Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2008, 11:42:50 PM



Title: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2008, 11:42:50 PM
New Poll: Oklahoma President by Survey USA on 2008-09-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4020080907019)

Summary: D: 32%, R: 65%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=799f4cf7-1c58-4e43-a0ce-3f714041c1a5)



Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: True Democrat on September 08, 2008, 11:59:02 PM
Remember when Clinton was going to make this "close."

LOLOLOL


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: crazy jimmie on September 09, 2008, 12:00:35 AM
Remember when Clinton was going to make this "close."

LOLOLOL


Believe me, Hillary Clinton would have made Oklahoma an extremely competitive state..


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: memphis on September 09, 2008, 12:04:19 AM
Let the mocking of BushOklahoma commence.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 09, 2008, 12:05:31 AM
Remember when Clinton was going to make this "close."

LOLOLOL

Remember when some people argued he might get to 38-40% here because of U of Oklahoma and Oklahoma St?


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Vsanto5 on September 09, 2008, 12:06:25 AM
I wonder if people there think Obama is a muslim, they should do a poll on that sometime.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 09, 2008, 12:08:38 AM
Remember when Clinton was going to make this "close."

LOLOLOL

Remember when some people argued he might get to 38-40% here because of U of Oklahoma and Oklahoma St?
No.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: crazy jimmie on September 09, 2008, 12:09:35 AM
Hillary would have probably lost Oklahoma but only by 3 or 4 points.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 09, 2008, 12:14:03 AM
Remember when Clinton was going to make this "close."

LOLOLOL

Remember when some people argued he might get to 38-40% here because of U of Oklahoma and Oklahoma St?
No.


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that he'll be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly unreasonable.

Need more polls to get a trend. Remember that in 2004 there were also 2 polls that showed Kerry trailing by just 12%. Anyway, I could see Obama getting 35-38% in OK.

There is no chance that Barack Obama will get more than 38% of the vote in Oklahoma this Election. If Obama does manage to get more than 38%, there is something wrong with the Oklahoma electorate. It goes against the electoral grain of wood in Oklahoma, if a liberal African-American Senator running for President of the United States manages to get more than 38%.

Or its just a great year for the Democrats as I think it will be.



Well, 35-38% .. it seemed to me like people thought he could do well in Oklahoma for a Democrat in this thread. I guess your memory is just pretty bad.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: phk on September 09, 2008, 12:14:42 AM
I could see Clinton getting like 43% max here.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: crazy jimmie on September 09, 2008, 12:15:50 AM
I could see Clinton getting like 43% max here.

No, 48%


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 09, 2008, 12:18:02 AM
Remember when Clinton was going to make this "close."

LOLOLOL

Remember when some people argued he might get to 38-40% here because of U of Oklahoma and Oklahoma St?
No.


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that he'll be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly unreasonable.

Need more polls to get a trend. Remember that in 2004 there were also 2 polls that showed Kerry trailing by just 12%. Anyway, I could see Obama getting 35-38% in OK.

There is no chance that Barack Obama will get more than 38% of the vote in Oklahoma this Election. If Obama does manage to get more than 38%, there is something wrong with the Oklahoma electorate. It goes against the electoral grain of wood in Oklahoma, if a liberal African-American Senator running for President of the United States manages to get more than 38%.

Or its just a great year for the Democrats as I think it will be.



Well, 35-38% .. it seemed to me like people thought he could do well in Oklahoma for a Democrat in this thread. I guess your memory is just pretty bad.
Well, even so, 35-38% isn't so far off from the 32% he's currently polling. I don't think he has a shot at doing any better than Kerry (especially not with the Palin pick), though.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: CultureKing on September 09, 2008, 12:20:24 AM

No, 40%


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Alcon on September 09, 2008, 12:21:40 AM
Well, 35-38% .. it seemed to me like people thought he could do well in Oklahoma for a Democrat in this thread. I guess your memory is just pretty bad.

I don't see any mentions of U of Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in there.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Aizen on September 09, 2008, 12:32:36 AM
What an absolute joke of a state


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: crazy jimmie on September 09, 2008, 12:33:14 AM

No, they just saw through Obama's nonsense. It would have been Clinton country.

It is one of the better states!


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 09, 2008, 12:43:23 AM
I agree with James. It's clear that Oklahoma would be a swing state in this election if the Democrats were to nominate Hillary. That state and a few others. I could see this as a plausible map if they had been smart enough to nominate her:

(
)

She would've already had the election won, James!




Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: crazy jimmie on September 09, 2008, 12:46:31 AM
I agree with James. It's clear that Oklahoma would be a swing state in this election if the Democrats were to nominate Hillary. That state and a few others. I could see this as a plausible map if they had been smart enough to nominate her:

(
)

She would've already had the election won, James!




No, no no. IA and WI would still be Clinton but narrower then Obama vs McVain.

MO and KY should be DEM on this map.. and TN grey.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Eraserhead on September 09, 2008, 02:47:33 AM
I agree with James. It's clear that Oklahoma would be a swing state in this election if the Democrats were to nominate Hillary. That state and a few others. I could see this as a plausible map if they had been smart enough to nominate her:

(
)

She would've already had the election won, James!




No, no no. IA and WI would still be Clinton but narrower then Obama vs McVain.

MO and KY should be DEM on this map.. and TN grey.

LOL


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on September 09, 2008, 02:51:59 AM
I agree with James. It's clear that Oklahoma would be a swing state in this election if the Democrats were to nominate Hillary. That state and a few others. I could see this as a plausible map if they had been smart enough to nominate her:

(
)

She would've already had the election won, James!




Oklahoma red? Heck, why not Texas. I mean after all, politically, Oklahoma is basically Texas without the parts that vote Democratic.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Cubby on September 09, 2008, 03:12:58 AM
I agree with James. It's clear that Oklahoma would be a swing state in this election if the Democrats were to nominate Hillary. That state and a few others. I could see this as a plausible map if they had been smart enough to nominate her:

(
)

She would've already had the election won, James!


Is that a joke? It must be, a map showing Oklahoma more Democrat than Connecticut and Wisconsin is either very old or very wrong.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: The Ex-Factor on September 09, 2008, 04:29:51 AM
I suppose the TV stations in Oklahoma need something to spend their money on.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Ebowed on September 09, 2008, 04:33:50 AM

No, they just saw through Obama's nonsense. It would have been Clinton country.

If there are honestly a good 20% of voters in a state who would have voted for Clinton, but choose McCain over Obama, can you really attribute that to anything other than subtle racism and scare tactics?

I was talking to an old classmate who now resides in Alabama the other day who referred to Obama as "not only liberal but black and formerly Muslim and has one year of experience in the Senate."  There is no getting through to these people.  (I didn't bother correcting him on the Muslim charge, by the way, because is he really going to change his mind?)


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Gustaf on September 09, 2008, 04:41:43 AM
Let the mocking of BushOklahoma commence.

It's ObamaOkla...no, wait, it's McCainOklahoma now. ;)


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on September 09, 2008, 08:06:18 AM
Yeah, even Clinton wouldn't have made this close.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Sam Spade on September 09, 2008, 09:13:16 AM
2004 redux... ugh


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 09, 2008, 09:25:58 AM
It's kind of sad. Oklahoma used to have one of the strongest Socialist parties in the country, and now look at it. Ugh.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 09, 2008, 09:30:16 AM
why are we polling and discussing OK?


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: crazy jimmie on September 09, 2008, 11:28:33 AM

No, they just saw through Obama's nonsense. It would have been Clinton country.

If there are honestly a good 20% of voters in a state who would have voted for Clinton, but choose McCain over Obama, can you really attribute that to anything other than subtle racism and scare tactics?

I was talking to an old classmate who now resides in Alabama the other day who referred to Obama as "not only liberal but black and formerly Muslim and has one year of experience in the Senate."  There is no getting through to these people.  (I didn't bother correcting him on the Muslim charge, by the way, because is he really going to change his mind?)

Well I do not buy the stuff that Obama is a muslim, that is absolute muslim.

But I think the fact that Clinton is a strong woman, relatively moderate, along with having many racist supporters would bring that state pretty close.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: kevinatcausa on September 09, 2008, 12:57:57 PM
If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2008, 01:04:38 PM
If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

The problem is that he could have also gained in states like OH and PA. Even if Palin didn't help in FL I still think Mccain has a good shot of winning it in the end. OH was more 50/50 but it seems like it is slipping away. VA might be a place where Obama could target even more heavily. The good thing is that CO seems to have solidified for Obama although I would like to see some more polls.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 09, 2008, 01:22:50 PM
If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

I'd guess that McCain has gained less than 5 points in some of the no-shot-in-hell states, like New York and my own Massachusetts.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on September 11, 2008, 05:35:13 PM
This score is pretty much what I'm expecting after further investigation, and frankly, some common sense.  I think Obama will be hard pressed to win any counties in Oklahoma.  I have a bad feeling McCain may shut Obama out of Oklahoma like Bush did to Kerry.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Democratic Hawk on September 13, 2008, 10:33:18 AM
Republican 46% (43%): McCain 89% (96%); Obama 10% (4%)

