Talk Elections

3 states already released (600 adults, polls conducted Jan. 20/21):

Alabama:

60% Approve
24% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=61adfc41-d836-464f-8186-f5a8bcb76249

California:

77% Approve
15% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=030afd67-3556-4a63-8e9a-442cb1e2b7f0

Iowa:

68% Approve
22% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ecb45028-93b8-4bc9-8e18-ef45914bd040

Rasmussen shows the following result today (nationally of course, 3-day tracker):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

States that were likely polled as well and will be released soon:

Kansas
Kentucky
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

Update:

Kansas

62% Approve
24% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d87c6dde-e886-458a-a13e-0fbe918d548f

Not pushing those leaners are we

Gallup notes today that many people who took sides during the Transition have moved into "Undecided"-mode in past cycles. Maybe we witness the same here.

Rasmussen's national tracking for example showed 98% of those polled having an opinion about Obama until a few days ago. Today it's just 93% ...

The real Alabama numbers are probably something like 62%/38%. Heh.

No Indiana numbers? I am sad.

The 15 states above are polled almost every month for Presidential, Senatorial and Gubernatorial Approval Ratings, but some states like Indiana, Pennsylvania etc. were only polled for the General Election ...

7% disapproval among Hispanics in California

Interesting.

There's probably a pretty significant Bradley Effect going on in Alabama. :P

Kentucky(:)) is out.

Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 25%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9c74442f-6013-401f-a949-7801bbecca36

Obama only received 69% of the Democrat vote in Kentucky, I wonder what it would've looked like with 83% instead.

So after two days on the job...

After two days on the job, 25 percent of Kentuckians already disapprove. Honeymoon over?

No, I'd say the honeymoon is over because the press is already giving him a hard time over something silly (not letting enough reporters/cameras in on that second swearing in).  :P

Massachusetts

Approve: 78%
Disapprove: 11%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=48501a4c-9bd7-480a-b19f-9102044921ed

Minnesota

Approve: 64%
Disapprove: 21%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c18d27f-7462-448c-88bf-939da8b31076

Uhh, about Minnesota, I'm not saying the actual results look out of place, but the numbers Obama got from the 18 - 34 age group kinda do...

SUSA has a ridiculously gigantic Republican bias in Minnesota for some reason.

I'm glad to hear that even states like Kentucky and Alabama support our President (and thus do not hate America or wish ill on our soldiers fighting overseas).

Interesting numbers.
I didn't know he has accomplished that much in less than a week. People should wait a bit before automatically loving him. If I had to guess, because he won't be able to make all of his promises, in one year, he will be around 55-60%.

Rasmussen has released polls for Texas and Tennessee:

Texas

62% approve (41% strongly) / 35% disapprove (19% strongly)

Tennessee

60% approve (39% strongly) / 35% disapprove (21% strongly)

 Link  (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/combined_states/hopes_for_obama_high_in_mccain_country)

Dave

What was the question they were asking? Perhaps "Do you approve of Obama swearing the oath?" I don't think that's about the only thing on which to judge him one way or the other at the moment...

Well, cabinet appointments and actions over the first two days, however few of them are.

Cabinet appointments is 90% what I'm going on, currently.

Of the two days Obama has been president so far, I really could not approve more. I was very worried that he'd start triangulating and backtracking right out of the gate; so far, it seems like he's sticking to his promises, and then some.

So far so good.

It should be noted that the TX and TN polls were taken Jan. 14, when Obama had a 65-33 rating nationally ...


Very True ...

The rest of the states that were released by SUSA:

Missouri: 65% Approve, 21% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=72913ec2-fb62-4950-ae14-9245ddae368b

New Mexico: 65% Approve, 22% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a6bfa544-a441-421d-966c-6e0e45ef34d0

New York: 78% Approve, 11% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3522e847-a0a9-4b4c-b115-8e8679b68b2e

Oregon: 68% Approve, 18% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66a5dc08-d9a2-4b34-b49a-12418ff87e3c

Virginia: 62% Approve, 23% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4ab3b8db-1579-46ff-93f5-48290a120ea1

Washington: 69% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=90c0da33-6856-4e0a-946f-438fe35bf976

Wisconsin: 70% Approve, 18% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=37e8eafa-5bd0-42c8-aee2-3802b511b4ef

The Minnesota numbers look fine to me (the subsamples don't but they're always way off due to the extreme MoE.) Obama's at about the max approval ANYONE can have in Minnesota due to polarization. Minnesota has so many hardcore left-wingers and hardcore right-wingers that the ceiling for approval for anyone is relatively low.

I couldn't agree more.  Closing Guantanamo and all secret prisons was an excellent first move.  What needs to be done now is prosecute those who were responsible for the atrocities that took place there.
Making healthcare reform a priority is another thing I approve of.
 

The One.

According to Gallup, Obama starts with a 68-12 approval rating (Jan. 21-23).

That's better than Clinton (58-20) and Bush (57-25) and comparable with Eisenhower (68-7), Kennedy (72-6) and Carter (66-8).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113962/Obama-Starts-Job-Approval.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113923/History-Foretells-Obama-First-Job-Approval-Rating.aspx

Not so good over at Rasmussen, however

Approve 61% (-1); strongly 44% (-1)

Disapprove 33% (+4); strongly 18% (+2)

 Link  (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_approval_index)

Dave

Very strong numbers in Virginia.  It's interesting to see him at 41-38 among conservatives, and 47-34 among Evangelicals.  The only group that disapproves of him are Republicans, and even then it's only a -13, with 25% unsure.  He's actually above 50% with most groups, which is a good sign.  I'm a little surprised he's the same with men and women, though.

Rasmussen (25-01-2009):

60% Approve (-1)
36% Disapprove (+3)

You're absolutely right.  Closing Guantanamo and allowing some already confirmed 60 or so terrorists back into their terrorist camps was a great idea.

Bravo Obama!  May he be President 4 Life!

You do realize that your heroes Hillary and McCain claim that they would also have closed it?

Already? Wow.

You're right, detaining people suspected of terrorism without a proper trial and making them live in horrible conditions is the way to go.

:)

I expected him to stay in the high 60s-low 70s for at least a month or longer.

Well, according to Gallup he's in better shape today:

69% Approve (+1)
13% Disapprove (+1)

Don't know really why there's such a big difference between the 2 institutes, but if SUSA showed Obama with a 60% approval rating in Alabama, I tend to trust Gallup more ...

Rasmussen has a bit of a Republican lean, we should remember.

They ask the question in a different manner too. Please don't start the hackfest already. kthanx

And they use a different weighting model which brings it closer to the center. We all know how hackish I can be and the whole "Rasmussen is a Republican pollster" crap annoys even ME.

or that it won't actually be closed for a year and that nobody will be released as a direct result of it's closing?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113968/Obama-Initial-Approval-Ratings-Historical-Context.aspx

By Party Affiliation

Democrats: Approve 88%; Disapprove 2%; No opinion 10% (+86)
Independents: Approve 62%; Disapprove 12%; No opinion 27% (+50)
Republicans: Approve 43%; Disapprove 30%; No opinion 27% (+13)

Other approvals:

Liberals 83%; Moderates 75%; Conservatives 52%

18-to-29 year olds 79%; Nonwhites 78%; Women 71%; Men 64%

Jan. 21-24 Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Dave

How the hell are a majority of cons approving of a lib?

Rasmussen, on the other hand, tells a different story. 17% of conservatives strongly approve; 38% strongly disapprove

Dave

Rasmussen (26-01-2009):

60% Approve (n/c)
37% Disapprove (+1)

Forty-six percent (46%) of women strongly approve along with 36% of men. Eighty-one percent (81%) of African-American voters Strongly Approve along with 37% of White voters. Among those who see the economy as the most important issue, 55% Strongly Approve.

At the same time, the President’s negatives have risen a bit since he assumed office and 20% now Strongly Disapprove of his performance. That stems largely from growing disapproval from conservatives. The higher negatives give Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +21, his lowest rating as President or President-elect since before Thanksgiving.

Dave

Latest Des Moines Register Iowa poll by Selzer & Co.:

68% Approve
12% Disapprove

Pretty similar to SUSA, allthough both Selzer and SUSA overestimated Obama in the GE ...

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090126/NEWS09/901260331/1056

Rasmussen (27-01-2009):

62% Approve (+2)
36% Disapprove (-1)

Among those who see the economy as the top issue, 55% Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. He also gets such upbeat ratings from 64% of those who view domestic issues as tops. Among national security voters, 19% Strongly Approve. Nineteen percent (19%) of cultural issue voters Strongly Approve as do 11% of fiscal policy voters.

Dave

Already? Wow.

;)

It`s about 65% right now if we average Rasmussen and Gallup and assign the Undecideds.

It`s probably not 70% because a few Conservatives who previously were undecided or mildly approving were scared away by Obama's abortion orders and big spending plans ...

West Virginia

Approve: 67%
Disapprove: doesn't say

http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=50464

Dunno how reliable this pollster is though. But apparently Manchin is mad popular.

Probably the same way that a majority of liberals and Democrats approved of Bush's job performance in the aftermath of 9/11.

But Obama hasn't even done anything major yet!

He identified all of his main advisors and the bulk of his Cabinet and helped shape the stimulus bill the House is about to pass.

