Talk Elections

New Poll: Minnesota President by Survey USA on 2008-10-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=2720081001019)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0782fede-2757-4c86-9479-f84f02afc9fb)

Topline Numbers

McCain 47%

Obama 46%

Other 4%

Not Sure 3%



...I wonder if this will get many posts...

McCain is now winning Minnesota. What happened?

Whoa.  Seriously?

Who is the ONLY pollster ever to have McCain up here?

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=27

Something else worth noting: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?fips=24

SUSA may not be ARG, but if they're giving outliers, they're outliers.

lol

I'm tempted to say outlier but, with the exception of CNN/Time, this is within the margin of error of all the polls coming out of Minnesota for the past month.

St. Paul Convention bounce?

Rasmussen released a poll showing Obama up by 8 recently.

Minnesota is closer than it used to be, but the internals on this one are wacky IMO.

I'll admit Minnesota has tightened though I'm at a loss on why exactly. Rasmussen said Obama +8 last poll so I'll wait for another one from them.

I believe it about like I believe North Carolina, but this is still a fine excuse to go home and spend some sweet quality time with my wife.

I guess I have a stop or two to make on the way home.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.  SUSA is getting more and more ridiculous.  They seem to fluctuate around a 10% accuracy mark.  I think the average of SUSA polls, since they include no weighting, might have validity. But any poll SUSA conducts that strongly looks like an outlier, I strongly feel, is almost no different than a Zogby Interactive.

()

I've been saying this for a bit as well.  SUSA *never* has a boring poll and that, considering their volume of polls, is suspicious since the more exciting pollsters get a lot more business.

I was just humoring Spade with my initial comment, I don't think McCain has a shot in hell to win Minnesota.

Take a look at the companion Senate poll for a good laugh.

Obama is leading nationally by 5 or 6... and losing in Minnesota.


Right.

For those who are too lazy, their senate poll has:
Coleman 43
Franken 33


Yeah.

yeah...

I hate joining a partisan gang bang on a poll showing not in my favor, but I've been bashing SUSA pro-Obama polls too.

lololol

Where has the Democratic primary SurveyUSA gone?

Who is this imposter?

The whole bunch of Senate polls from MN just confuse me.  If there's a third party candidate who has frequently been pulling double digits in some polls, how come several of the other polling firms only list Franken and Coleman as choices?  Do they really expect anything close to an accurate result?

The jump in Barkley's support isn't really much of a surprise though.  The poll was conducted in the middle of the bailout failure/resurrection, and I can see a good chunk of voters becoming disenchanted with both the Democrats and the Republicans from that. 

no, but even if this poll is off 5 points, if McCain is running a couple of points better in MN (-4) than he is nationally (-6), then McCain has a shot to win the EV if he can pull to within a couple of points nationally.

Their MN polling is awful. Hopefully they will have a turnaround in their next polls or will look really foolish on Nov. 5.

yeah SUSA's methodology is probably messed up.

Hmongs for McCain?

If this poll is true, pigs will fly on Nov 4.

Would be nice.  If true.

I will say this... McCain carrying MN and Obama carrying IN would make for one hell of an amusing election night. ;)

That just might explode the red state/blue state paradigm.

Same with Obama carrying Utah and McCain carrying New York.

Outlier

Odd way-too Republican MN polls also appeared in the late stages of 2004. I think Mason-Dixon had Bush up 6 three weeks before the election or something (too lazy to look it up). May be something with the way the state behaves in polls, ie with when people of different politics make up their mind (although I haven't a clue what, exactly), just as Michigan and New Jersey (and Germany, big time!) frequently provide ridiculous too rightwing results early in the campaign.

Republican 30% (31%): McCain 90% (89%); Obama 7% (10%)

Democrat 37% (39%): McCain 11% (10%); Obama 85% (88%)

Independent 21% (16%): McCain 44% (50%); Obama 39% (41%)

Conservative 31% (30%): McCain 83% (85%); Obama 10% (12%)

Moderate 43% (39%): McCain 36% (38%); Obama 57% (57%)

Liberal 15% (16%): McCain 10% (8%); Obama 89% (90%)

Top issue - the economy 62% (55%): McCain 48% (45%); Obama 44% (52%)

(denotes SUSA, Sep. 10-12, 2008)

Lolz

What a joke.

Told you Minnesota was a tossup.

No one thought that Min. was a tossup and no one will.

It is a tossup, but whether you guys want to believe me or not is up to you.

Is it a toss-up with Obama running at +5 to +7 nationwide?

Looking at this poll, apparently so.

Minnesota is certainly a toss-up in a 50/50 race.

You don't believe every poll you see, particularly when it conflicts with the weight of historical evidence, common sense, and other polls of the same state. 

