Talk Elections

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Post campaign stuff, polls, etc here, and not first-round analysis. And vice-versa, obviously.

Bayrou will not endorse either candidate (BBC)

Bayrou announces creation of new party, Democratic Party. Supposed to run candidate in the June 07 general election.

I need to change my avatar so the "D" does not get associated with Bayrou.

:)

He's smarter than I would think.

I'm a bit of a novice in regards to French presidential politics. What areas need to come in in what percentages for each candidate to win?

Well one candidate has to get more votes than the other in the second round. In the first round the top two candidates, if no candidate has reached 50% of the vote, go onto a second round where the one who recieves the most votes wins. Not really that exotic of a system.

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=5460865

Interesting story from the Int'l Herald-Tribune (a paper made for foreigners and travelers by the New York Times and the Washington Post)

Maybe Bayrou won't endorse Segolene, but it looks like he dislikes Sarkozy more. He must be focusing on the June legislative elections because his biggest flaw in Round 1 was that he didn't have any supporters in Parliament.

Its funny how Sarkozy is so outraged by Royal and Bayrou debating each other. The man has to be in the spotlight 24/7 or else he feels neglected.

I don't know what to think about the PS leaving the Commies and joining the UDF. It sounds good from an American perspective, but apparently the Communists are still technically viable if they can get over 7% of the vote. (For some reason this article doesn't consider Besancenot and Laguiller communists).

Because they aren't? (capital C Communists that is?)

As a random point of interest, in 2002 about 250,000 more people voted for the Commies in the legislative elections than voted for Hue a few months earlier.

Lots of Communist MPs have a strong personal vote I'd reckon. Hue didn't have any crossover appeal. (Nor does Buffet o/c.)

I think Sarkozy will win the second round with 53,4% to Royals 46,6%.

I disagree, I think she'll get 46,7%. :P ;)

Wrong! It'll be 46.8% >:( ;)

Sarko vs. Ségo in France (http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070514/schiffrin)

Faced with all this, rather than move to the left, where she felt support for her was assured, Ségo joined the nationalist and conservative clamor. Having initially voiced her admiration for the New Labour politics of Tony Blair, she began to defend the flag, arguing that each French home should display one, and played "La Marseillaise" rather than the traditional Socialist "Internationale" at each of her tricolor rallies. Her campaign seemed carefully based on Hillary Clinton's, following the latter's caution and conservatism. Ségo's social proposals evoked her past as a military daughter, as when she argued that delinquent teenagers, understood to be largely of immigrant stock, should be retrained by the army.

Her most daring economic promise, raising the minimum monthly wage by 250 euros over five years, would not even keep up with inflation, as was pointed out by her young Trotskyist opponent, Olivier Besancenot, whose postman's salary was not much higher and who polled an impressive 4 percent in the first round, more than twice that of the ever-declining Communists.

In a way, it's comforting that the US Democrats aren't the only sell-outs on the "left"...

Royal is pulling ever so slightly closer in the polls. I don't think she can pull off a victory, but it's looking slightly less unlikely now. After all, there were clearly once a majority of the French who supported her over Sarkozy (back in January), so the potential at least exists.

I wonder how the Taliban hostage situation in Afghanistan will play out?

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.

Ipsos's polls for the 28th and 29th had it at 52.5-47.5, a hair closer (which was the narrowing I was referring to).

Was there much question Bayrou wouldn't endorse someone?  That seems to be part and parcel of his "look at my old tractor; aren't I too homely to be ideological?" thing. 

Royal's never been much of a leftist, at least from my uneducated perspective.  More of an odd mix of authoritarian "populist" socialism.  Is this nationalist stuff really much of a surprise?

Sounds good.
Just to be different I'll predict Sarkozy 51.6.

Well then, I predict Sarkozy 51.4, to ensure that he won't get the closest prediction. ;)

Lewis is more likey to be on the mark.

My prediction was just about the best Royal can do.

Haven't seen preductions from Dave or Phil.  They both did very well in the first round.

Bayrou is not so smart: democratic party in french is "parti démocratique", initials PD. PD is a very used insult in French (to say gay). You can image jokes on it... In Belgium, a guy had the same idea but before this problem, changed his mind.

