Talk Elections

New Poll: Alabama President by Survey USA on 2008-09-17 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=120080917019)

Summary: D: 34%, R: 64%, I: 1%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d2cb304b-ffb7-4302-a18e-e9cd6221ecfa&c=42)

Topline Numbers

McCain 64%

Obama 34%

Other 1%

Undecided 1%

Looks about right, maybe Obama will get 38%. Obama will receive about 15-20% of Whites in the Deep South, mabe 10% in MS. He'll win 95% of African-Americans though and they'll make up about 25% of the AL electorate.

While the polling shows McCain receiving close to 65% of the vote in Alabama, I wouldn't be surprised if McCain received 70% of the vote or more on Election Night. Alabama is still one of the capitals of racial tension in this country.

Voting wise.

But last time I checked NJ has more racial hate crimes per capita then Alabama.

You might want to edit that

Alabama hardly considers anything to be a race crime, too.

Yes, because the idea of a "hate crime" is silly in and of itself.

You have a point there, but surely you can agree then that states aren't comparable if they have separate definitions and separate methods of reporting, can't you?

Can't argue with that.

I don't see McCain doing better than Bush in Alabama. That's just silly.

Bush wasn't running against a black. Unless black turnout is way up, I wouldn't rule out the idea that he could do slightly better than Bush.

McCain is a pretty poor fit for the state, but Obama is probably the worst fit for the state in any election ever.

Lincoln 1860

64-34 no. Not with heavy black turnout across the south, and everywhere else. McCain, himself, is not a very good fit for the state, but Palin could help him break 60% again, although it's possible Bush overperformed here in 2004.

Republican 42% (40%): McCain 92% (93%); Obama 7% (5%)

Democrat 35% (35%): McCain 20% (21%); Obama 78% (71%)

Independent 17% (16%): McCain 75% (74%); Obama 22% (23%)

Conservative 45% (44%): McCain 88% (89%); Obama 11% (9%)

Moderate 27% (28%): McCain 57% (49%); Obama 40% (43%)

Liberal 9% (13%): McCain 18% (46%); Obama 79% (51%)

Top issue - the economy 60% (35%): McCain 62% (61%); Obama 36% (35%)

(denotes SUSA, Apr. 11-13, 2008)

     Not surprising, though pleasant nevertheless.

I think it will be something like 60 - 39.  I expect black turnout to increase a bit throughout the South.  Obama will get the same percentage of white vote as Kerry - no more no less and with black voter turnout up a notch, McCain doesn't reach the 62 or 63 percent that Bush garnered.

I'd say it will be the same effect as we will see in Mississippi, Georgia, and South Carolina.  Not so in Louisiana simply because there aren't as many blacks in that state post Katrina.  I think those bottom line numbers stay the same as in 2004.

Just my humble opinion.  Doesn't matter of course as none of those states flip, but gives us political junkies something to chew on.

Why are they still polling Alabama?

Because some dumbass television station is willing to throw away their money on an Alabama poll.  Don't ask me why.

Whites in Alabama and Mississippi are already voting 80-85% Republican on the OPresidential level anyway, so the room to go up is very little.