Talk Elections

New Poll: Kansas President by Survey USA on 2008-02-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2020080217019)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 50%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66dffff3-2735-46be-9a6c-b92fafccf832)



McCain: 59%

Clinton: 35%



Timing: All interviews completed 2/15 to 2/17, before New York Times reporting on John McCain.

The difference between Obama and Clinton in these polls is just amazing.

Just look at the McCain vs. Obama trend:

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Obama is the it candidate right now. He is receiving all the press and is in everyone's minds. these poll numbers will settle down.

DAMN! Go Obama.

Hey Phil.

What were you saying about Kansas?

LOL

You have to be joking. This is proof? Hey, are you going to be around during the General? If so, have a big mouth then, not now. I guarantee McCain will beat Obama (if he's the nominee) by double digits.

Lets see other polls before we get too happy.

Christ, you're thick. I said that there was a chance that Obama would have a chance at carrying Kansas with Sebelius on the bottom of the ticket. The fact that the race is almost tied at this point would lend some credence to my prediction that Kansas may be in play if certain conditions are met.

You are so very, very sad.

"Obama has a chance at having a chance..."

Brilliant prediction.

Oh and the rest of us sane people don't believe this poll makes the race "almost tied" there.

A 6 point difference in a hardcore conservative state is not that promising for the Republican candidate. Bush won the state easily in 2004 62-37....a 25 point difference that seems normal in a GE.

No, actually, it wasn't normal.

In Kansas? Im not surprised it was high.

Only post-Eisenhower elections in which the Republican margin in Kansas was higher than in 2004 were 1984 and 1972.

Get over yourself Phil. You have made a ton of awful predictions in your day.

Name them. What I notice with a lot of people is that they remember my two really bad predictions (Brown 2004 and Santorum 2006) and nothing else. Oh, and I said Hillary will win Virginia. Any other awful predictions? Go. Go ahead. This isn't about me "getting over" myself. I don't brag about my predictions. I'm simply sick of the fanatics here. You people need to come back down and join the rest of us on Earth.

At least my predictions seemed somewhat reasonable compared to the cultists saying Obama has a shot at Kansas.

You had me agreeing with you until you typed that nonsense word. You are no better than the  fanatic who are attacking you.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Obama does better in Kansas than Santorum did.

Spamming.

You're dismissing points based on math and logic as spam.

You claim your incorrect predictions are more reasonable than Obama winning Kansas. However if Obama does better in Kansas than Santorum did, then the prediction of Obama winning Kansas is more reasonable. We currently don't have proof of this, however Kansas 2004 when adjusted to the national average wasn't too far off from the 2006 PA Senate race, so predicting a Santorum victory is only slightly more reasonable.

Your logic is flawed a good 90% of the time so please don't blame me for dismissing it.


Uh, not quite but whatever. Arguing "logic" with you is so pointless.

How is more unreasonable to predict that a race would go the wrong way than another race going the wrong way if the first race is closer than the second?

Because the nature of the races is different.