Talk Elections

DuPage, as you probably know, is the ultimate Collar County and has been a GOP bastion since... well... the party's formation. The last Democratic presidential candidate to take it was Franklin Pierce. In 1852.

However, I am predicting an Obama win. Consider that Kerry ended up winning 45 percent of the county's vote; the best showing of any Democrat since the 1850s. Obama himself is quite popular in the area. And if the Tribune's endorsement will change a significant number of votes anywhere, it should be here.

Agree or disagree?

a close friend of mine lives there and believes Obama will JUST fall over the line.

It'll be close... I'd give Obama a 45% chance of winning it.

DuPage was one of McCain's best counties in IL's Super Tuesday primary. But Obama still managed to get more votes than McCain. I think Obama can only win the county by a very small margin, if he gets 62-65% in IL - which is unlikely.

  I'm in DuPage and I think it will be pretty close.  I think that Obama will pull it out by 1 or 2 percentage points, but it will be extremely close.  Kerry did get 45% here, which capped a lengthy (since 1980 or so) period of Democrats consistently scoring a few points higher each presidential election.  If it wasn't Obama I'd say no--wait 4 more years.

Ill-Ind

Given the (D) trend, Obama's home-state advantage, and what the overall national margin will likely be, yes. Which would be awesome, given that I've spent 17 of my 18 years living there. But I doubt he'll win my area of the county :(

That Obama winning that county is even possible is a nice little summary of everything that's wrong with him, and why he'll likely be a lousy President.

I bet Obama carries it.

Yes. I am well-connected to DuPage County and I'd give it a good chance of going to Obama.

So he is too conservative? Likes the upper middle class?

Obama should win, but it'll probably be very close.  I'm kind of unsure of where the state stands right now, though -- if Obama stays in the 50s, McCain should be able to win.

I don't know if I'm the first person to say this, but who cares?

In 04 it was 7.18% more GOP then the national average.  A 7.18% margin on the national level is easily possible.  The county was trending Democratic (even without Obama) and the added bonus of Obama's home state.  Yes he wins it.

In the end it wasn't even close.
55-44 or 45.000 votes.

Fareed Zakaria said it best about the white suburbanites: after eight years of W, they feel that their money are safe with the Democrats but their values are threatened by the Republicans.