Rasmussen:

63% Approve
36% Disapprove

Gallup:

66% Approve
17% Disapprove

FOX News:

65% Approve
16% Disapprove

Update:

Rasmussen:

62% Approve
36% Disapprove

Gallup:

65% Approve
20% Disapprove

CBS News:

62% Approve
15% Disapprove

Well, it's obvious that the Obama presidency has failed.
How long till the RNC puts up a clock ticking to his resignation?

Oh god, don't give them any ideas.

VA Obama Approval from Rasmussen (Feb. 4):

64% Approve (61% Nationally)
35% Disapprove (36% Nationally)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_february_4_2009

PRESIDENCY IN CRISIS; IS IT TOO SOON TO CALL OBAMA THE WORST PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY?

Huh, it appears the Republican party is out of touch with the American public.

Who would've thought?

Latest Illinois Obama Approval Rating by Rasmussen (Feb. 3):

73% Approve

Pat Quinn Approval:

80% Approve

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/illinois/64_of_illinois_voters_say_blagojevich_got_fair_trial

Rasmussen today:

59% Approve
39% Disapprove

"Today’s results mark the first time that Obama’s overall rating has fallen below 60% as either President-elect or President."

Just under three weeks...

()
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114202/Obama-Upper-Hand-Stimulus-Fight.aspx

Just under three weeks...

LOL Republicans.

Because we know those historically low approval ratings for the Democrats in Congress over the past two years really hurt them and prevented them from picking up eight seats in the Senate and plenty more in the House...

No. Bacause the Congressional Republicans approval ratings were even worse.

The other major party was considerably less popular though, so that isn't terribly relevant to the current situation.

And the Reoublicans aren't in power now. So, yes, for the time being, it doesn't help their electability argument but if Obama continues to slip and if the Dems in Congress remain unpopular, watch as the GOP ratings go up.

They are hanging it all on this stimulus. If it fails, heads will roll. The media will still push the narrative of Obama, though.

The same media where during the Stimulus debate the 2/3 of their guests were Republicans?
the same media where Michael Steele says that the Government has NEVER created jobs and Wolf Blitzer says nothing?

Yeah, totaly in the tank for Obama.

Obama is just about finished, guys. He's only at 76%. ;)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/09/poll.obama.stimulus/index.html

CNN Poll also shows that Obama is still overwhelmingly beloved, the public still hates Republicans and wants them to go away, and a majority still support the stimulus.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/another-poll-shows-public-approving-obama-disapproving-gop-on-stimulus.php


edit: aw... Eraserhead beat me.

It's okay, you provided a more detailed presentation. :)

On Rasmussen, he's back up to 60-38 and up to 66-21 in Gallup's daily tracking.

New Utah poll by Dan Jones out:

Obama's approval rating is @ 59%.

Among Utah Republicans, 45% approve of Obama and among young Utah voters, Obama's rating is @ 79%.

()

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=5564944

utah is going to be an interesting state to watch

Huh. Obama might yet win Utah in 2012 after all.

(provided he wins in a Reagan- or LBJ-esque fashion, before the Republicans jump down my throat)

Give us Kansas, Lief. Come on.

Latest numbers:

Florida (Strategic Vision)

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's overall job performance?

Approve 64%
Disapprove 25%
Undecided 11%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of the economy?

Approve 59%
Disapprove 26%
Undecided 15%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of the war in Iraq?

Approve 65%
Disapprove 19%
Undecided 16%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of the war on terrorism?

Approve 58%
Disapprove 23%
Undecided 19%

5. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's order to close the Guantanamo Bay prison housing terror suspects?

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%
Undecided 9%

The poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 6-8, 2009. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_021109.htm

Connecticut (Quinnipiac)

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's overall job performance?

Approve 69%
Disapprove 18%
Undecided 13%

From February 5 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,603 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1260

Ohio (Quinnipiac)

Approve 67%
Disapprove 16%
Undecided 17%

From January 29 - February 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,127 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1258

New Jersey (Quinnipiac)

Approve 65%
Disapprove 16%
Undecided 19%

From January 29 - February 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1256

New Pennsylvania numbers by Quinnipiac will be released tomorrow ...

It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:


()

Thx. For what it's worth, here's the latest NC Obama Approval Rating by Civitas:

60% Approve
6% Disapprove
34% Undecided

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/january-2009-monthly-poll

Brand-new McClatchy-Ipsos poll (they absolutely nailed the 2008 election with a 53-46 poll (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/story/55193.html)):

69% Approve (38% Strongly)
26% Disapprove (12% Strongly)

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/310/story/61991.html

anyone who has the audacity to disapprove of obama is a traitor

6%? LOL.

That goes too far --  way too far. I heard much the same about dissent with George W. Bush many times, and on some other Forums after I criticized the Great and Infallible Leader I occasionally saw suggestions that I find another country -- typically Iran, Cuba, or North Korea. 

Dissent with the President is not treachery. Insistence that dissent with the President is disloyalty to the Nation is in fact a repudiation of the principles upon which our Constitutional republic was founded.

Article 3, Section 3 of the Constitution of the United States defines treason and limits it so that treason applies only to the most blatant acts of disloyalty to the United States, such as waging war against the United States, collaborating with wartime enemies, or conspiring to overthrow the government of the United States on behalf of a foreign power.

he was being sarcastic bro

^^^^

Finally we agree on something.

Sorta makes your almost feel bad that we are closing Gitmo....almost...

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac):

63% Approve
22% Disapprove

From February 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,490 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1262

36% "undecided" :P

Thanks for the numbers. :)

If Huckabee is the nominee and all he does is whine about how Obama is un-religious...

Are there any numbers from Indiana? I'm anxious to see those.

Massachusetts (Rasmussen):

69% Approve
29% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_february_10_2009

()


Pennsylvania now accounted for -- no surprise there, except I could use a darker shade of green.

The third number is the percentage. I also updated Massachusetts (although really Rasmussen should be kept separate from everyone else because they claim to poll approval differently). But, if we're using everything, Civitas is in there, too.

RealClearPolitics has a new average tracking Obama's approval:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Latest New Hampshire poll by the University of NH:

Obama Approval Rating

66% Approve
21% Disapprove

Obama Favorable Rating:

71% Favorable
16% Unfavorable

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 619 randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between February 5 and February 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-3.9 percent.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_winter_presapp21609.pdf

()


New Hampshire now accounted for, with a very dark green shade.

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Latest Rhode Island poll by Brown University:

How would you rate the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Excellent/Good: 62.4%
Fair/Poor: 16.5%
Don’t know/No answer: 21.1%

The survey was conducted Feb. 7-10, 2009, at Brown University by Marion Orr, the Fred Lippitt Professor of Public Policy and Political Science and director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory. It is based on a statewide random sample of 451 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2009/02/survey

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.

It might be hard to see, but we get to add Rhode Island:

()

Selzer is generally good, but overestimated Obama in IA. SV tends to overestimate Republicans early in the year (just like Rasmussen), but ends up producing good polls just before the election. They just got FL wrong last year. PPP was also rather good, underestimated Obama in Nevada and got MT wrong.

Update:

Rasmussen: 60% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Gallup: 62% Approve, 25% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics: 60% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021909_FNCPoll.pdf

ARG: 60% Approve, 33% Disapprove

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

AP-GfK: 67% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20Poll%20Topline%20021809.pdf

.....

New York (Quinnipiac):

72% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1267

Florida (Quinnipiac):

64% Approve, 23% Disapprove
69% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1266

North Carolina (PPP):

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

NC can't be right. 

Well, according to PPP, only 50% of 18-to-29-year-olds approve of Obama, while 46% disapprove; and this was the only age demographic he carried in November by a thumping 76-24 against McCain, according to exits

He has a net approval rating of 19% (56-37) among the 35-45s, which he lost 48-52; +12 (53-41) among the 46-65s, which he lost 43-56; and +4 (46-42) among the 65+, which he lost 43-56

Dave

Pew Research [February 18, 2009]

Approve 64%; Disapprove 17%

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1125/terrorism-guantanamo-torture-polling

North Carolina must be off.  PPP probably flipped some numbers around.

Michigan (Rasmussen - Feb. 18 - 500 LV):

68% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/michigan/toplines/toplines_michigan_february_18_2009

... and now Michigan, until now the most populous state for which an approval rating wasn't yet posted. Georgia might be equal in electoral votes in 2012, though, as people who have a chance to leave "Michigrim" get to do so.

The Quinnipiac polls put Florida in the 65-75 range, so I make a revision. (I am not making an upgrade for a DailyKos rating for Washington state because DailyKos has an overwhelming left-wing slant).

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%.

Latest Washington numbers (R2000 for DailyKos, Feb. 16-18, 600 LV):

66% favorable
21% unfavorable

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/2/18/WA/209

You'd think people would be polling Indiana by now.

R2k/DailyKos released their weekly update today. They poll a lot of stuff, it's pretty interesting, you should check it out: http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends

Obama Approval:
Favorable: 69% (+1)
Unfavorable: 26% (+1)
Don't know: 5% (-2)

Pelosi is also the only Congressional leader with net favorables (43-39).