For the second turn, I predict a solid victory for Sarkozy, by 53,4%. No polls have given a Royal win for january. Her only chance is to have a very very good report from the far left votes, a very good penetration in the Bayrou vote (65% at least) and a bad report of the FN votes on Sarkozy. Probably of this scenario: weak.

A couple of questions for you as you appear to be particularly knowledgeable about French politicis:

1). Do you anticipate that the turnout will be significantly down in the final from the first round?

2.) Does Royal have the problem of, as the Brits would put it, "falling between two stools" by trying to round up the votes of the lefties and simultaneously appealing to the Bayrou voters?

Breaking News...

Le Pen calls on his voters to stay home in second round.

If that has any impact, Sarkozy may well be toast.
It probably doesn't have much impact though...

Link? That may be big news. Most of the ones who would ignore Le Pen probably voted for Sarkozy in the first round anyway (the ones who voted Le Pen in 2002 and Sarkozy in 2007).

It'd be big news only if it was unexpected to Le Pen voters - and I'm not so sure of that. It's completely in character.

Here's a link (http://www.thenewstribune.com/889/story/52064.html) - not my original source of the news o/c (which was in German)

For the German speaking members here (= Lewis):

ARTE will live stream the debate on its website tomorrow at 9pm with German simultaneous translation :) :) :)

Thanks, I speak French well enough. I'd much prefer for them to simply air it live on tv.

Don't forget about me! :)

Well thats good for you, because I just speak English, German and Italian fluently. But anyway, TV5 is broadcasting it live in French. ARTE just on its website. :)

Hab nicht gewusst, dass du auch deutsch sprichst ! ;)

No, I don't think Sarkozy is toast because of this. This doesn't mean 100% of FN voters will stay home.

Does anyone know what time the debate will begin for us folks on the East Coast across the pond?  :)  Also, will France 24 be covering this debate online? I'd love to watch a live stream.

I heard that Royal is doing well amongst male voters while women are supporting Sarkozy. I find this odd, does anyone have any info?

She's hot by the standards of politicians; need we say more? ;)

The debate begins at 3 pm your time. I don´t know if France 24 will show it, their website says nothing ... Just watch ARTE TV or TV5 instead ;)

I'm sure I'll get a lot of questions at work as to what the hell I am watching.  :P

Watch out ! As a PA Republican you'll probably get lynched for watching a "FRENCH" debate. Get your Freedom fries ready ... ;)

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That's true and all, but it still amazes me that she's older than my mother!

Does TV5 have live streaming? I wont be home to watch it on the TV.

I'll try to catch a part of it on TV5, but it's at 22:00 RUH time.

I don't blame them for mocking me. I have a known hatred for the French but I am interested in following their elections and Sarkozy is actually a good guy for the U.S.

Better not show the French hatred in front of me.

1) Polls say that turnout should lower than the first round (80%). Some far left and far right voters should not vote.

2) Not really, because the far left vote is weak. Royal tries not really to catch the far left vote (just the minimum), she tries to catch the Bayrou vote but she will fail I think because in the bayrou vote, you have center-left people who were not happy with the royal's incompetence and they will vote royal at the second turn but you have also the "udf voters", who are at right (more conservative than an ump voter but more left on economy. But not great difference). The game is to know the proportion of both in the 18,5%. 50% 50% maybe. Not enough for Royal.

During the sunday meeting, Sarkozy has not tried to tend to the center. He stays on his values, bashing "may 1968", the cause of all problems in France. And one more time, it's Sarkozy who decides the agenda. For now, this guy is probably the best candidate, the best politician, the best communicator  that I have seen in my short life.

Ipsos poll

the best pollster for the 1st run.

Royal :46,5% (-0,5%)
Sarkozy: 53,5% (+0,5)

15% refuse to say.

Bayrou voters (difficult at polled): royal: 36% (-5)
                                                     Sarkozy: 37% (+5)
                                                      Abstention: 27%

extreme left: Royal: 70% (-4)
                     Sarkozy: 8% (-2)
                     Abstention: 22% (+6)

Le pen voters: Royal: 9% (-6)
                        Sarkozy: 57% (-4)
                        Abstention: 34% (+10)

 

Debate starts right now.

Royal attacks Sarkozy on the increase of violence during his time as Interior minister, Sarkozy conters with blaming Royal's Socialist predecessors for the increase.

