Talk Elections

New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4120080619019)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6d876854-13d5-4f70-b17d-9ea29d0bb4d8)

Obama 48% (-1)
McCain 45% (+6)

Another SUSA poll with strange party ID numbers

LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.

Well, their definition of Portland is ridiculous.  Kerry won it by 11.7% while losing "Rest of State" by 9.4%.

It fits a 3% lead.  Not that I seriously think Obama leads Oregon by only 3%.  Lol summer polling.

I thought he carried Multnomah county by 45 points or so?

Well, Portland isn't actually equal to Multnomah County, and even if it were, Multnomah County isn't 64% of Oregon, as SUSA's sample is.

SUSA's "Portland" (http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_080305.htm) somehow manages to include not only the suburbs, but also the northern Pacific beaches, Salem and parts of the eastern Oregon plains (???).  It's terrible naming.

Oh, I guess that's why.  Thanks for clarifying. :)

Trash poll

LOL at the gender numbers. And party affiliation. SUSA, please stop with the VP matchup polls. You're embarrassing yourself.

SUSA is putting out some wacky polls as of late. Summer polling .. some of these states are all over the map.

Unless, of course, it was good news for Obama in which case you would praise it uncontrolably

The advertisement on SUSA just had Ahmedinejad and Barack together by McCain's Campaign.

And?

Obama is doing worse in OR than he is nationally? Sure, SUSA.

Nope.  Silly poll.  Wake me up after labor day when we start getting some valid numbers,  Some states will be swing states.  States like Oregon and Georgia won't be in that category.

I think it's definitely narrowed since the primary (when Obama was just killing McCain), but not this much.  I would suspect Obama +6 or 7 at this point.

Also, does the party affiliation seem really off to anyone else?  41% Republican and 42% Democratic?  That seems really high for Republicans.

Yes, especially since SUSA is pushy about party affiliation among independents, and the type of voters that should "push" would generally vote Democratic.  That is, a SUSA sample of Oregon should probably be slightly more Democratic than the exit poll, considering the lessened independents.

I learned my lesson about Oregon last cycle, when I was convinced for most of the summer that the state would be competitive.

Not to mention the 41% pro-life and 39% that attend church regularly, both of which seem significantly higher than statewide averages.

yep