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Title: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on October 21, 2008, 12:20:06 PM New Poll: North Carolina President by Other Source on 2008-10-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3720081020106)
Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, I: 2%, U: 5% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/civitas-nc-poll-obama-maintains-small-lead) Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: TheGlobalizer on October 21, 2008, 12:21:44 PM The 2% swing to McCain with leaners is notable.
Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: TheresNoMoney on October 21, 2008, 12:22:20 PM The 2% swing to McCain with leaners is notable. Undecideds will break for McCain. Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 21, 2008, 12:23:25 PM Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain.
Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: TheGlobalizer on October 21, 2008, 12:24:01 PM Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain. That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA. Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on October 21, 2008, 12:25:50 PM Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain. That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA. THey didn't in 2004 the went to Kerry. Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 21, 2008, 12:29:40 PM Wishfull thinking on the leaners... since in polls that represents a handful of people. The problem for McCain is that, even with a small lead in NC, ground game operations are not comparable. Combined with what appears to be a massive lead in early voting... and McCain needs to be up at least 3 on election day.
Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Stranger in a strange land on October 21, 2008, 12:30:58 PM The 2% swing to McCain with leaners is notable. Undecideds will break for McCain. duh, McCain is white Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 21, 2008, 12:32:59 PM Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain. That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA. THey didn't in 2004 the went to Kerry. The last minute deciders broke to Kerry, but that's to be expected against an incumbent. The polling suggested a Bush victory of 8% or so and he won by 13%. I know the polling was within the margin of error, though. Obama very well may win North Carolina, but if he's still polling under 50% then his chances become slimmer. At this point I'd say Virginia is lean Obama. NC is still a tossup or slight Obama. Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on October 21, 2008, 12:37:35 PM Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain. That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA. THey didn't in 2004 the went to Kerry. The last minute deciders broke to Kerry, but that's to be expected against an incumbent. The polling suggested a Bush victory of 8% or so and he won by 13%. I know the polling was within the margin of error, though. Obama very well may win North Carolina, but if he's still polling under 50% then his chances become slimmer. At this point I'd say Virginia is lean Obama. NC is still a tossup or slight Obama. I agree, I still say Obama wins NC between .1% to 2% Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 21, 2008, 12:40:29 PM Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain. That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA. THey didn't in 2004 the went to Kerry. The last minute deciders broke to Kerry, but that's to be expected against an incumbent. The polling suggested a Bush victory of 8% or so and he won by 13%. I know the polling was within the margin of error, though. Obama very well may win North Carolina, but if he's still polling under 50% then his chances become slimmer. At this point I'd say Virginia is lean Obama. NC is still a tossup or slight Obama. I agree, I still say Obama wins NC between .1% to 2% I will say that turnout appears to be huge in the Triangle area. I was visiting Chapel Hill yesterday and the Obamabots were out in full force. They had a concert right by the polling place for Obama (James Taylor) and there was a huge turnout. I'm worried about NC for McCain. Dole is all but finished. Title: Re: NC: Civitas(R): Obama up by 3%, up by 5% without lean voters. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on October 21, 2008, 12:45:00 PM Obama needs to poll constantly above 50% because they will break hard for McCain. That's my suspicion, especially in NC/VA. THey didn't in 2004 the went to Kerry. The last minute deciders broke to Kerry, but that's to be expected against an incumbent. The polling suggested a Bush victory of 8% or so and he won by 13%. I know the polling was within the margin of error, though. Obama very well may win North Carolina, but if he's still polling under 50% then his chances become slimmer. At this point I'd say Virginia is lean Obama. NC is still a tossup or slight Obama. I agree, I still say Obama wins NC between .1% to 2% I will say that turnout appears to be huge in the Triangle area. I was visiting Chapel Hill yesterday and the Obamabots were out in full force. They had a concert right by the polling place for Obama (James Taylor) and there was a huge turnout. I'm worried about NC for McCain. Dole is all but finished. This past sunday we drove by one of the polling spot and there we cars lined up for about a half a mile from the polling spot. They said on the news that people were in line for over 3 hours. |