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Title: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2008, 01:59:10 PM New Poll: Kansas President by Survey USA on 2008-01-17 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2020080117019)
Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 10% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=932a9e59-cd12-43f0-973a-f2da3654d044) Clinton vs. Giuliani: 48-42 Clinton vs. Romney: 47-44 Clinton vs. Huckabee: 47-46 Clinton vs. McCain: 40-53 Obama vs. Giuliani: 43-45 Obama vs. Romney: 45-43 Obama vs. Huckabee: 44-46 Obama vs. McCain: 39-53 Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: HardRCafé on January 18, 2008, 02:52:24 PM I take back what I said about the other poll straining credulity. Yes, Kansas is clamoring for Hillary Clinton.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Mr.Phips on January 18, 2008, 03:01:02 PM If this is true, Nancy Boyda will be fine in KS-02.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: HardRCafé on January 18, 2008, 03:05:04 PM If this is true, I also have a real big bridge to sell you, cheap.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Person Man on January 18, 2008, 03:05:38 PM 40-53 with mcCain honeymoon... I suppose that Clinton will get 43 or 44 in Kansas no matter what.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Adlai Stevenson on January 18, 2008, 05:32:05 PM The Democrats will definitely break 40% in Kansas...if all goes to plan anyway.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Keystone Phil on January 18, 2008, 05:36:52 PM LOL! Accurate!
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: phk on January 18, 2008, 05:58:38 PM Democrats will be in the range of 40% to 45%.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Joe Republic on January 18, 2008, 06:00:51 PM Why bother polling Giuliani? He was relevant in 2007, but not now.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Person Man on January 18, 2008, 06:36:08 PM Democrats will be in the range of 40% to 45%. It will 43.5-55.5 Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: 12th Doctor on January 18, 2008, 06:43:10 PM Democrats will be in the range of 40% to 45%. It will 43.5-55.5 Really, you are joking, right? Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Person Man on January 18, 2008, 06:43:46 PM That's what the polls say.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Keystone Phil on January 18, 2008, 10:33:41 PM That's what the polls say. It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents. Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Person Man on January 18, 2008, 10:45:27 PM But McCain is being pushed at the moment and 13 points is the best he can do.
Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Eraserhead on January 18, 2008, 10:47:18 PM That's what the polls say. It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents. How are they unknown? Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: TomC on January 18, 2008, 10:53:27 PM That's what the polls say. It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents. How are they unknown? Yeah, Giuliani is hardly unknown. Look, this poll won't hold, but it's hardly unbelievable. Giuliani is a former NYC Mayor who had overt affairs and whose son wants nothing to do with him, is for gun control, abortion and gay rights. Clinton lived for two decades in the state next door and has been selling her competence like crazy. It's hardly surprising Giuliani would be kind of weak here in the heartland. Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Adlai Stevenson on January 19, 2008, 09:59:14 AM My predictions (based on nothing) -
KANSAS - 58% (R) McCain 40% (D) Clinton 56% (R) McCain 42% (D) Obama Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: War on Want on January 19, 2008, 01:04:06 PM My predictions:
McCain 56% Clinton 42% McCain 55% Obama 44% Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Person Man on January 20, 2008, 11:10:16 AM My predictions: McCain 56% Clinton 42% McCain 55% Obama 44% 43 for Clinton... Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Keystone Phil on January 20, 2008, 01:26:11 PM That's what the polls say. It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents. How are they unknown? Yeah, Giuliani is hardly unknown. Look, this poll won't hold, but it's hardly unbelievable. Giuliani is a former NYC Mayor who had overt affairs and whose son wants nothing to do with him, is for gun control, abortion and gay rights. Clinton lived for two decades in the state next door and has been selling her competence like crazy. It's hardly surprising Giuliani would be kind of weak here in the heartland. We're talking about the candidates getting creamed in the polls. Rudy isn't unknown. Huckabee and Romney are. Not everyone is a political junkie. It's safe to say that a majority of people have never even heard of those two people. Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Person Man on January 20, 2008, 01:33:01 PM That's what the polls say. It's January and we're talking about unknown Republican opponents. How are they unknown? Yeah, Giuliani is hardly unknown. Look, this poll won't hold, but it's hardly unbelievable. Giuliani is a former NYC Mayor who had overt affairs and whose son wants nothing to do with him, is for gun control, abortion and gay rights. Clinton lived for two decades in the state next door and has been selling her competence like crazy. It's hardly surprising Giuliani would be kind of weak here in the heartland. We're talking about the candidates getting creamed in the polls. Rudy isn't unknown. Huckabee and Romney are. Not everyone is a political junkie. It's safe to say that a majority of people have never even heard of those two people. yeah, but I don't think they matter. Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Keystone Phil on January 20, 2008, 01:33:47 PM yeah, but I don't think they matter. If they are more likely to get the nomination than Rudy, how can they not matter? Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on January 20, 2008, 03:15:58 PM So, if we're calling this 13 point lead set in stone because everyone knows Hillary and McCain, then I suppose we can call the race in Massachusetts set in stone as a 10 point Hillary lead. Right?
Riiiiiiight? Stupid. Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Person Man on January 20, 2008, 03:19:17 PM So, if we're calling this 13 point lead set in stone because everyone knows Hillary and McCain, then I suppose we can call the race in Massachusetts set in stone as a 10 point Hillary lead. Right? Riiiiiiight? Stupid. That's a good point. Title: Re: KS: Survey USA: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6 Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on January 21, 2008, 06:05:01 AM Someone sent me a message asking for further clarification of my point. Let me paraphrase my reply.
It is silly to think numbers like these set in stone, because while people know plenty about John McCain and Hillary Clinton already, few are viewing these elections in partisan terms right now. McCain's lofty numbers in Massachusetts and Hillary's similar numbers in Kansas are built on the political equivalent of a house of cards: independents who usually vote for the other party who have yet to seriously consider the candidates and the meaning of said candidates' victories. This is the same thing that happened early in 2000. Bush had strong numbers in places like New Jersey and New England early on. They disappeared once the campaign seriously began. People are making snap judgements based on low information personality assessments, or based on an "ideal" Clinton versus an "ideal" McCain, where the voters' imaginations define the issues. Neither of these two judgements will hold up over time as this general election campaign begins in earnest. McCain, his surrogates, and the media have not yet made the arguement as to why Hillary Clinton is wrong for the country in terms that these typical Republican-voting independents in Kansas will appreciate. Likewise, Massachusetts independent voters are thinking about what a strong commander in chief McCain will make or about how much better McCain would be than Bush, having yet to consider things like what a McCain presidency will mean for the Supreme Court. As the GENERAL election campaign begins, peoples' underlying partisanships will begin to come out, and Massachusetts will move back towards Hillary > 20%. Kansas will do the same, but towards McCain > 20%. |