Talk Elections

New Poll: Michigan President by Survey USA on 2008-05-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=2620080527019)

Summary: D: 37%, R: 41%, U: 22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52d98ca6-6c14-4f4a-9180-4e7f1fce8a1a)

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22% unsure, I guess alot of people are waiting to see what happens on the 31st.

Do you think maybe they might have tried including a few other options but 'McCain' and 'McCain/Romney'?

22% undecided? 

damn michigan make up your mind : P

Oh, it´s good that we can look back on November 5 and watch this funny poll that had McCain/Romney ahead of Obama/Sebelius by 16, yet on Election Day Obama/Sebelius won MI by 5.

I think that there are too many undecideds - I want to see some more polls later in the election season. 

Obama will probably win by 1-2 points on election day in MI.  McCain can't write off the state completely, though - this is a time where Obama should be peaking in the polls.  If McCain can work with undecided voters, which usually tend to lean conservative, he can have a pretty good swing.

Maybe the main goal was to prove to McCain what an asset Romney would be in his third home state. I could live with McCain choosing Romney :)

Me too, because besides maybe MI and MA where else is Romeny going to help in Democratic states?

The DNC should have had more sense than to strip MI of her delegates. Hell, with 21% of Democrats undecided and only 60% supporting Obama, it is clearly having an impact. Disenfranchising Democrats from having their say on their party's presidential nominee was foolish; however, 'justified' the decision was

Dave

Western states like Nevada and Colorado where he is real popular among conservatives. Plus he brings in economic credentials. He'd actually be a good pick as much as I hate to admit it.

I think it has more to do with pissed off Clinton maniacs, which is what were seeing all over the country. 

I really think Obama should take her as his VP. 

He's also a complete tool and I'd love to see him out there campaigning for the GOP.  Maybe go to some more inner cities neighborhoods, inquire about who let the dogs out again? 

And I thought thant only uni polls had more than 10-15% undecideds...

Yes, looking at the polls, the Clinton maniacs do seem to showing signs of spite, or worse, in the event of an Obama nomination. In all honesty, if Clinton wants the VP slot, I don't see how Obama can deny her it. Unfortunately, this 'unity' ticket that could as much a 'nightmare' as it is a 'dream'.

It could be America's equivalent of Blair-Brown - and seathing acrimony from within :(. Not ideal, far from it, but if needs must ...

Dave

Hey, we'll give you guys Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Just give us Michigan and Pennsylvania and we'll be all set.

Yes, maybe that would happen if McCain led in Pennsylvania and led in a Michigan poll that gave him over 40%. Neither of which has happened recently (except for that Rasmussen that had McCain +1, a statistical tie.)

You're right. Maybe that will happen. It is May, after all.

"Statistical tie" is a stupid euphemism for what's very much not a tie.  We do not know which candidate is ahead at the 95% confidence rate; that does not make it a tie.

Also worth noting:  The poll has Obama winning by only 2 points in Wayne County, which Kerry won by 40 points in 2004.   It's a small subsample, but such a huge difference that it matters to the overall poll result.  (And if I ran my numbers correctly, large enough a discrepancy to be statistically significant even on the small sample of ~95 voters from Wayne county surveyed). 

If Obama actually pulls the 40 point margin there in the election (which seems likely) and the rest of the numbers stay the same as in the poll, he'd win Michigan by 3 points. 

Each and every single one of these SurveyUSA polls gives McCain more than 40% in Michigan.  Some put him damn close to 50%.

Another crosstab I missed before:

Black voters: Obama 62%, McCain 26% (was 89-10 in 2004). 

EDIT: Black voters: McCain/Romney: 40%, Obama/Biden: 34% 

No f'ing way. This is a really screwy poll.

OK let say SUSA sucks right now... I wish PPP would poll other states. :(

Another screwy poll if you look at the internals. No way McCain wins the black vote or gets 26%. I do expect a Romney VP choice would give him a boost there.

22% undecided? You know what that means: Dodgy Poll

This looks ugly to me for several reasons. Besides the sub-sample issues, does anyone else have trouble believing that Romney would give McCain this much of a boost in the general election in MI? I can't see why he would give him any serious boost at all, really. I would just expect he wouldn't hurt him as much here as he would in other parts of the country. The only place where I would expect a real Romney bump is the Mormon belt.

Actually, he is quite popular there because of his father. He could give McCain a boost in Michigan and out west by drawing out the economic conservatives and Mormons. Hell, as much as I dislike Romney, strategically, he seems like a good pick. I just hope he isn't on the ticket.

Sure... among Republicans. I'd be surprised if he didn't have very lacluster favorables among the general electorate.

The format of all of these SUSA polls (asking a the presidential first, then asking each vice presidential pairing afterwards) greatly overmagnifies the effect of the vice-presidential choice. 

Think again, oh wise one.