Compare those Pelosi numbers to the ones produced by Rasmussen(35-58), and you obviously see that these polls for Kos have an overwhelming Democratic bias.

1) Favorable vs. Approval; it's different

2) Rasmussen seems to be an approval outlier, compared to nearly every other polling firm

Number 2 is pretty much false. They have Obama at 59% while FOX has him at 60% and Gallup at 63%. The ones in the upper 60's are the true outliers(CNN, KOS).

They've pretty consistently had his disapprovals about 10% higher than everyone else (except Insider Advantage and Zogby Internet): http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Well they probably push people more. The others have high numbers of "not sure" which is not really believable that a person could not have an opinion about the President of the United States.

Georgia (Rasmussen - Feb. 17 - 500 LV):

58% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/georgia/toplines/toplines_georgia_likely_voters_february_17_2009

According to Rasmussen's Daily Tracking, Obama's national approval was 59%.

So, if 58% approve in Georgia (which was about -5 for Obama in the '08 election) and 68% in Michigan (which was about +5 for Obama), I think his national approval must be somewhere around 63%.

New CNN poll:

67% Approve
29% Disapprove

Well, whatever they're methodology, it's giving results far off from every other poll that isn't a joke. We should take Rasmussen polls with a grain of salt; they seem to have something of a "house effect", if I may borrow a Silverism.

Doesn't Rasmussen count "fair" as disapprove?

That makes a considerable difference and is annoying and inane.

Here's the question they ask: "Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job President Obama is doing?"

The first two add up to your approval number and the second two are the disapproval.

... and now Georgia, until now the most populous state for which an approval rating wasn't yet posted. Georgia might be equal in electoral votes to Michigan in 2012, though, as people who have a chance to leave "Michigrim" get to do so.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election isn't being held today. 

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

I give him one month before he gets impeached.
;)

What a joke. Even Fox has 60%.

Yeah, call the most accurate pollster in 2008 a joke. See what there gets you.

That doesn't stop his approval rating polls from being some serious outliers. Toss out the 2 biggest outliers (Rasmussen and CNN), and it's clear that his approval rating is in the 60s.
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

Those polls are outdated.

Hardly. The 3 most recent from there:
CNN 2/18-19 67%
Fox 2/17-18 60%
AP 2/12-17 67%

Also, Research 2000 2/16-19 69%

Rasmussen polls Likely Voters, meaning he uses a realistic voter breakdown. The others just pick random people off the streets.

Likely voters for what? The election is 4 years away.

And Rasmussen was far from the most accurate pollster in 2008. They were pretty mediocre overall, and had a bit of a Republican bias.

On the national poll they were essentially dead on. They had 52-46, the final was 53-46. I'd call that pretty damn accurate. Did I say they got the states right?

When you're determining who is a good pollster, ignoring state polling in favor of the final national result is a bad idea.  It's essentially taking one poll and ignoring dozens of others that use a similar methodology.

Either way, an LV screen right now does very little.  The only criteria that can be employed, is past electoral participation.  I'd much prefer RV for now.  Adult does tend to have a Democratic bias.

But you're still doing that annoying mode of analysis you did last time you were here.  You do realize that you were, how to say this, completely wrong?

Apparently I haven't. And the only RV poll out there right now is FOX and that is at 60%.

It's equally unnecessary to just disregard adult polls, though.  If you ask an average group of adults, "are you registered to vote?," many will lie in the affirmative.  Therefore, the % RV is not really hugely lower than the % adult.  It does not account for a nine-point swing like that.

You also have to take into account the quality of the pollster. CNN and R2K are known to have a liberal bias.

1. "Are known to"?  Is this a feeling, or do you have 2008 analytical numbers?  It may be true, but I doubt you know why other than because you want it to be.

2. You're known to have a sharp implicit conservative bias, but yet you never ever ever ever account for that.  You account for other biases rigorously, but only in order to support your own.  What the hell is up with that?

1. In some states they did, but since they never released the crosstabs its hard to tell.
2. I am a moderate.

Why would the crosstabs be relevant to the topline?  We're not adjusting for crosstabs with these polls, either.


I don't care if you're a full-fledged communist.  Your "adjustment" techniques render a sharp pro-Republican bias to your analysis.  Your political affiliation does not make the analysis any less bad.

They are relevant because if they oversampled Democrats and just happened to get lucky with the topline, that doesn't make them a good pollster.

That's a fair point.  However, in the past you've used that just to claim that Democrats are oversampled, and it turned out you were wrong.

Which brings me to the half of my post you clearly ignored, and I eagerly await an answer to.  This is your chance to admit analytical fault, correct for your errors, and redeem yourself -- the scientific way!

Or, keep living in fantasyland and I'll keep annoying you like this.  What's your choice on this one?

I'll admit that in 2008 there was an ahistorical party ID jump towards the Democrats that I did not expect. To go from a tie in party ID to D+8 was something that I found hard to believe. I was basing my analysis off of history, and it turned out to be wrong. Life goes on.

So you think that you used the information available to the best of your abilities?

And you think that you are not any more zealous in adjusting for things that favor Republicans, than Democrats?

That's your final answer?

Probably not.


Of course I am going to try to make things seem better for my candidate than they might appear to be, everyone does that to some degree. But at no point after mid-September, did I ever believe McCain actually had a shot to win.


I'd like to phone a friend first.

I find it really funny when anyone thinks Alcon is being a hack for either side.

Well, I sort of agree. He plays both sides so frequently that he can't be established as a hack for just one side.

Time to resign, I guess.

It's a natural human tendency to overestimate evidence to fit a precept.  Most people over-adjust toward what they want to be true.  Some people over-adjust toward pessimism, because then they're always pleasantly surprised.  Others (studly others with I-WA avatars) attempt to compensate artificially for this, by observing their biases and trying to create "weighted" auto-corrections.  And others use different methods of correction.  Corrections like these aren't perfect (or even close!), but they tend to be closer to reality than what our minds initially tell us.

Outright "try[ing] to make things seem better for my candidate than they might appear to be" is even worse than just working on those precepts.  It's, like, bad ESPN football analysis.  "Everyone" does not do that.  And, what's the point?  I guess, if the point of political analysis for you is to find creative ways to prove that what you want to happen, will happen, that's an option.  But, even ifyour goal is creative thinking, the resulting info is totally poisoned.  You could make it more useful.  As it is, the product of your analysis has nothing to with actuality.  It's useless.

I'm not advocating the way I (over)compensate, but knowing you have a bias and encouraging yourself to propagate it, is even worse than pretending that it doesn't exist.  Which is bad enough.  Things will inevitably end up not corresponding with reality.  If you're going in with the intent of making them correspond with reality as little as possible (that is, "make things seem better than they might appear to be"), why even bother advancing your theories?

So, if you're going for something other than realism...well, mazel tov with getting people interested in that.  Otherwise, I ask again:  What the hell?

Thanks for the lecture. If my goal in life was to please you then I might care, but since it's not, I will continue to be optimistic about my candidates chances, even if that is somehow unacceptable to you.

That wasn't a lecture, that was a question with paragraphs!  A question with paragraphs!

I'm not asking you to be likable.  I'm just saying there are more private places to masturbate than Internet forums

Metaphorically speaking.

Isn't that the whole point of forums? So people can masturbate together? Metaphorically speaking of course.

You're creeping me out.  Unmetaphorically.

Cut the allegations of stupidity.

Sure, it might be a honeymoon.  Note well that when the approval rating is above the percentage that voted for him, that something has gone right. The approval rating is above the voting percentage.

What could that mean?

1. That Obama has shown clearly what his administration will be like for until the next Presidential election.

Unlikely. Things can change rapidly. Nobody ever expected George W. Bush to preside over the most extensive interventions in the economy even as late as August 2008.

2. That he has made no severe and irreversible blunders.

That depends upon one's ideology.

3. That he has kept campaigning after winning the election.

That would be pathological if such were true.

4. He was a stronger candidate than the votes suggested in November.

That says more about John McCain than about Barack Obama. Considering how dreadful Dubya was, McCain could hardly have been anything less than an improvement.  Would McCain have similar approval ratings had he won? Maybe.

5. It's the normal respect for the winner if not an incumbent.

He will need to sacrifice some political capital to achieve what he wants to achieve, and both  the economy and extant wars stand to bite back.

6. He has fostered expectations that he can never achieve.   

2/23/09:

Rasmussen 58%/40%
Gallup 62%/25%

What Happened to the Hopemonger?

By David Paul Kuhn

Here's a fact that will probably shock you: Americans today have the same level of confidence in President Obama as they had in George W. Bush after his first month in office. According to Gallup, Obama's public approval rating currently stands at 63 percent, only a point above George W. Bush in late February 2001.

Few modern presidents have been greeted with such lofty expectations as Obama. That Obama now stands where Bush did eight years ago, on the eve of his first address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, serves as a reminder of how quickly the demands of the presidency can sober even the most talented politicians.

Obama's popularity today, by Gallup's measure, is a few points higher than Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan at the infancy of their presidencies. He precisely matches George H.W. Bush. And excluding Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson who took office amid tragedy, and therefore earned staggeringly high early approval, Obama is notably shy of other new presidents. Jimmy Carter and John Kennedy had more than seven out of 10 Americans behind them at the close of their first February in office.

