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Title: Historical Post Convention Bounces Post by: zorkpolitics on September 04, 2004, 03:12:34 PM Gallop has been doing polls longer than anyone, so one could say they are the official keepers of the Bounce. So they have put up a table of Bounces back to 1964.
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12919 Although its generally thought that Kerry got about a 3% Bounce this year, by the Gallop Survey, he had a -1% bounce. Kerry was the only candidate to ever get a negative bounce in their surveys. The Gallop site always has their last poll up, the last Gallop Poll had Bush ahead by 3, 50% to 47%, so when the next Gallop poll comes out he will need to expand his lead more than 3% to get a positive bounce. The early surveys (Time, Newsweek, Rasmussen) suggest he will. My guess is Gallop will show Bush 52 Kerry 44 for a net +5 bounce. Title: Re:Historical Post Convention Bounces Post by: PBrunsel on September 04, 2004, 03:17:10 PM Thomas Dewey recieved a steep blow in the polls after his acceptance address in 1948, but Truman got a bit of a bounce. Of course Dewey stayed ahead of Truman the whole time when it came to the polls, but Truman's fire breathing convention speech in 1948 helped him g et a bounce.
Title: Re:Historical Post Convention Bounces Post by: ?????????? on September 07, 2004, 08:20:16 PM I thought McGovern got a negative bounce as well?
Title: Re:Historical Post Convention Bounces Post by: ATFFL on September 07, 2004, 08:25:09 PM I thought McGovern got a negative bounce as well? McGovern stayed flat. Title: Re:Historical Post Convention Bounces Post by: Dr. Cynic on September 08, 2004, 05:22:37 PM Humphrey lost 35 points mid-convention, but gained about sixteen of those points back after hisa acceptance speech.
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