Agree. SUSA has had a very large Republican tilt in Minnesota specifically the whole campaign (both in the Senate and Presidential races). I have no idea why; they don't tend to have any partisan tilt in most states. Maybe they have trouble with rural Democrats?

Well the internals often show that, here McCain is getting over 60% in western Minnesota which is downright laughable and a previous one had McCain winning by double digits in northeastern Minnesota which is even more hilarious. Of course the standard MoE on those sample sizes comes to mind, but it shows in the sample where the problems are.

I think SUSA (and likely other pollsters too due to Lewis' post) just don't know how to sample a state with same day registration.

For Rowan by the way, look it up, the last time Minnesota was more GOP than the national average was 1952 (and even then only marginally.)

SUSA maybe thought Pawlenty is McCain's running mate....

You're going to base that of one poll? Lol. Great analysis skills, champ.

No way.  With Obama up 5-6%, MN is a toss-up?  Don't make me laugh :P

Minnesota is a tossup.

What's kinda funny is that with the Franken internal release, the Senate poll doesn't look as ridiculous as I thought it did.  Does make this poll any more valid, however.

link to the Franken internal release?

Well, in all fairness, I believe the past two MN SurveyUSA polls showed Obama with a narrow lead so it's not based off of one poll.

That being said, MN is not a swing state. McCain better not fall for this.

I think Obama will perform about 5 points better than his national margin.  If Obama beats McCain by 5 nationally, he will beat McCain by 10 in Minnesota.

Coming from an area that straddles the border between "western" and "northeast" Minnesota (I am in MN-7 and about 400 feet from MN-8)... those internals are way off.

McCain may well win in western MN however they define western MN, but it won't be by more than a few points.  The notion that McCain will somehow beat Obama 2-to-1 in western Minnesota is absolutely absurd.  I fully expect Obama to beat Kerry and Gore in western MN and he may very well approach Dukakis levels.

This is because I have a generally good feeling for politics in north-central and northwest Minnesota.

If I go by personal anecdote, it looks even more grim for McCain.  People here think Palin is a joke... things I've heard from strangers:  "yeah, well.. she's not the brightest bulb on the tree" and "she's in way over her head"...

I had one lady say "yeah.. I saw two reporters standing next to eachother and one said 'oh Palin did so well' and the other said 'she was hanging on for dear life'" and then she just laughed and said "she's pretty ridiculous"

Another woman told me "well, at first I really liked her.. and then I started to learn what her positions are... wow... what a kook."

She has become the punch line of a lot of jokes here.

Northern Minnesota and Alaska have a lot of things in common... many of the same issues face us (resource use and management, the outdoors being a huge part of our lives that is woven into our culture, similar flora and fauna and similar weather)... but we look at these issues in a very different way.  Sarah Palin herself is not even a typical Alaskan.  She comes off as a genuinely nice person and a very hard worker... northern Minnesotans can relate to her on her friendliness and warmth... but she really is in way over her head.  We're high information voters here... a familiar accent and a wink at the camera can't make up for her dearth of knowledge of the issues.

I would caution you against taking SUSA's definitions of regions very seriously.  They list their definitions somewhere on their site, and I know that in the states where I have any idea as to the proper definitions of regions, SUSA's are kooky.

11/4 -

Obama - 52%
McCain - 47%
Others/Irrelevants - 1%

The other weird thing is that Obama started to run ads in the Twin Cities only as of yesterday.

http://kstp.com/article/stories/S605498.shtml?cat=89

He's nervous.

McCain's been running quite a few ads here, haven't seen anything post-primary from Obama. Nothing wrong with him diverting some money from Michigan.

AHAHAHA

HAHAHAAHA

AHAHAHA HAAAAAA

How are the respective campaigns ground games looking in MN?

If it really is as close as some of the recent polls indicate it may come down to which candidate can get their voters to the polls. Although as some of you have noted turnout historically is generally high, and the same-day registration makes this less significant perhaps than in other states.

No doubt it would not hurt for Obama to start spending in MN, since McCain has owned the airwaves for a few months now, and solidifying this state will make it significantly more difficult for McCain to reach 270.

This is one of the few states where McCain has outspent Obama, so that's likely part of it. Good to see that Obama is putting some resources into the state to shore it up.

No.

Regional definitions are here. (http://www.surveyusa.com/SurveyUSARegionalDefinitions091506.htm)  In particular, for MN the "twin cities" region include several suburban districts along with the cities themselves.

It looks like in 2004 the "Twin Cities " as a whole went only 54-46 for Kerry by SurveyUSA's definition. 

Obama is the hands down winner. He has 24 campaign offices to McCain's 6. He spent a lot of time and money building up a strong network for the caucus, while McCain just ignored the state. No comparison.