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June 23, 2021, 03:16:38 PM
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 on: Today at 02:45:27 PM 
Started by Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon - Last post by MR. GERGELY KARÁCSONY
I also nominate myself for speaker

 on: Today at 02:44:53 PM 
Started by The End to the Epic - Last post by Motorcity
I don't know.  I think presidents need to be more open about their faith and actually attend church, but Trump did not go to the church to pray or make a statement calling for unity (as we're all God's children).  That was not the time for a political stunt, and I really don't like the Bible being used as one.

I can't vote for Biden because of abortion, but I'm starting to question whether I can vote for Trump again (that's not to say that I've come to the conclusion that I can't, because I still don't know).  I suspect that similar thoughts are going through the minds of a lot of Christians right now, especially those who only mildly supported Trump to begin with.
The irony is Biden is easily the most religious president since Carter. Other than Carter, the most religious since Coolidge. That is a 100 year time span!

Also, Biden is on record saying he is personally pro-life and would try to talk someone out of an abortion, but ultimatly its the woman's choice. Obama or Hillary would never say that. I don't think any mainstream Democrat would say that unless you were a southern governor like JBE

Trump on the other hand is a known adulter and paid hush money to a porn star. And has run casinos and lusted for his daughter. Even if you are willing to ignore his personal sins for the overall movment, no one can deny he has done great damage to the evangilical movment by turning off suburban women in Atlanta or Charlotte or Phonix or Dallas aka the Bible Belt
And the Republicans haven't nominated a Christian since 2008. Meanwhile all Democratic candidates in that time frame are quite outspokenly Christian.
Its debatable

McCain said he was a baptist but most people who knew him would call him non-religious.

Romney was a devout morman and called himself a christen. I guess most people consider mormans christan but some don't

 on: Today at 02:44:44 PM 
Started by TDAS04 - Last post by CentristRepublican
Again, Warren said she is running for Reelection in 2024/ not for Prez, she doesn't want to vacate her seat

She can 'change her mind', just like Obama (he promised he wouldn't run for president in 2008), and Rubio (he promised he wouldn't run in 2016 for reelection to the senate), and win (Obama and Rubio won their respective races).

 on: Today at 02:44:41 PM 
Started by Virginiá - Last post by SnowLabrador
My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

 on: Today at 02:44:10 PM 
Started by parochial boy - Last post by Hash
Time for a proper analysis of the results, not some lazy stuff, and a preview of the runoffs based on alliances concluded or not.

Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-Libres-LC-LMR)* 43.85%
Fabienne Grébert (EELV-Gs-GE-PP-ND-MdP) 14.47%
Andréa Kotarac (RN-PL) 12.32%
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ) 11.42%
Bruno Bonnell (LREM-MoDem-Agir-MR-TdP) 9.82%
Cécile Cukierman (PCF-LFI-E!) 5.57%
Chantal Gomez (LO) 1.56%
Shella Gil (Oth.) 0.65%
Farid Omeir (UDMF) 0.33%
Abstention 67.41%

Wauquiez absolutely dominated and is on track to sail to a very comfortable reelection in the second round, even if the three left-wing lists have merged behind Grébert (EELV). Their combined result, just 31%, still places them over 10 points behind Wauquiez. Bonnell fell flat on his face, placing below the 10% threshold, while the RN's result is very bad, down from 25.5% in 2015. Even though turnout is down a ton from 2015.

Wauquiez won every single department. He absolutely dominated with ridiculous margins in Auvergne, particularly his native stronghold of Haute-Loire, where he won no less than 67.7% (he won 66.1% in Cantal and nearly 55% in Allier). His weakest result was Isère, where he won a bit less than 35% as Grébert won in the green stronghold of Grenoble.

Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PCF-PRG)* 26.52%
Julien Odoul (RN) 23.19%
Gilles Platret (LR-UDI-DLF-Libres-LC-LMR-MEI) 21.04%
Denis Thuriot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 11.69%
Stéphanie Modde (EELV-GE-CÉ) 10.34%
Bastien Faudot (GRS-LFI-ND-PP-E!-Gs) 4.5%
Claire Rocher (LO) 2.73%
Abstention 65.13%

With an incumbent boost, PS regional president Marie-Guite Dufay - president of Franche-Comté since 2018 and surprise winner of a three-way race in 2015 - is favoured to win reelection, and probably more comfortably than in 2015. Her list has merged uneventfully with the EELV list, which won just over 10%, which combines to over 36% - far ahead of the three other lists qualified. Julien Odoul, the RN's young moron who enjoys making distasteful 'jokes' about farmers' suicide, is down over 8% from the far-right's result in 2015, although he is still in second position ahead of LR.