Democrat 43% (40%): McCain 42% (32%); Obama 55% (68%)

Independent 8% (16%): McCain 56% (66%); Obama 32% (34%)

Conservative 44% (43%): McCain 90% (88%); Obama 9% (12%)

Moderate 33% (44%): McCain 49% (56%); Obama 48% (44%)

Liberal 9% (13%): McCain 27% (25%); Obama 70% (75%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)

Top issue - the economy (42%): McCain 61%; Obama 37%


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 13, 2008, 10:45:54 AM
If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

538.com came to the same conclusion. Also probably evidenced by the swing states still polling close and Obama ahead in Colorado.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Dan the Roman on September 13, 2008, 03:24:33 PM
If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

I'd guess that McCain has gained less than 5 points in some of the no-shot-in-hell states, like New York and my own Massachusetts.

I agree on New York. I think Massachusetts is either right in line with the national swing or greater. I have a friend who is working on a legislative race here and their tracking poll has Obama up 47-43 in a district Bush lost 59-41 last time. Again though, that may be the massive Massachusetts undecided number, but I think Massachusetts this year will either swing against the national average(if Obama wins) or much greater than it(if McCain does).

Anyway, if McCain point were gaining more in swing states it would go against every past election both here and abroad. In almost every case of a landslide whether here, Canada, Britain, or Australia, the swing is much smaller in marginal seats and states and largest in safe states of the other party.

For example look at 1988. Dukakis outperformed his national margin in PA, MI, MN, WI, and CA, and PA and CA only went for Bush 50-48. At the same time he only won his home state of Massachusetts 53-47. so there was only a five point difference between PA and MA. If McCain wins by a Bush 88 like margin, most of the swing states will still be close, and almost all of his gains over Bush will likely be concentrated in safe Kerry or Bush states from 2004.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 13, 2008, 05:01:00 PM
Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Dan the Roman on September 13, 2008, 07:21:39 PM
Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?

31st Middlesex, so Winchester and Stoneham. Its an open seat race with Paul Casey retiring.

It was 59-41 in 2004, though the 2006 Governor's race was closer.

49.4% Patrick
40.9% Healey
 8.7%  Mihos
 1.1% Ross


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 13, 2008, 07:49:32 PM
Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?

31st Middlesex, so Winchester and Stoneham. Its an open seat race with Paul Casey retiring.

It was 59-41 in 2004, though the 2006 Governor's race was closer.

49.4% Patrick
40.9% Healey
 8.7%  Mihos
 1.1% Ross


Ah, okay.  McCain doing well in Winchester/Stoneham means something different to me than McCain doing well in Dudley, McCain doing well in Woburn, McCain doing well in Wellesley, or McCain doing well in Plymouth.

I would love for Massachusetts to be close.  Honestly, there is no logical reason for this state to be as safely Democratic as it is.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Dan the Roman on September 13, 2008, 08:11:47 PM
Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?

31st Middlesex, so Winchester and Stoneham. Its an open seat race with Paul Casey retiring.

It was 59-41 in 2004, though the 2006 Governor's race was closer.

49.4% Patrick
40.9% Healey
 8.7%  Mihos
 1.1% Ross


Ah, okay.  McCain doing well in Winchester/Stoneham means something different to me than McCain doing well in Dudley, McCain doing well in Woburn, McCain doing well in Wellesley, or McCain doing well in Plymouth.

I would love for Massachusetts to be close.  Honestly, there is no logical reason for this state to be as safely Democratic as it is.

I honestly would not be shocked to see him do well in Woburn. Patrick lost it after all, and from what I am hearing Obama's numbers seem to be tracking fairly closely with Patrick's. McCain's problem is more that while Obama is heavily under-performing, all of those voters are sitting in the undecided corner rather than going to him.


Title: Re: OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1
Post by: Gustaf on September 14, 2008, 05:24:27 AM
Dan,

Something you sort of mention in one of your later posts is that this goes both ways. McCain was doing surprisingly well in the battlegrounds when he was behind. He is doing worse now that he's ahead. That is to be expected, just as you say. So to me, it isn't really bad news for McCain. It is what we would expect. You'll still see an effect from going up generally. The polls do indicate he won't have to work at defending Florida and Missouri anymore, for instance.