This is the stage Obama takes tomorrow. The hardest legislative battles are before him and the luster that greeted him on Inauguration Day is now behind him.

It's long been said that presidents are only as powerful as their public perception. Already, President Obama has lost a measure of his hopefulness at the moment he most requires it. The public seems to have noticed. And there are some in Washington who speculate that Obama's standing could still worsen.

"Obama is in a much weaker position than his poll numbers suggest and I think that the whole thing could collapse on him sooner rather than later," Doug Schoen, one of Bill Clinton's former pollsters, said.

That remains to be seen. But even at this early stage, Obama has already assumed a good deal of risk. With his first major legislative accomplishment, a $787 billion dollar economic stimulus bill, he has taken ownership of an economy that could quickly worsen.

Obama's potential legislative achievements ahead will be directly tied to his popularity, which has ebbed a couple points in recent weeks. The portion of the public disapproving of the president has also doubled over that period, from 12 percent to 24 percent.

Just last year, President Bush was unable to rally his own party around his bailout legislation because he no longer carried with him the perception of public support. There was a similar impasse a couple years earlier as Bush pushed for immigration reform.

Obama's challenges are far greater than Bush's at the outset of his presidency, as are his objectives. Obama's domestic agenda is the most ambitious since Lyndon Johnson.

President Johnson, however, reminds us of what can go wrong. LBJ aspired to be the greatest president since Franklin Roosevelt. But he escalated a war without end and lost control of the times. Obama's fate is not likely that of Johnson's. But despite the allusions to Roosevelt, comparisons to FDR may be no more apt.

Obama seems however not to be discussed in these sober terms. In fact the one person who could use less sober words, the president himself, seems too solemn in his first weeks.

Obama scoffed during the 2008 campaign at some in Washington considering him, in Obama's words, a "hope-monger." But this is not Obama’'s problem of late. The Democratic president is not offering Carter's malaise. But now some wonder whether the president is helping matters by repeatedly comparing the nation's hard times to its worst economic catastrophe, the Great Depression.

The unemployment rate remains a third of what it was in the first year of Franklin Roosevelt's presidency. FDR inherited a stock market that was 75 percent below its 1929 high. It took decades for the market to return to that high. Obama is right to worry about what more could happen, but he's hardly helping the markets when he repeatedly harkens to its most horrible era.

Moreover, it never helps a player who is in a slump to keep talking about it. So it is with the nation as well. There are now increasingly calls for Obama to move toward the more convincing and sanguine rhetoric of Roosevelt and Reagan. Last week, the president who came from a place called Hope (Arkansas) asked for more soaring words from the candidate of hope. Bill Clinton praised Obama's realism, but he added to ABC News that he “would like” Obama to conclude his speeches “by saying that he is hopeful and completely convinced we’re gonna come through this.” Clinton's talent is not just that he uses optimistic words, but that he conveys reassurance as well. Obama must do no less, especially since some of his ebb in popularity may be partially rooted in his more somber tone.

FDR owned this sense of optimism. His inaugural address framed fear as the antagonist with the famous line, “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” He spoke of overcoming the Great Depression in war-like terms, requesting similarly broad executive powers. He said what mattered was to “try something.” Obama has taken that lesson to heart. Yet FDR was able to do so, in part, because he kept the country believing that he could.

"You have a lot of people invested in this guy succeeding," said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio of Obama. Fabrizio believes its “always better to under promise and over deliver.”

That may be true when it comes to legislation and predicting public support, but Schoen argues that a president must over deliver on the big picture. Obama's restrained optimism, in Schoen's view, is not helping a president already undermined by early mishaps, such as his problems with several cabinet nominations.

"Thirty days after Obama [took office] the Democrats face much more vulnerability than I ever thought was Possible," Schoen said.

Obama came into office with unrivaled good will. Now his early Bush-like level of popularity reminds his White House that goodwill can only do so much.

But that Obama remains slightly more popular than Reagan, after his first month, reminds the White House that a president can take on a lofty aura that sometimes eludes him early on. In January 1981, Reagan inherited the same unemployment rate as Obama. But Reagan conveyed in words and tone Americans indigenous optimism, as Obama still must.

Both Reagan and Obama began their presidencies with less than one in five Americans “satisfied” with the direction of the country. At the same time, today, like when Reagan first took office, eight in 10 Americans remain “satisfied with the way things are going in” their “own personal life.” Recently, the Pew Research Center found that 46 percent of Americans believe “the nation's economy will improve” in the next year. By comparison, 59 percent of Americans believe their personal finances will improve.

In other words, the people today seem more optimistic than their president. They haven't given up hope, and Obama's burden tomorrow is to demonstrate that neither has he.
David Paul Kuhn is the author of The Neglected Voter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/02/what_happened_to_the_hopemonge.html

We now discover how much hidden damage happened under our 43rd President.  The banking failures demonstrate the folly of Dubya's demagoguery of "every family owning a home" despite low incomes. The job losses demonstrate the tendency of entities once known as manufacturers becoming importers instead.

In late February 2001 Americans continued to bask in the Indian Summer of the aftermath of the Clinton era in which government was still small (give appropriate credit to the Republican-majority Congress that kept Clinton from enacting the big programs of his dreams, of course); eight years later we reel from massive corruption and incompetence in Big Business. Government takes over failing entities -- something unnecessary except for failures. Hank Paulson and George W. Bush were firm believers in free enterprise and had no proclivities toward socialism. Reality had a socialist bias in the autumn of 2008.

Dubya was much less a reformer than a socialist; reform would have made the government takeovers of business unnecessary.   

Uhh, I think you are confusing presidents. That was Clinton.

NYT/CBS News Poll:

63% Approve
22% Disapprove

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll is based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 18 through Feb. 22 with 1,112 adults throughout the United States.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20090224poll-results.pdf

Washington Post/ABC News Poll:

68% Approve
25% Disapprove

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 19-22, 2009, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults including both landline and cell phone-only respondents.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1086a2ObamaatOneMonth.pdf

This week we should also get fresh 15-state numbers from SUSA ...

North Carolina (Civitas Institute):

65% Approve
16% Disapprove

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 16 to 19, 2009. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4%.

http://www.wnct.com/nct/news/local/article/nc_president_obama_poll_results/32263/

Obama should resign. It's clear that the American people have rejected his socialist, possibly Muslim, agenda.

DEMINT/CANTOR 2012

No way a leftist Jew f****t like Cantor will be on the ticket.

DeMint/Coburn!
And just in case that doesn't work, Santorum/Limbaugh.
:)

Rasmussen Obama Approval 2/24/09:

Overall 59.5%/39.2%

GOP: 32.5%/66.8%
DEM: 86.1%/11.9%
INDY: 51.2%/47.8%

MEN: 51.6%/47.6%
WOMEN: 66.3%/31.9%

WHITE: 56.1%/43.2%
BLACK: 85.7%/8.8%
OTHER: 55.9%/43.4%

SurveyUSA has just released the new February polls from 14 states:

Alabama:

48% Approve (-12)
45% Disapprove (+21)

California:

63% Approve (-14)
33% Disapprove (+18)

Iowa:

63% Approve (-5)
32% Disapprove (+10)

Kansas:

54% Approve (-8)
37% Disapprove (+13)

Kentucky:

57% Approve (-5)
37% Disapprove (+12)

Massachusetts:

66% Approve (-12)
29% Disapprove (+18)

Minnesota:

62% Approve (-2)
32% Disapprove (+11)

Missouri:

51% Approve (-14)
43% Disapprove (+22)

New Mexico:

59% Approve (-6)
34% Disapprove (+12)

New York:

70% Approve (-8)
25% Disapprove (+14)

Oregon:

61% Approve (-7)
32% Disapprove (+14)

Virginia:

54% Approve (-8)
42% Disapprove (+19)

Washington:

64% Approve (-5)
32% Disapprove (+15)

Wisconsin:

60% Approve (-10)
37% Disapprove (+19)

...

So you're being just as idiotic as the people saying he's guaranteed to lose?

We're barely a month into his Presidency, folks. It's not time for anyone to get cocky.

When did I say he was guaranteed to win? I was just making fun of the hacks who think Obama's approvals are collapsing or that the stimulus/his economic policies are unpopular.

Well, maybe you haven't said it out right but you've implied it and haven't once corrected these ridiculous maps that have him practically sweeping the nation.

Anything is possible, as you so like to say. A Reagan/Nixon/LBJ-re-election-esque victory is a distinct possibility.

It looks like Alabama is starting to remember that it's Alabama.

Sure it is but at the same time you say that, you laugh off the possibility of a Republican landslide. Consistency problem? Absolutely.

For the first time in Rasmussen's Daily Tracking there are no "Undecideds" today:

60% Approve
40% Disapprove

BTW, Gallup:

65% Approve
21% Disapprove

Also, Texas Approval Ratings for Obama by PPP:

45% Approve
46% Disapprove

PPP polled 1,409 likely voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Texas_226.pdf

Seems to be the first poll that shows a negative rating for Obama ...

California (Public Policy Institute of California):

70% Approve
16% Disapprove

This report presents the responses of 2,502 California adult residents, including 1,453 likely
voters. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days from February 3–17, 2009.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_209MBS.pdf

Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall):

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

55% Excellent/Good
36% Fair/Poor

Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable or unfavorable ?