Dufay is ahead in all the departments of the old Franche-Comté plus the Côte-d'Or (Dijon). Odoul won the Yonne with 30.2%, Gilles Platret, the very right-wing mayor of Chalon-sur-Saône, won his department with 28.7% while Denis Thuriot, the ex-PS LREM mayor of Nevers (Nièvre) won his department with 25.4% - taking over 37% in Nevers.

Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS-PCF-PRG-MR-CÉ-PLB!)* 20.95%
Isabelle Le Callennec (LR-LC-Libres-LMR) 16.27%
Thierry Burlot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-UDI-TdP-Volt) 15.53%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (EELV-UDB-GE-ND-Gs-BÉ-LRDG) 14.84%
Gilles Pennelle (RN) 14.27%
Daniel Cueff (Ecolo) 6.52%
Pierre-Yves Cadalen (LFI) 5.57%
Valérie Hamon (LO) 2.26%
Joannic Martin (PB) 1.55%
David Cabas (DLF) 1.4%
Christophe Daviet (Oth.) 0.49%
Yves Chauvel (EXD) 0.22%
Kamel Elahiar (UDMF) 0.12%
Abstention 64.21%

So Brittany may be one of the more interesting regions to follow in the runoff (after very uneventful elections in 2010 and 2015) as incumbent PS president Loïg Chesnais-Girard - who took over from Jean-Yves Le Drian in 2017 - is the exception to the rule of incumbents overperforming. He won a very weak 21%, an anemic result which likely has much to do with his low name recognition/personal notoriety, particularly in comparison to a dominant figure like Le Drian, his former mentor. It also has to do with some stiff competition from a former ally - and another former Le Drian disciple - Thierry Burlot, who was regional vice president responsible for the environment until just some months ago (until he was fired by Chesnais-Girard upon confirming his macronista list) and won 15.5%, LREM's second-best result in metropolitan France.

Chesnais-Girard announced an alliance (merger) with the independent list led by Daniel Cueff, former mayor of Langouet (Ille-et-Vilaine) famous for his anti-pesticides decrees, which won 6.5%. Cueff had previously been a regional councillor between 2010 and 2015 in Le Drian's majority, part of a small party called Bretagne Écologie founded by Green/EELV dissidents who wanted to ally with Le Drian/PS from the first round in 2010. However, given that Cueff campaigned as an independent opposed to deals with the political establishment, his deal with the PS is decried as a betrayal by some of his allies like Anne Quéméré (a famous sailor) and Olivier Roellinger (Cancale chef). On the other hand, alliances with Burlot - as Le Drian had pleaded for before the elections - and Desmares-Poirrier were rejected (relations between the PS and EELV at the regional level have been bad since 2010), so both of them will maintain their lists in the second, creating a messy five-way runoff -- opening the possibility for a regional council with no one holding an absolute majority, even with the majority bonus, if the winner gets less than 33%. Chesnais-Girard should be the narrow favourite, but the outcome is still quite unpredictable and could be messy.

Chesnais-Girard won all four departments of the region. Burlot did best in the Côtes-d'Armor (17.7%), particularly strong around his political base of Pléguien. Isabelle Le Callenec, LR mayor of Vitré (Ille-et-Vilaine) won nearly 41% in Vitré and won much of eastern Ille-et-Vilaine, historically one of the most conservative regions of western France. Desmares-Poirrier placed first in Rennes.

Centre-Val de Loire
François Bonneau (PS-PCF-PRG-MR)* 24.81%
Aleksandar Nikolic (RN-CNIP) 22.24%
Nicolas Forissier   (LR-UDI-LMR) 18.82%
Marc Fesneau (MoDem-LREM-Agir-LC-TdP) 16.65%
Charles Fournier (EELV-LFI-Gs-E!-ND-GE-LRDG) 10.85%
Jérémy Clément (Ecolo) 4.07%
Farida Megdoud   (LO) 2.56%
Abstention 67.26%

Although Bonneau's result is weak as incumbent, with the alliance (merger) with the EELV-LFI list, he's the (narrow) favourite to win reelection in the four-way runoff, particularly as speculation around a possible LR/LREM merger to defeat the left ended nowhere, as LR wanted the macronista list to withdraw rather than merge with them. The region was also macronismo's best region in the country, owing a lot to Fesneau's political base in the Loir-et-Cher (he was mayor of the small town of Marenchoir) as well as Philippe Vigier (ex-UDI deputy for Eure-et-Loir since 2007, and the right's candidate in the region in 2015) leading the list in Eure-et-Loir, where he has a strong personal vote in his constituency. As for the RN, with their numbers down over 8% from 2015, and at just 22%, their hopes of squeaking through in a four-way runoff are dead.

