florida.

 72 
 on: Today at 04:24:10 PM 
Started by Arizona Iced Tea - Last post by Badger



Appropriate attire for a highly qualified and super serious mayor giving an interview to national TV during his city's hour of crisis.

Wow. Why so triggered?  Huh

The same attire that is worn by people that make Baltimore one of the most dangerous cities in the country isn't a good look honestly and plays into the stereotypes that he is "one of them".

Oh, right.

 73 
 on: Today at 04:23:43 PM 
Started by TDAS04 - Last post by Progressive Pessimist
Lean freedom fighter.

 74 
 on: Today at 04:22:48 PM 
Started by Meclazine for Israel - Last post by Battista Minola 1616
I had already used that a couple years ago. The most famous person born in my city is of course actor Giancarlo Giannini, who in the meantime has received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

 75 
 on: Today at 04:22:07 PM 
Started by GAinDC - Last post by GAinDC
No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

Good point about Kemp's performance.

The 2022 results look very good for Republicans, but if you peek under the hood, it's clear Trump will not be able to win a lot of the voters who helped pad Kemp and Raffepsperger's margins

I think there’s a chance he might be able to replicate Kemp’s 2018 margin.

That would require Trump gaining ground in several large, urban/suburban counties that swung heavily away from the Republicans beginning in 2016. Not sure how he reverses that trend when he is the reason for the trend!





 76 
 on: Today at 04:20:56 PM 
Started by wbrocks67 - Last post by Progressive Pessimist
This is why the 2022 midterms were so enlightening for me. Democrats rebounded bigly in major swing states that will have implications for this year's elections.

 77 
 on: Today at 04:20:10 PM 
Started by Arizona Iced Tea - Last post by Fmr. Gov. NickG

The same attire that is worn by people that make Baltimore one of the most dangerous cities in the country isn't a good look honestly and plays into the stereotypes that he is "one of them". He should show some class and wear at least business casual.

I didn't realize George Zimmerman was a frequent poster on this board.

 78 
 on: Today at 04:19:59 PM 
Started by GeneralMacArthur - Last post by GeneralMacArthur
For a couple months now, we've been hearing that a famine in Gaza is "impending" or "imminent" or that Gaza is "teetering on the verge" of famine or some variation of this.

We have also seen the Biden Administration / liberal consensus, which tries to appease the base without abandoning Israel, become "Israel should defeat Hamas, but they've handled the war terribly and in particular they need to do way better on aid and let way more aid in."

I've also noticed that the "Genocide Joe" crowd have switched their claim from:
"Israel is committing a genocide by slaughtering Palestinians en masse"
to
"Israel is committing a genocide by starving the Palestinians to death"
largely because, as I have noted elsewhere, there has been a sharp decline in Gaza deaths, to the point where as of March 28 the number is about 32,000 but it passed 30,000 in February, so we are now averaging well below 100 deaths/day, whereas at the beginning of the conflict it was close to 500/day.  This is putting aside the fact that the methodology for counting/reporting deaths has changed as the war has progressed and now most death counts are based on hearsay rather than actual casualty reports.

All of this begs the question, is there actually an aid crisis / impending famine in Gaza?

Now as I wrote a week ago, the most reliable poll we have from Gaza shows that 96% of Palestinians have access to food/water.  But this didn't convince many people, because it's just a poll -- that's soft data, anyone can dismiss it by just deciding the methodology must have been wrong.  That is after all Atlas's favorite habit.

I've long said that I would like more hard data from this war, and today I discovered that hard data on aid does exist -- from, of all sources, the UNRWA.  Today, for instance, 206 trucks of aid entered Gaza.

I was going to do the math on this, but a Reddit post beat me to it, so I will summarize here.

The UNWRA source above says 11944/17839 trucks that have gone into Gaza have been food trucks, or about 67%.

The United Nations says that every food truck is 20 tons of food.

Let's say Gaza is getting around 200 trucks per day, 67% of them being 20-ton food trucks.  So that is (200 * 20 * 0.67) = 2,680 tons of food per day.  The most recent estimated population of the Gaza Strip was 2,375,259 people.  So that averages out to (2,000 * 2,680 / 2,375,259) = 2.25lbs of food aid per person per day.

Is that enough?  Well, we have to take a closer look at what the food is.  The World Food Programme breaks it down into 32% flour, 21% frozen meat as the top two items.  Let's say that's 0.72lbs flour, 0.5lbs meat per person.  I asked Google for some calculations and got that this is about 1,200 calories of flour and about 250 calories of meat (I put in lamb).  So even at only half of the aid accounted for, we're already at nearly 1,500 calories per person.

What to make of this?

Well, you guys probably know what I'm going to say.  The narrative that Israel is starving the Palestinians is totally false, and the narrative that Israel needs to "do more to get aid into Gaza" is just a cheap shot people are using so they can criticize Israel without criticizing the war on Hamas.  These work because nobody is actually looking at the facts.  If you do look at the facts and do the math, based on figures provided by the U.N. itself, you see that actually, at its current rate, Israel is providing a sufficient amount of food to the Gazans.

Which makes sense, because we've been hearing for months now that Gaza will enter famine any day now, yet the Gazans themselves report that they're fine on food/water access, and every piece of footage we see of Gaza backs this up as the Gazans don't ever seem malnourished.

It's all well and good to lie about Israel/Gaza.  I mean, we all hate Israel, what's a few lies here and there if it's all for a good cause?  Certainly Israel is no stranger to lying.

But as a popular TV show from the Trump administration put it... every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth, and inevitably, that debt is paid.  Lying about Israel having a diabolical plan to intentionally starve the Gazans creates the false impression that Israel is culpable in a Holodomor-style genocide, when Israel is not.  This is our debt to the truth.  And it will be paid in November, when millions of young people talk each other out of voting for Joe Biden because they were fooled by our lies into believing that he allowed a genocide to take place, resulting in the return to office of President Donald J. Trump.

 79 
 on: Today at 04:19:37 PM 
Started by GAinDC - Last post by Progressive Pessimist
Absolutely not.

 80 
 on: Today at 04:19:24 PM 
Started by Hnv1 - Last post by Horus
Israel violating UN resolution by dropping bombs on Rafah.



No more weapons.

Unless the US has a way to get the hostages back, cutting off Israel won't stop the war, it will only escalate it. Biden knows this.

What's your logic here?

There isn't any. As I've said many times now, what we're seeing from the militantly pro Israel faction is the equivalent of a small child throwing an enormous tantrum when they do not get their way. Only this child has nukes.

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