56% Favorable
23% Unfavorable

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted February 17-22, 2009. The data included in this release represent the responses of 644 adult residents of Pennsylvania. The sample error for this survey is +/- 3.9 percent.

http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/download/2009/0226/18801144.pdf

Adjustments made. Yellow indicates approval under 50%. 

Obama has a net +10 improvement in two days, says Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Approve: 65%
Disapprove: 21%
Don't Know: 14%

Clearly, Obama should just give a fancy prime time speech every month, and he'll be popular forever.

Latest DailyKos/R2000 weekly update:

71% Favorable
25% Unfavorable

A total of 2400 adults nationally were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each state in the country in order to reflect the adult population nationally. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 2% percentage points.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends
http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/2/26

Has the RNC installed the ''Countdown to impeachment'' clock yet?

[o,g]http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/fsvxqfje20ybafiq1cltha.gif[/img]

()

This guy is so popular, it's insane.  I was reading some of the comments on his decision not to withdraw from Iraq at CNN and the same people who were praising him for opposing the war are now calling Pelosi names for disagreeing with the Chosen One.  I'm so glad now I didn't vote for this liar (I voted for Nader).

He's still withdrawing from Iraq.

He's ending the war and its spending by August 2010 and all troops will be out by 2011, is CNN spinning this or something?

Well Pelosi and other congressional leaders believe it should happen earlier, something I agree with (and something Obama based much of his campaign on as well).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/02/27/democrats-voice-concerns-on-obamas-iraq-drawdown-plan/

As you can see most of the people making comments are saying things like "I LUUVV da PrezidenT" and are asking for Pelosi's head.

Obama always made it clear that he would listen to the generals, and get out as carefully as we carelessly got in.

lol Texas.

Goodness why hasn't a polling agency done Indiana yet? Who cares about the Alabama approval rating?

North Carolina (Elon University):

59% Approve
25% Disapprove

The survey was conducted Sunday, February 22nd through Thursday, February 26th of
2009. Interviews for this survey were completed with 758 adults from households in North Carolina. For a sample size of 758, there is a 95 percent probability that our survey
results are within plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/022709_ElonPollData.pdf

Are you seriously posting verbatim lines from Obama campaign speeches as your argument?

All Obama's Iraq plan does is abide by the SOFA signed before he ever took office.  The Iraq stuff is the least interesting news story of the month unless you've been paying literally no attention all this time.

Obama Surge !

Rasmussen - Tuesday - 03/03/2009:

60% Approve (+2)
39% Disapprove (-2)

Add a few points to the Approval column simply because it's Rasmussen(R).

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (Feb 27-March 1, 2009):

57% Approve
28% Disapprove
15% Undecided

http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll

Tennessee (MTSU poll):

53% Approve
27% Disapprove

RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s race, and three-fourths say they’ve heard or read at least one, even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/mtpoll/s2009/MTSU%20Poll%20National%20Report_final.pdf

Just for the heck of it (and I know I'm going to get lambasted for it) this Tennesseean will tell the racist joke he heard about Obama:

Why is Obama afraid to go to sleep?


Because the last N***a who had a dream got shot.

That's the first one I heard too! Actually, it was my latino boyfriend who told me, and he's the biggest Obama supporter ever, so I can't really say making racist jokes about Obama means you dislike him.

Right. Because so many polls have him higher than 60%. I guess you want to add a few to the NBC/WSJ poll too. What about the Cook Political Report? Why not even Gallup while you're at it? Give me a break dude. Obama is at 60%.

lol

WSJ/NBC poll (February 26-March 1, 2009):

60% Approve
26% Disapprove
14% Undecided

68% Have positive feelings about Obama
19% Have negative feelings about Obama
13% Have neutral feelings about Obama

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/090303_NBC-WSJ_poll.pdf

The most hilarious thing is that "nearly one in six" and "15%" are pretty much the same number. Some misleading reporting of the numbers...

New York (Marist Poll)

68% Excellent/Good
28% Fair/Poor

This survey of 1,045 registered voters in New York State was conducted on February 25th and February 26th, 2009.  Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections.  Results are statistically significant at ±3%.  There are 480 Democrats and 314 Republicans.  Results for these subsamples are statistically significant at ±4.5% and ±5.5%, respectively.  The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/NY090303.htm

... and we get new numbers, if no 'new' states polled Declines, largely, but not huge ones or where one wouldn't expect them.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election still isn't being held today. 



Adjustments made. Yellow indicates approval under 50%. 


... If Obama is above 50% in Tennessee, then that suggests that the GOP has its work cut out.

That's exactly what I was lol'ing at :P  In fact, ostensibly the "not funny" one is likely to be higher, since 15% is closer to one in seven.  But then there's rounding...

Still, funny.

New California Field Poll:

()

Texas (Rasmussen)

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/47_of_texas_voters_support_governor_s_opposition_to_stimulus_funds)

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

Bottom Line: Obama will not win TX in 2012 ...

He can, but some things have to change.

The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton's ideology was much like that of Jimmy Carter and was even from a neighboring State and did not win. (All right, the Arkansas/Texas border is short by Texas standards... but Hope, Arkansas is very close to the Texas/Arkansas state line.   

Should Obama win Texas, he wins it in at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

Still stunned at no polling of Indiana. It goes Democratic for the first time in 44 years and no one polls it post-election. Honestly.

If it makes you happy:

I´ve just sent E-mails to Rasmussen, PPP, R2000, SurveyUSA, Selzer & Co. and Howey Gauge with a request to poll Indiana, or if they have any plans to do so ... ;)

The problem nowadays is that with the bad economy, less newspapers are willing to commission costly polls ...

Sh!t, I forgot Zogby !

Quick response from Del Ali of Research2000:

"Probably not until June or July when either WISH-TV or the Daily Kos commissions a poll for Indiana. I think this would be an interesting poll.
 
take care - Del"

PS: With "interesting poll" he's referring to my request that they should poll Obama vs. Romney/Huckabee/Palin/Jindal for an early look on 2012 in the state, as well as Obama's approval rating in Indiana and the perceptions of IN voters on the economy.

While I think it is relatively unlikely that Obama will win Texas in '12, that poll is far from a sign that he can't.  Historically, there has been a very very strong correlation between where an incumbent's approval rating is in relation to the 50% mark and their margin of victory/defeat.  Barring a remarkably strong or poor candidate on the other side, it's basically a referendum on the incumbent.  Bush's approval rating in exit polls in 2004 was 53%, he won by 3 points.  If you split the (somewhat large number of) undecideds evenly, Clinton's approval rating in polls right before the 96 election is almost exactly 58.5%, and he won by 8 1/2 points.  Again, I wouldn't put any money on it, but if Obama is at a high-ebb of popularity in November 2012, he certainly CAN win TX.

Also interesting... Colorado and Arizona. Both are legitimate swing states, even if they gave near-10% margins for the winners of those states.

Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf

What about Gallup at 62%? Cook Political at 57%? NBC/WSJ at 60%? I think its more in the 60-63% range, rather than 65%-70%.

Those polls have all 10-25% Undecideds. In fact, no poll besides Rasmussen has ever shown Obama's disapproval higher than 29%. If you allocate the Undecides by 6/4 for Obama, you are approaching 70% Approval.

You can't just allocate undecideds like that. In fact, if they aren't willing to say they approve of Obama, I'm willing to bet they are more likely to disapprove of him.

That's like saying the undecideds broke way more for McCain than Obama last November, which wasn't the case obviously.

Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly "Deutschlandtrend" by Infratest-dimap for the TV station ARD (1000 Germans interviewed, March 2-3):

74% Approve
2% Disapprove
24% Undecided

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/download/dt0902.pdf

Quite impressive.

It's astonishing that the number of traitors (2%) is already this high.

What's Hitler's approval rating in Germany? 2%?

Let's remember that the superb German intelligence services stated clearly that Saddam Hussein had no WMD programs and had no connection to international terrorism before Dubya invaded Iraq. Also, George W. Bush put his hands on Chancellor Angela Merkel once, behavior best described as repugnant.

I figure that Dubya was (and remains) extremely unpopular in Germany -- and Obama has a huge reservoir of good will. 

Minnesota (Rasmussen):

62% Approve (47% Strongly)
38% Disapprove (26% Strongly)

This state telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 3, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/61_of_minnesota_voters_don_t_think_pawlenty_should_seek_presidency_in_2012

New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson University):

66% Approve
21% Disapprove
13% Undecided

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 751 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from Feb. 25, 2009 through March 2, 2009, and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/or/tab.html

National (Newsweek):

Approve 58%
Disapprove 26%
Undecided 16%

http://www.newsweek.com/id/188005

That actually seems a little low to me.

Zogby Approval

Approve 52%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1681

Time for Drudge to bring out the sirens.

LOL at Zogby.

Rasmussen Reports and pollster.com shows Obama's approval dipping to his lowest yet.  Unsurprisingly, this thread has been relatively quiet today.

Here is a handy-dandy chart:

()

Obama is now less popular than Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Bush 41, and Bush 43 at this point in their Presidencies.

Go Obama go!

And more popular than Reagan, the one who had the largest victory of all of those people.