Once again the results show a strong personal vote effect here too: Bonneau won the Loiret, Cher and Indre-et-Loire (in good part thanks to Orléans, Bourges and Tours), while Forissier - LR deputy for the Indre and former mayor of La Châtre - won the Indre. Fesneau won the Loir-et-Cher, while Nikolic won the Eure-et-Loir.

Gilles Simeoni (FaC)* 29.19%
Laurent Marcangeli (LR-UDI-CCB) 24.86%
Jean-Christophe Angelini (PNC) 13.22%
Paul-Félix Benedetti (Rinnovu) 8.39%
Jean-Guy Talamoni (CL) 6.9%
Jean-Charles Orsucci (LREM-TdP) 5.92%
François Filoni (RN) 4%
Agnès Simonpietri (EELV-GE-Gs-ND) 3.75%
Michel Stefani (PCF) 3.18%
Jean-Antoine Giacomi   (EXD) 0.59%
Abstention 42.92%

Despite the divisions of the nationalist majority, the nationalist vote remains dominant and Simeoni - again despite the loss of his two prominent allies, Angelini and Talamoni - placed first, beating the right-wing (Bonapartist, yes, that's correct!) mayor of Ajaccio, Laurent Marcangeli. Together, the nationalist vote amounts to 57.7%, even more than in 2017, which was already an historic victory for them. The right, united for the first time in a long time, remains just as weak as in 2015 and 2017. The non-nationalist left, for the second time in a row, will remain excluded from the island's assembly, with their two lists winning less than 4% of the vote each. Meanwhile, Corsican macronismo will be eliminated from the assembly. The other big thing is that Benedetti's radical left-wing separatist Rinnovu/Core in Fronte, with 8.4%, not only qualifies for the runoff (the insular threshold is 7%, not 10%) but also finishes ahead of Talamoni's Corsica Libera, which ended below the 7% threshold.

... and yes, you read that right, Corsica had over 57% turnout. They really do their own thing there: but it isn't surprising - the Corsican Assembly is a more important and relevant institution to the island's political life than the regional councils are in any other region, and Corsican politics is still very much parochial (literally insular) and interest is higher in local/regional matters than national politics.

Angelini and Talamoni have merged their lists, although Talamoni himself won't appear on it, which sets up a four-way runoff in which Simeoni likely remains the narrow favourite. The Corsican majority bonus is only 11 out of 63 seats, less than the 25% bonus elsewhere, meaning that here as well there's a possibility of an assembly without any absolute majority, even though the nationalists - divided in three (with one separatist faction unlikely to ally with the other two) - will retain an absolute majority.

Simeoni won nearly 35% in Haute-Corse (over 40% in Bastia, his stronghold) while Marcangeli won 29.9% in Corse-du-Sud (nearly 40% in Ajaccio) against 22.9% for Simeoni. Local results still reveal the overwhelming importance and influence of local political clans and the 'mayors effect' (mayors or their group appearing on the list of candidates).

Grand Est
Jean Rottner (LR-UDI-LC-MR-LMR)* 31.15%
Laurent Jacobelli (RN-CNIP) 21.12%
Éliane Romani (EELV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GE-MdP-ND) 14.6%
Brigitte Klinkert (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 10.77%
Aurélie Filippetti   (Gs-LFI-PRG-PP) 8.64%
Florian Philippot   (LP) 6.95%
Martin Meyer (Unser Land) 3.67%
Louise Fève (LO) 2.6%
Adil Tyane (UDMF) 0.49%
Abstention 70.39%

Courtesy of record-high abstention and the far-right taking a hit, Rottner ultimately shouldn't have too much trouble winning reelection. The RN is down 15% from 2015, when it was led by Florian Philippot (who famously left the FN a few years ago). As for Philippot, after the brutal defeat in the EP elections in 2019, his result - nearly 7% on an anti-lockdown/anti-mask/soft anti-vaxx rhetoric, is quite impressive and clearly ate into the RN's electorate, seeing as how Philippot's vote is not really regionally-concentrated (as a RN apparatchik, he famously tried - and failed, hard - to carve himself a personal stronghold in Forbach). On the left, a EELV-PS list clearly beat out a LFI-Gs list led by former PS deputy/former culture minister Aurélie Filippetti. Junior minister Brigitte Klinkert - former right-wing president of the Haut-Rhin departmental council - narrowly qualified for the runoff, with 10.8%. The Alsatian regionalist party Unser Land which, like in 2015, campaigned against the 'Grand Est' megaregion and for Alsace to be a separate region with a special status, won 3.7% regionally and 9.4% in Alsace, slightly less than in 2015.

