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Title: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 17, 2008, 09:11:03 AM New Poll: North Carolina President by Other Source on 2008-06-13 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080613106)
Summary: D: 41%, R: 45%, U: 12% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/n-c-poll-mccain-leads-obama-45-41) *Note* This is a republican base company. Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Adlai Stevenson on June 17, 2008, 10:14:23 AM Perhaps we'll see something along the lines of:
NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENT: 50% (R) McCain 47% (D) Obama 2% (L) Barr Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on June 17, 2008, 10:16:02 AM Stop polling Barr, goddamnit.
Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 17, 2008, 10:18:48 AM Stop polling Barr, goddamnit. Why? He will be on the ballot on Nov. Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: TheresNoMoney on June 17, 2008, 10:20:36 AM Barr will get a good 2%-3% here in New Hampshire.
Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on June 17, 2008, 10:49:10 AM Most of the undecideds will go Republican, so I'm not worried about McCain here in this cycle.
Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 17, 2008, 11:08:12 AM Most of the undecideds will go Republican, so I'm not worried about McCain here in this cycle. What make you think that most of the undecideds will go to McCain? Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Eraserhead on June 17, 2008, 12:39:12 PM Most of the undecideds will go Republican, so I'm not worried about McCain here in this cycle. What make you think that most of the undecideds will go to McCain? He's white. Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 17, 2008, 12:51:45 PM Most of the undecideds will go Republican, so I'm not worried about McCain here in this cycle. What make you think that most of the undecideds will go to McCain? He's white. I don't think racism will play that much of a role in the places where Obama needs to win, if he want to win NC. Like the Triad,Triangle, Charlotte area and the NE part of the state. Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on June 17, 2008, 01:31:29 PM Most of the undecideds will go Republican, so I'm not worried about McCain here in this cycle. What make you think that most of the undecideds will go to McCain? Because they always do in national elections. Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in 2004. Bush lead by 8 in the polls in election day, and won by 13. NC has changed, but not enough that all the undecideds will break for the Democrats. Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 17, 2008, 01:53:52 PM Most of the undecideds will go Republican, so I'm not worried about McCain here in this cycle. What make you think that most of the undecideds will go to McCain? Because they always do in national elections. Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in 2004. Bush lead by 8 in the polls in election day, and won by 13. NC has changed, but not enough that all the undecideds will break for the Democrats. Ok, lets go back and look at the polls. This was the polling avg on election day. Bush: 52 Kerry: 44 Nader: 1 Usure: 3 with a 4% MoE. As we know Bush won NC 56% to 43% right. So that means the polls were 4% off. so that makes the new polling avg, 56%(+4% MoE) Bush, 40%(-4% MoE) Kerry, with 3% unsure. So that means to get the real results, all the unsure had to go to Kerry. So that would make it a 56%-43% race. Right? Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 17, 2008, 02:06:07 PM Most of the undecideds will go Republican, so I'm not worried about McCain here in this cycle. What make you think that most of the undecideds will go to McCain? Because they always do in national elections. Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in 2004. Bush lead by 8 in the polls in election day, and won by 13. NC has changed, but not enough that all the undecideds will break for the Democrats. Ok, lets go back and look at the polls. This was the polling avg on election day. Bush: 52 Kerry: 44 Nader: 1 Usure: 3 with a 4% MoE. As we know Bush won NC 56% to 43% right. So that means the polls were 4% off. so that makes the new polling avg, 56%(+4% MoE) Bush, 40%(-4% MoE) Kerry, with 3% unsure. So that means to get the real results, all the unsure had to go to Kerry. So that would make it a 56%-43% race. Right? Also according to the Exit poll for NC in 2004. People who made up their mind who to vote for the day of the election. 71% voted for Kerry and People who made up their mind who to vote for 3day before the election 57% voted for Kerry, so it looks like the unsure, break toward the democratic candidate not the republican candidate. Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 17, 2008, 04:50:50 PM Er... this poll is trash. Blacks aren't going to make up only 18% of the vote in North Carolina this year. It'll be something in the high-20s.
Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 17, 2008, 04:52:32 PM Er... this poll is trash. Blacks aren't going to make up only 18% of the vote in North Carolina this year. It'll be something in the high-20s. This is a republican base company, they are going to hav the black voters that low. I think if the did have it around 21 or 22%, Obama will be 1% behind or even ahead. Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Kalimantan on June 18, 2008, 04:08:49 AM Er... this poll is trash. Blacks aren't going to make up only 18% of the vote in North Carolina this year. It'll be something in the high-20s. This is a republican base company, they are going to hav the black voters that low. I think if the did have it around 21 or 22%, Obama will be 1% behind or even ahead. Blacks were 26% of the 2004 electorate. Redo the cross-tabs from this poll with those numbers - gives you McCain 42, Obama 46 Title: Re: NC: Other Source: Obama down by 4%, with Barr getting 2% of the Vote. Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 18, 2008, 06:12:09 AM Er... this poll is trash. Blacks aren't going to make up only 18% of the vote in North Carolina this year. It'll be something in the high-20s. This is a republican base company, they are going to hav the black voters that low. I think if the did have it around 21 or 22%, Obama will be 1% behind or even ahead. Blacks were 26% of the 2004 electorate. Redo the cross-tabs from this poll with those numbers - gives you McCain 42, Obama 46 Ah, Now I know why that had the black sample that low. |