Yes I know that this is fairly old, but I decided to make a graph of Obama's approval ratings in his first month (January 20 to February 19 2009 inclusively) according to Rasmussen Reports:

()

It shows net approval (total approve minus total disapprove), and the information was collected from http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history).

Also interesting is this article (which has a link to the previously mentioned Web page): http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll).

No statistical significance. One can say nothing, so one might as well remain quiet.

What are you talking about, 'no statistical significance'?  It's inherently statistically significant because it's a statistic!

I could shut up about the whole thing.  But then, why have the thread at all?

I look at the curve, look at the wild scatter of data points, I look at the regression line and I find the regression line over roughly 50 days more precise than the data suggest. In effect I see no cause to believe that Obama has been gaining or losing popularity (which I think is your point), although I see significant difference in popularity at a similar time between Obama and either Ronald Reagan or John F. Kennedy.

No, I don't have the tools for an analysis of regression at my disposal now because I don't have the raw data and I don't have the computer program available for it. But I have seen plenty of random scatters, and very few of them give an exactly flat line of regression.

There is no reason to believe that the support for Obama is anything other than flat. Over time there will be more data and there will be less randomness. There is plenty of time between now and November 2012 for events and deeds to shape the regression "line".

lulz

Connecticut (Quinnipiac University):

67% Approve
23% Disapprove
10% Undecided

From March 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,238 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1272

()

Counting 66% as "7" for New Jersey and now 67% as "7" for Connecticut.

Ipsos/McClatchy:

65% Approve
29% Disapprove

Obama's approval rating, for example, is 89 percent among Democrats and 25 percent among Republicans. Among independents, his approval rating is 58 percent.

These are some of the findings of a McClatchy-Ipsos poll conducted last Thursday through Monday. For the survey, Ipsos interviewed a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of 1,070 people 18 and older across the United States. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 3.04 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/politics/story/63774.html

Delaware (Public Policy Polling):

63% Approve
31% Disapprove

His reviews are pretty polarized along party lines with 89% of Democrats but only 25% of Republicans expressing support for the job he’s doing. Independents are pretty much divided, with 49% giving him good marks compared to 43% who are not.

PPP surveyed 782 Delaware voters between March 5th and 8th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_DE_311.pdf

New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

61% Approve (D: 94%, I: 57%, R: 22%)
28% Disapprove (D: 3%, I: 28%, R: 64%)

From March 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,386 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1274

NJ = 6,

11% undecided won't split 9-2 for Obama to get 70

Rasmussen National Approval (March 9-11):

58% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen California Approval (March 9):

56% Approve (LOL !)
43% Disapprove (LOL !)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/california/toplines_california_senate_election_2010_march_9_2009

Gallup National Approval (March 9-11):

63% Approve
27% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Rasmussen New Jersey Approval (March 10):

59% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/toplines/toplines_new_jersey_governor_march_10_2009

California is a right-wing state

California actuallybeing below the national average is as likely as Wyoming voting for Obama in 2012.

Rasmussen New York

Approve 65%
Disapprove 34%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/new_york/toplines/toplines_ny_governor_march_11_2009

THAT looks about right (about 5% too low).

As if there's such a big difference between CA & NY ... :P

Fascinating crosstabs data over time from the Research 2000/Dailykos poll (which has a significant democratic lean but is very stable)

()

Obama is getting killed among Republicans and in the South relative to where he was at inauguration time, but any movement in most other demographics just looks like statistical noise right now.

It's really stunning how far out of the mainstream the South has drifted.

So in effect the cultural divide that existed on November 4, 2008 remains. It figures.

Pew Poll Obama Approval

Approve 59%(-5%)
Disapprove 26%(+9%)

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/498.pdf

CNN Obama Approval

Approve 64%(-3)
Disapprove 34%(+5)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/16/obama.poll/index.html

The deluge is coming!!!!!!!!

lolz!

()

Well, I guess the White House is concerned enough about the trend that they are shifting into campaign mode.  Fund raising, appearances on Leno, stops in battleground states, etc.

Just like Clinton, this will be a never-ending campaign with the objective to keep the approval ratings as high as possible.  And the dumb ass Republicans are afraid to take him on directly, allowing him to run circles around him.  They deserve to lose then.  I'm at the point that I'll support the first Republican who has the stones to go after him.  That's why Sanford is looking good at the moment.

In fact the GOP largely took Obama on directly, voting against his stimulus and threatening to filibuster against it. That is standing up to Obama, even if it should prove folly a few months hence.

Dubya didn't do that? Sure. he knew enough to stay clear of places that would never vote for him. That demonstrates an awareness of his weaknesses as a campaigner.

We shall see soon enough whether standing up to Obama is political suicide or wisdom -- fewer than twenty months from now. I will be right or you will be wrong. Don't be surprised if there should be a defection or two from the GOP.

Obama's approvals will inevitably fall below 50%. The only question is whether it comes in June, July, August, September, etc.

Obama's Approval Equal To or Better Than Bush's, Clinton's [Gallup, March 16, 2009]

Biggest change since inauguration has been decline among Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116845/Obama-Approval-Equal-Better-Bush-Clinton.aspx

Mid-March Ratings

Obama (2009): 61% Approve; 28% Disapprove
Bush (2005): 58% Approve; 29% Disapprove
Clinton (1993): 53% Approve; 34% Disapprove

Obama Job Approval, By Party I/D

Republicans: 26% Approve; 63% Disapprove

Independents: 59% Approve; 26% Disapprove

Democrats: 91% Approve; 4% Disapprove

Gallup Poll Daily Tracking, March 9-15, 2009

 In sum, since his inauguration, Obama's approvals remain stratospheric among Democrats; steady among Independents but they show a marked decline among Republicans

Dave

Texas (University of Texas, Feb. 24 - March 6, 2009):

45% Approve
42% Disapprove
13% Undecided

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/200903-summary.pdf

CBS News Poll:

62% Approve
24% Disapprove
14% Undecided

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,142 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 12-16, 2009. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_031709_7am.pdf

NPR Obama Approval

Approve 59%
Disapprove 35%

http://media.npr.org/documents/2009/mar/nprpoll/nprpoll_interview.pdf

The more relevant question is when he gets out of it.

Rasmussen himself gives an excellent explanation in comparing his approval poll vs. others.  I basically agree with every point made.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/comparing_approval_ratings_from_different_polling_firms

Rasmussen (March 15-17):

57% Approve
42% Disapprove

Gallup (March 15-17):

61% Approve
28% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling (March 13-15):

55% Approve
37% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_318.pdf

Ohio Quinnipiac (March 10-15):

57% Approve
33% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1277

That seems hard to believe.

University polls are never the best.

Arizona - Rasmussen

Approve 53%
Disapprove 47%

The numbers are in the premium crosstabs.

One more state to add:

Rasmussen (March 17-19):

55% Approve ("That’s his lowest overall rating to date.")
43% Disapprove

Gallup (March 17-19):

62% Approve
27% Disapprove

ARG (March 16-19):

56% Approve
37% Disapprove

North Carolina - PPP - (March 17-19):

53% Approve
40% Disapprove

North Carolina - Elon University - (March 15-19):

61% Approve
29% Disapprove

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/4780410/

any polls that don't have him in the mid 60s are obviously bogus

I wonder how McCain would do now ...

Mid-40s ?

I'd guess around 50%. Lower than Obama anyway. And Palin would've made a good few blunders by now.

It'd be split about 50-50.

The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup widened today:

Rasmussen:

55% Approve (nc)
44% Disapprove (+1)

Gallup:

64% Approve (+2)
26% Disapprove (-1)

I'd guess Obama is probaby at about 60% right now.

Probably because Rasmussen uses a LV screen while Gallup uses adults.

A LV screen is ridiculous 3 and a half years before an election.

I don't think Rasmussen is using an LV screen. If they are, it's monumentally stupid in an off-year. LV screens are useless more than three months before an election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/comparing_approval_ratings_from_different_polling_firms

But a registered voter poll is a million times better than an adult poll which is useless.

The problem is that many of them won't be around to vote in 2012, while younger people who will be able to vote by then aren't polled.
So to use registered, or even worse likely, voters screen NOW is completely useless.

Wait, so you are saying people like Gallup are polling kids? LOL. They are polls ofadults. That means everyone is at least 18, which means that registered voters are a better gauge of a poll of a people that actually matter. If you don't vote, you don't matter.

No, you got it completely backwards.
I am saying that there are adults who just became (or will soon become) eligible to vote, but they haven't registered yet (something normal, we are years away from the next election).
So, these people aren't polled, even though in 2010 and 2012 they will vote, thus their opinion matters.

Rasmussen's LV screen caused it to get the election wrong in some states, typically by undercounting the likely Democratic vote. The 18-22 vote in 2008 was strongly Democratic, and it was unusually high for youth vote. If one was under 22 on November 4, 2008, then Rasmussen's LV screen (that is, those people who had voted in a the last Presidential election) ignored one. It even rejected people actively campaigning for their respective parties, and if any people vote, it is they, so long as they are of voting age.

It's a reasonable screen in most elections, but not this time.   It is made to prevent bias and reject the spin of the Democrats... but this time it is an over-response to such a concern, and that can at times be as hazardous as outright bias.