The runoff will be between the top four lists. Rottner quickly killed speculation of an alliance with LREM and Klinkert has maintained her list after briefly hesitating. Negotiations between Romani and Filippetti failed, so Filippetti's list will not merge with the qualified left-wing list - relations between the two were perhaps soured by Romani having refused to choose hypothetically between Panzergirl and Mélenchon.

Rottner won every department, even traditional far-right hotbeds in Champagne-Ardenne like Haute-Marne. Klinkert did very well in and around her base of Colmar (Haut-Rhin) - in the Haut-Rhin she won around 24.5%, narrowly behind Rottner, and the map shows an interesting north/south divide in the department between the Colmar region and Mulhouse region (Rottner's base). In the concurrent departmental elections, Klinkert's ticket with Colmar mayor Éric Straumann (LR) in Colmar-2 won over 60% but failed to win in the first round because of low turnout.

Ary Chalus (GUSR/LREM)* 49.31%
Josette Borel-Lincertin (FGPS) 17.38%
Ronald Selbonne (ANG-UPLG) 9.39%
Max Mathiasin (PPDG/DVG) 5.56%
Sonia Petro (LR-UDI) 3.68%
Maxette Pirbakas (RN) 3.42%
Éric Coriolan (Oth.) 2.88%
Jean-Marie Nomertin (CO/LO) 2.67%
Alain Plaisir (Reg.) 2.54%
Christelle Nanor   (LGCA) 1.41%
Willy William (Oth.) 1.17%
Tony Delannay (DLF) 0.58%
Abstention 69.15%

Incumbent president Ary Chalus - from the local party GUSR, close to LREM and allied with the old local right - came extremely close to winning in the first round, despite being recently indicted for breach of trust, embezzlement and illegal financing of his 2015 campaign. He was held in custody on May 11. His closest rival is the PS president of the departmental council, Josette Borel-Lincertin, also recently indicted in a corruption scandal. The surprise came from the strong performance of regionalist candidate Ronald Selbonne with just under 10%. Deputy Max Mathiasin (caucuses with the MoDem), also recently indicted in a corruption scandal, won 5.56%.

Rodolphe Alexandre (GR/centrist)* 43.72%
Gabriel Serville (Péyi G-LFI-Gs) 27.67%
Jean-Paul Fereira (AGEG-PSG-GE-MDES-Walwari) 23.34%
Jessi Americain (DVG) 5.27%
Abstention 65.21%

Incumbent centrist president Rodolphe Alexandre, close to LREM, first elected in 2010, dominated the first round with 43.7% but will face an alliance of the three other (left-wing) lists in the second round. Deputy Gabriel Serville (caucuses with the GDR group) won 27.7%, and Jean-Paul Fereira, backed notably by Christiane Taubira, won 23.3%. Theoretically, the alliance of the three left-wing lists should be enough to win, but I know little.

 on: Today at 02:42:54 PM 
Started by KaiserDave - Last post by I'm a John Fetterman (or Malcolm Kenyatta) Democrat
Bloomberg News report that of the absentee ballots returned to the Board of Elections by Tuesday, 46% came from state Assembly districts that Adams won, followed by 31% from districts Garcia won.

Welp, it was a fun ride.

 on: Today at 02:42:47 PM 
Started by CentristRepublican - Last post by YE
Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz.

 on: Today at 02:42:30 PM 
Started by TDAS04 - Last post by CentristRepublican
Harris had to drop out last time because Gabbard of all people slapped her across the room during the debate. Warren would win this horrible matchup.

Except now Kamala is vice-president. (And Warren's no strong candidate; she finished third in Massachusetts.)

 on: Today at 02:41:55 PM 
Started by CentristRepublican - Last post by Collyridian
Cotton or Hawley.

 on: Today at 02:41:26 PM 
Started by Tekken_Guy - Last post by erwint.2021
Yes. Predominately Hispanic voters from Cuba and Venezuela. Blacks barely budged in Miami-Dade. Not only did Trump increase in raw-votes, Biden decreased compared to Clinton. A large share of Trump voters were Clinton and Obama voters.

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