Talk Elections

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Survey USA on 2008-10-05

Summary: D: 53%, R: 40%, I: 5%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a8255cdc-82a4-4a10-8cf2-063b666e514c&c=24)

Topline Numbers

Obama 53%

McCain 40%

Other 5%

Not Sure 2%

Quite a headline from SurveyUSA: "In New Hampshire, Obama May Out-Perform Every Democratic Presidential Candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964"

Yikes.

What a huge swing NH experienced...

I was looking at the internals. I do think Republicans are underrepresented in this poll. But who knows who will show up.

Out of 3 black voters they interviewed, 2 are voting for McCain and 1 is undecided.

What is the breakdown? Republicans account for about 31% of registered voters in NH.

26% Republican
34% Democrat
39% Independent

This isn't too far out of line with what I'd expect if the magical "McCain is N.H.'s third senator" factor is overblown.

(edited because, no, a 13-point margin is excessive, but I don't think N.H. is as close as others do.)

Then yeah, Republicans are probably undersampled in this poll. There is much more enthuisiasm on the Democratic side, but not an 8% margin.

Third consecutive poll to show Obama up by double digits

remember the primary. That's all I'm gonna say.

......however, there were several dynamics at work in the primary that aren't at work here: for one thing Hillary's win came largely from the margin she racked up among early voters, who voted during the "Hillary is inevitable" phase. This time around, early voting, if anything, will likely benefit Obama. Also, if John McCain cries a week before the election, he'll be laughed out of the race. However, if Sarah Palin cries a week before the election...see where I'm going with this? ;)

You're comparing applies and oranges. Hillary won the primary because all the undecideds broke her way in the final two days.

Obama will win NH comfortably, by 5%-10%.

Of course, but the primary was a bit different. Because of the high Obama lead, many Independents voted in the GOP primary, because they thought their vote would have a bigger impact there. Not to mention cry-baby Hillary, who used to tighten her grip on the state's Democrats a few days before the vote. But what stands out ? Despite all of this Obama still managed to get more votes than McCain in the primaries and there's no reason why this shouldn't be this way in the GE too.

That's not true.

And again, Hillary won the NH primary (by a mere 2.5%) because she won the female vote by double digits and because all the undecideds broke her way in the final two days.

I don't care about NH. Obama can easily substitute Nevada for it.

my other concern about New Hampshire is the Bradley Effect. It seems like there was a Bradley Effect here in the Primary, albeit a small one. Hillary supporters claimed they were undecided, which was why it appeared so many undecideds broke her way. If there's anywhere in the country I expect to see a Bradley Effect, it's in the lily white states of New England, where black candidates are still a novelty and where outward displays of racism are most socially unacceptable, and where paradoxically Obama is most susceptible to "othering".

Republican 26% (28%): McCain 84% (88%); Obama 12% (6%)

Democrat 34% (30%): McCain 8% (20%); Obama 89% (75%)

Independent 39% (40%): McCain 39% (41%); Obama 48% (44%)

Conservative 25% (25%): McCain 79% (70%); Obama 12% (22%)

Moderate 44% (51%): McCain 37% (38%); Obama 58% (51%)

Liberal 19% (15%): McCain 5% (24%); Obama 90% (71%)

(denotes SUSA, Feb. 26-28, 2008)

New Hampshire is not a racist state, there will be very little "Bradley Effect" here.