Should voters born between 1991 and 1994 act much like those born between 1987 and 1990 in the next election, then the GOP stands to be in deep trouble. 

Up once again:

Rasmussen:

56% Approve (+1)
43% Disapprove (-1)

Gallup:

65% Approve (+1)
26% Disapprove (nc)

People who don't approve of our President make baby Jesus cry. :(

Tennessee - Rasmussen - March 16 - 500 Likely Voters:

51% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/tennessee/toplines_tennessee_likely_voters_march_16_2009

So TN is only 4% more anti-Obama than the nation as a whole?

Okay Rasmussen... ::)

So, given these results, isn't Obama's national approval really closer to 62% ?

Tennessee was about 11% less Democratic than the nation.

All of Rasmussen approval polls have seemed... odd compared to polls from other firms.

New York - Siena College - March 16-18 - 626 Registered Voters:

70% Favorable
23% Unfavorable

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/09%20March%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

Harris Poll, March 9-16, 2.355 adults interviewed online:

55% Excellent/Good
45% Fair/Poor

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/pubs/Harris_Poll_2009_03_23.pdf

Another graph, this time of Obama's second month (February 20 to March 19 inclusively), again acccording to Rasmussen Reports.

()

Again this is net approval (total approve minus total disapprove), and the information was collected from http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history).

CBS News, March 20-22, 949 adults:

64% Approve (+2)
20% Disapprove (-4)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Mar09b-AIG.pdf

"The honeymoon is over, a national poll will signal today as President Obama’s job approval stumbles to about 50 percent over the lack of improvement with the crippled economy.

Pollster John Zogby said his poll out today will show Americans split on the president’s performance. He said the score factors out to “about 50-50.”

Some polls show Obama coasting with a 65 percent job approval, but not in Zogby’s tally.

“The numbers are going down,” Zogby told the Herald. “It’s not because of the gaffes, but a combination of high expectations and that things aren’t moving fast enough with the economy.”

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view.bg?articleid=1160639

Zogby is such a troll.

That's good news for John McCain.

And don't forget the Bradley Effect, of course.

Uh-oh. Drudge better get his sirens out!

() ZOGBY: OBAMA MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT SINCE GEORGE W. BUSH ()

...I shudder to think what Drudge's headline's gonna be.

PPP Arkansas

Approve 47%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AR_3241.pdf

North Carolina (Civitas Poll):

64% Favorable
24% Unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-obama-perdue-enjoy-early-favorable-rating

The actual numbers are:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

LOL !

Zogby International conducted an online survey of 4523 voters.

A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate. Slight weights were added region, party, age, race, religion, gender, education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error is +/- 1.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1686

Surely even the most far-right Republican could see that those numbers are botched.

Epic fail.

I don't know about that, but it is pretty obvious.

One more state to add:


()

Arkansas, roughly an even split, but a state in which Obama was crushed in 2008.

Michigan (EPIC-MRA for Detroit News-WXYZ-TV):

54% Excellent/Good
39% Fair/Poor

67% Favorable
26% Unfavorable

Michiganians also say they support Obama's policies and goals, by a margin of 64 percent to 32 percent.

Jennifer Granholm:

36% Excellent/Good
63% Fair/Poor

46% Favorable
52% Unfavorable

The poll of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted from March 19-22. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090325/POLITICS/903250385/1408/LOCAL/Obama+gets+good+job+review+in+Michigan+poll

Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall College):

59% Favorable
21% Unfavorable

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/news/cityregion/s_617671.html

I'd really like to see Indiana, South Carolina and Vermont done.

Utah (Dan Jones for Deseret News):

51% Approve
43% Disapprove

()

"Even so, only 60 percent of Salt Lake County residents approve of the job Obama is doing, Jones found in a survey conducted last week of 400 adults statewide. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent."

http://deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,705292894,00.html

BTW: Why is Alabama coloured in yellow ?

SUSA had it 48-45 last time ...

The last that I saw, Alabama had a net negative rating for Obama. That deserves a different color.

...

I'd love to see analogous polls  Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas, and South Carolina: those states were close enough that some think that they will be in play in 2012.  Colorado is still out?

We will probably get Maine, Vermont, Maryland, Mississippi, Idaho, and Oklahoma instead.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f385051a-03b2-4947-a115-65d3f82f71fc

Anyway, new March polls by SUSA will be out in the coming days, and I believe AL will move into negative territory ...

The forum standard for maps of this kind is green for positive and red for negative.  :)

But Red is associated with Democrats (and now Obama) in this Forum.... and yellow gives an adequate contrast and is available. I can't hold anyone to my choice, but I had good reason for picking yellow. Nobody seemed to complain about the color until now.

People can differentiate red for Obama from red for disapproval, just like we did with the various maps of gubernatorial and senatorial approval maps that were made in the past.

I didn't mention this sooner because (a) I hadn't seen it; and (b) I thought Alabama was giving a tied rating.  Now I know differently, I just wanted to point it out to you so other people won't make a similar mistake. :)

Pennsylvania (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1280)
The Quinnipiac University Poll
3/19-3/23/2009; 1,056 registered voters, +/- 3% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Barack Obama Job Rating
All voters: 61% approve, 30% disapprove
(Feb 2009: 63% approve, 22% disapprove)

()

Survey USA gives Obama a small net positive rating in Alabama. Thus the color change!

Did anyone watch O' Reilly in Late October? I remember one of Zogby's polls was being publicized because it said more Americans like McCain better on the economy then Obama. Then, they had Dick Morris on, and he infamously said: "The tide is turning. This is just the tip of the iceberg." LOL. Hilarious. Zogby is SO horrible.

The Propaganda Channel (FoX "News") isn't a reliable source. It spins everything as its ownership wants news to be spun -- and we all know what that means. If it doesn't get the news that it likes it creates the news. It deliberately conflates its analysis with objective reporting, and its selection of talking heads is one of choosing the appropriate lapdogs (for Dubya) and attack dogs (for Clinton and Obama). When a guest fails to take the Party Line FoX "News" turns on the guest, calling the fellow a nut, a member of the Far Left, or un-American.

Does anyone remember the Valerie Plame scandal? As other media were examining it, FoX "News" diverted people with the wall-to-wall coverage of the disappearance of Natalee Holloway in Aruba. I'm not going to trivialize the disappearance (and likely death) of a pretty girl from the right side of the tracks (or an ugly one from the wrong side), but I knew that as soon as FoX "News" started a story in Aruba there was news to be had elsewhere.

Add to this, a survey of Americans on news sources and their correlation to being right on the Iraq war asked people to agree or disagree with three statements involving the war:

1. Saddam Hussein had connections to such international terror groups as al-Qaeda.

2. Saddam Hussein possessed or tried to procure or develop weapons of mass destruction despite sanctions imposed by the United Nations.

3. The rest of the world generally concurs with the American invasion of Iraq.

All three statements are demonstrably false.

Then they were asked what news sources they replied on.  It is hardly surprising that those who depended upon newspapers (printed or electronic) were most likely to get all three answers right.  Radio sources were next-best, NPR listeners getting the best marks. Regular viewers of CNN and MSNBC were slightly poorer, but generally well-informed. Viewers of PBS' News Hour with Jim Lehrer did about as well as NPR radio listeners... but that's no-fluff news and it does not make compromises for attention spans. 

Those who relied upon the news of the nightly news  three main networks (CBS, ABC, and NBC) were highly likely to get it wrong. It's just not possible to get all of one's news from 30 minutes of televised news that fits a commercial format.

Now here's the tragedy -- regular viewers of FoX News Channel got it most regularly -- WRONG! Its viewers watch much of what looks like news...  but somehow isn't.

Oddly, those who relied on Comedy Central's Daily Show got it right about as well as NPR listeners. That's a comedy program!

(Whatever virtues regular viewers of FoX "News", being well-informed isn't one of them).

It uses the US flag extensively as if acceptance of its disinformation at face value were an act of patriotism.

That entity is more adept at propaganda than Pravda ever was.

