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Title: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Alcon on May 27, 2008, 01:00:03 PM New Poll: Iowa President by Survey USA on 2008-05-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1920080522019)
Summary: D: 47%, R: 38%, U: 16% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=34d61abd-3c0a-441c-b337-262ffcf3489a) Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Aizen on May 27, 2008, 01:07:45 PM McCain will not be winning Iowa
Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2008, 01:29:32 PM Not surprising.
*Waiting for a WI poll* Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on May 27, 2008, 01:35:54 PM Not surprising. *Waiting for a WI poll* Waiting for MI poll! We need more polls out of MI.. What is going on out there. Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on May 27, 2008, 01:44:53 PM 45% Democrat
28% Republican 24% Independent in this poll In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy. What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently? Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Beet on May 27, 2008, 01:46:56 PM 45% Democrat 28% Republican 24% Independent in this poll In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy. What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently? Well Obama is only getting 69% of Dems in this one while McCain is getting 78% of Reps, so it's not benefiting him as much as it would ordinarily be. Basically, any poll that has so many undecideds is suspicious to me. Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Alcon on May 27, 2008, 01:57:08 PM 45% Democrat 28% Republican 24% Independent in this poll In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy. What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently? SUSA doesn't weight. There wasn't an exit poll in Iowa in 2006. Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on May 27, 2008, 01:59:07 PM 45% Democrat 28% Republican 24% Independent in this poll In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy. What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently? SUSA doesn't weight. There wasn't an exit poll in Iowa in 2006. Well, in their Iowa and Ohio polls, they showed 45% and 52% of the voters to be Democrats. That seems like it's a little high, even though the GOP is hurting. IF most states have 45-50% of the electorate identifying as Democrats, then McCain has no chance. Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: The Mikado on May 27, 2008, 02:20:27 PM Obama should win Iowa, but not by this much.
Like Tender, I'm eagerly awaiting word out of Wisconsin...since MN appears off the table for the GOP, and IA looks Lean Dem Pickup, if WI is Lean Dem Retention Obama will have a lot less defense to play in a region that was a major battleground in the last two contests. Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: agcatter on May 27, 2008, 03:06:47 PM I will concede Obama is the favorite here although I doubt he wins by 9. I could see 4 or 5 however.
Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 27, 2008, 05:11:18 PM Iowa is without a doubt lean Dem at this point. Ever since Obama won the caucus, he has been incredibly strong here.
Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: ChrisFromNJ on May 27, 2008, 05:26:38 PM Lean Dem, but Obama won't win it by more than 5 points, if he wins it at all.
Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Umengus on May 28, 2008, 01:41:05 PM Hasty conclusions based on a fake poll.
Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: minionofmidas on May 28, 2008, 01:54:10 PM What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently? Then again, not weighing (though they do weight for a lot of other factors like race, age, sex) also somewhat increases the risk of catching a wacky sample. But as SUSA seems to be showing that in state after state right now... the "everybody else lags" argument does gain some credence... probably just a post-nomination Obama bump. Just like McCain looking like he actually had even odds at the presidency was just a post-nomination McCain bump. Title: Re: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 29, 2008, 12:09:39 PM As Jermome Armstrong on MyDD said "Obama could run for governor of Iowa while still living in Illinois and win"
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