 

SurveyUSA March 2009 Release (all conducted March 20-22 among 600 adults):

Alabama:

47% Approve (-1)
47% Disapprove (+2)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1042b5f1-c12e-43e1-8dad-cd1c644903e3

California:

67% Approve (+4)
28% Disapprove (-5)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c6eaaf21-aa2b-4f1b-83ac-50563d5bc60c

Iowa:

57% Approve (-6)
40% Disapprove (+8)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e79ed495-b7ab-414e-b851-17be9c2b39d7

Kansas:

55% Approve (+1)
40% Disapprove (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=14750682-5826-481c-a4e4-f6ed11910ca8

Kentucky:

56% Approve (-1)
38% Disapprove (+1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=06788390-97c9-4604-adb0-d121c387690e

Massachusetts:

68% Approve (+2)
26% Disapprove (-3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=dd2c51d3-a7f3-4d98-afaf-293d9b4ca26a

Minnesota:

61% Approve (-1)
32% Disapprove (nc)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=daff7ebe-0483-464b-b259-4f3989dddc6b

Missouri:

57% Approve (+6)
39% Disapprove (-4)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=77dfc060-a0ce-4bcb-b16c-33ca3cea4cf9

New Mexico:

61% Approve (+2)
35% Disapprove (+1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=abafb949-e911-48ac-acac-6d99b6f87523

New York:

72% Approve (+2)
23% Disapprove (-2)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=564b22a9-49c5-46bd-894d-bcc297f27923

Oregon:

62% Approve (+1)
31% Disapprove (-1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=146a9814-db58-4923-ae31-dd251a944a3a

Virginia:

55% Approve (+1)
35% Disapprove (-7)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=052effc4-d100-4392-a920-43b1f646d876

Washington:

62% Approve (-2)
34% Disapprove (+2)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a7421118-21b0-44b1-adf4-831673fb3a1d

Wisconsin:

53% Approve (-7)
42% Disapprove (+5)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0b21a806-01a4-45e8-8d6c-ab64982d89f7

Hillary Clinton (Secretary of State) - CNN/Opinion Research, March 12-15:

71% Approve
23% Disapprove

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/03/clinton_has_rob.html

PS:

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

60% Excellent/Good (+5)
36% Fair/Poor (nc)

http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/download/2009/0325/19009605.pdf

California - Public Policy Institute of CA:

Adults:

71% Approve
20% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

Likely Voters:

63% Approve
28% Disapprove

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, March 2009. Includes 2,004 adults, 1,525 registered voters, and 987 likely voters. Interviews took place March 10–17, 2009. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±2%.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0309.pdf

Texas (Texas Tech):

44% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://lubbockonline.com/stories/032609/loc_414533490.shtml

I live in Obamaworld. lolz.

DC APPROVAL POLL PLZ.

So he goes up in some states in SUSA but down in other states, and I really can't see any connection between the states either. Random.

I would've thought Hillary's approval would be closer to Obama's than that.

Huh? Why has Iowa dropped so much?

Like I said, some of these are just really random, like Missouri went way up. You'd think it would be the opposite since you know, he lost the state. I have no idea why Iowa is dropping that much in a state he won by 10 points.

Connecticut (Research 2000):

69% Favorable
22% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from March 23 through March 25, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/3/25/CT/275

SUSA really isn't a good enough pollster to put so much stock in movements like those.

Iowa and Wisconsin are really odd, also Kentucky on the other hand.

Wisconsin went from 70% to 53% in 2 months ...

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Wisconsin and Iowa would seem very similar. Until they see real campaigning they don't seem very partisan. People there start making up their minds when the campaigning gets serious; until then they want leaders to govern. It's just as well.

Slight uptick for Obama on Rasmussen today:

58% Approve (+2)
41% Disapprove (-2)

Rasmussen bump seems to be only coming from Republicans(up to 29%) so I assume it is just a bad sample, as Obama is still under 50% with Indies.

Gallup's at 60/31 today, probably the closest it's ever been to Rasmussen.

South Carolina (Crantford & Associates, March 17, 1.382 voters, MoE=2.6%):

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 44%
Not Sure: 7%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Sanford?

Favorable: 40%
Unfavorable: 53%
Not Sure: 7%

Do you agree or disagree with Governor Sanford's efforts to try and stop President Obama's economic stimulus package from being spent in South Carolina?

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 53%
Not Sure: 10%

http://www.thestate.com/politics/story/721273.html

58-40 (nc, -1) today

Iiiinteresting numbers.

Yeah, but unfortunately done for the SC Democratic Senate Caucus ...

New USAToday/Gallup poll (March 27-29):

64% Approve
30% Disapprove

Gallup Daily Tracking (also March 27-29):

60% Approve (nc)
30% Disapprove (-1)

New Washington Post/ABC News poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president ?

66% Approve
29% Disapprove

Changing topics, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Michelle Obama ?

76% Favorable
16% Unfavorable

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Mar. 26-29, 2009, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults including landline and cell phone-only respondents. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_033109.html?hpid=topnews

from the same poll:

3. Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?

                Right     Wrong     No
              direction   track   opinion 
3/29/09          42        57        1
2/22/09          31        67        2
1/16/09          19        78        3
12/14/08         15        82        3
10/25/08 LV      13        85        2
10/11/08 RV       8        90        2

Obama taking the "steering wheel" and axing capitalist failures is probably not a bad thing for his polling numbers.

Rasmussen today:

59% Approve (+1)
39% Disapprove (-1)

First time below 40% since March 4 ...

38% Strongly Approve (nc)
27% Strongly Disapprove (-3)

"That’s the first time his Approval Index rating has reached double digits since the first week in March."

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It's because he is now at 32% among Republicans after being in the low 20's for the past month. Hard to tell if this is lasting change or just an outlier.

Gallup Down:

Approve 59(-1)
Disapprove 30(nc)

Seems to me that Rasmussen must have a clear outlier if these two have the same approval as Gallup has been traditionally a few points higher than Rasmussen.

First Gallup under 60? :/

No, it happened once before, in Mid-February I think ...

......................................................................................

Diageo Hotline (March 26-29, 800 Registered Voters):

63% Approve
31% Disapprove

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/FDDiageoHotlinePoll_release033109.pdf

Democracy Corps (March 25-29, 1000 Likely Voters):

58% Approve
34% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/download.php?attachment=dc10032909fq4.pdf

SurveyUSA now supports the Crantford & Associates poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Sanford is doing as Governor?

41% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa7fe67e-60d1-4167-999c-fc2f6dbda8cd

Not so hot numbers for the "great Republican rising star in 2012" ...

The first stage of ruin is DENIAL.

... I don't have a drinking problem; I can quit drinking at any time.

... Cancer? Not me!

... This pitcher with a high ERA or batter now hitting .240 is on the brink of pulling out of a slump.

... I can still make the minimum payment.

... I don't need no book-learnin'. I'll show that teacher yet!

... The President will yet make a fool of himself.

Wow! The citizens of South Carolina who suffer through a recession actually prefer help from the federal goverment, rather than political grandstanding from their governor.

Knock me down with a feather. 

So who's willing to bet the Democrats won't run anyone serious and the next governor of South Carolina will be Sanford 2.0?

Seemingly, an outlier given the shift from March 31 to April 2:

Approve 56% (-3); Disapprove 44% (+5) [Strongly approve 35% (-3); Strongly Disapprove 30% (+3)

Dave

Remember too, that Rasmussen's new April partisan targets will undoubtedly shift the numbers a bit, and I believe today's sample was the first sample with the new targets (even though it could have been yesterday):

Dems 38.7% (40.8%)
Reps 33.2% (33.6%)
Indys 28.1% (25.6%)

"Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 40.1% Democrats, 33.1% Republicans, and 26.7% unaffiliated."

He uses the average of the previous three months, not just the preceding month.

Sorry, I wasn't being clear there.  Still, it will affect the underlying numbers, somewhat.

Connecticut (Quinnipiac University):

71% Approve (+4)
22% Disapprove (-1)

From March 26 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,181 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1283

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics:

58% Approve (-5)
32% Disapprove (+6)

Polling was conducted by telephone March 31 - April 1, 2009, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/040209_FNCPoll.pdf

South Dakota (Research 2000/DailyKos):

47% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 South Dakota Poll was conducted from March 30 through April 1, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/1/SD/280

I've just seen this on DKos now, i'm pretty suprised that Obama only have a net +2 in South Dakota. I know it went to McCain by +10 points, but still.

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Now add South Dakota, with 3EV. 

The biggest states in electoral votes for which there are no polls are Maryland, Indiana, Colorado, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.

Well, actually there was a Maryland poll, but it was conducted January 5-9, before Obama was sworn in as President.

The results from this Gonzales Research survey:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President-elect Barack Obama is handling his transition?

80% Approve
11% Disapprove

http://www.garesearch.com/Surveys/Maryland_Media_Poll_January_2009.htm

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That's what an 80% approval rating looks like in Maryland. Of course I figure that Maryland would be about 70%, and I don't qualify as a pollster. But I still have to go with this:

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What people predict about the baseball season around April Fool's Day will mean nothing during the World Series.

Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly ARD Deutschland-Trend by Infratest-dimap (conducted March 30-31, among 1.000 Germans, MoE=3%):

80% Approve
6% Disapprove

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"With Obama as President, the US is on the right way again":

89% Yes

"I´m happy that Obama visits Germany":

82% Yes

"With Obama as President, the US is a country that we can trust":

78% Yes

"Obama's first months in office have surprised me in a positive way":

72% Yes

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend592.html

"Would you want Obama to father your daughter's child?"

94% Yes

"Do you approve of Obama's blond hair and blue eyes?"

88% Yes

I doubt Hitler's approval ratings were ever as high as Obama's. The most the Nazi Party ever got was like 44%.

Yep, and German-Americans voted overwhelmingly for Willkie and Dewey to protest the war against Germany. Kind of sad and scary at the same time.

Hitler's approvals at the peak of his popularity, 1935-6, were probably well into the upper 80s. Not that anybody polled, of course.

They aren't so gullible as they were seventy years ago. They aren't the psychological primitives that Sigmund Freud exposed -- the sorts of people who couldn't recognize what a fraud Hitler was -- anymore. They are no longer the people that one can most lead with a manual that might as well have been titled "How to control people through deception and misplaced pride" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mein_Kampf).  

I'd be more scared of the Germans if they admired Dubya and loathed Obama. Wouldn't you?

Most definitely!