Royal lays out her plans for the public service sector.

Sarkozy talks how to deal with sexual predators and juvenile criminals. Royal gives "rape example."

Royal talks about her plans to speed up France's economic growth, benefits for small companies, reduction of the debt, Sarkozy accuses her of being superficial and she should talk so that "the French people are able to follow her talk". Sarkozy wants to strengthen the image of "work", critisizes the 35-hour-week.

I just tuned in and it seems pretty heated.  :)

Royal really is quite patronizing.

Royal is pretty busy to bridge the Nuclear-Alternative-Discussion, because she looks for the votes of the far-left and Greens which hate Nuclear energy. Therefor Sarkozy is now aggresively lobbying for the nuclear industry :P

I love that Royal even realizes that she is recognized as a condescending b---h as she tells Sarko, "Stop playing the victim. No, I'm not being condescending"...in a condescending way.   :P

Ah, poor Segolene, getting all worked up.

"No, I will not calm down."

Remember that line, folks. Madame Royal just lost the election. It's over.

And she keeps saying, "I didn't lose my cool" over and over again even as the debate moved on. "I'm just angry." I love it! Sarko - winner.

"Awwwwww, did I hurt your feelings?"

She dips the hole deeper! I can't wait to see this b---h owned on Sunday!

A lively debate ... :P

It's over. The woman just had an emotional breakdown and won't move on. She lost the election with that outburst.

Changing prediction:

Sarkozy 54
Royal     46

She just dug her tomb with this debate. Her flip was so good. "When I'll be president of the republic" sarkozy answers "that will be fun"

Anyone else who can give opinions on the outcome? I only saw some excerpts of it. Swedish media which is extremely partisan called it as a Royal victory but they're about as clueless as always.

We´ll have to watch the next polls, but I still believe Sarkozy will win with between 53-55% on Sunday.

I concur.

Stick a fork in Royal.  She's done.

Surely.

Are any polls coming out before Sunday?

Royal was very "agressive" and Sarkozy was very "wise", "zen". People waited the opposite. Hence, suprise is the dominant feeling.

the last "emotional breakdown" in the end of the debate was superficial because it's just not the reality.

Opinion way poll (well, not the best: a scientif web poll, for the figaro, conservative newspaper)

wich candidate was the most convincing?
Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 31%
none of both: 15%

 http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/opinionway_03_05.pdf

I was so happy I got to part of the debate!

The first round results on 4/22 weren't even mentioned on the NBC Evening News, but they did broadcast the debate on CSPAN yesterday.

I hate Sarkozy's personality, so I will never say anything positive about him. But I didn't like some of Segolene's responses, she was too vague and that line about putting more people on unemployment benefits? What the hell? The idea is to get people jobs! Pauvre Segolene, j'adore elle.

Final Round:

Sarkozy  53
Royal      47

Prediction (and I am bad at French elections, as you've discovered)

Sarkozy 53.4
Royal 46.6

My latest prediction:

Sarkozy: 55.2%
Royal: 44.8%

"Je l'adore". ;)

Vous pwn3z!

le français r0x0rze mes b0x0rz

mdr!

After today's Royal outburst, I'm pushing Sarkozy up a point to 54.4 and I personally think he could get over 55.  It's always easy to sense when a candidate is definitely going to lose, and this is that day.

She had an outburst today, too? You've got to be kidding me. I love it.

With 100% of the clinically insane precincts reporting, it appears Ms. Royal will be the winner...



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It appears Mme Royale has been taking tips from the Scottish Labour campaign team :)

'Tis a shame that the Socialist Party, which ahd such potential coming into this race, has been slapped in the face by an incompetent candidate who has essentially ruined them for the next year at least. This was thier chance!

Aaaaarrrrrrggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Are you talking about her threat of having her supporters riot if she is not elected?

I don't know. It was Sam who said she had another outburst.

I revise my latest prediction upwards and now predict:

Sarkozy: 56,2%
Royal: 43,8%

Royal was the best candidate for the ps. She was nomitad because polls showed she was the best to beat Sarkozy. I think that Fabius and Strauss kahn would have make worse.

Last polls, all after the debate.

Ipsos poll

Sarkozy: 55 % (+1)
royal: 45% (- 1)

Are your sure?

royal voters: 89% (-2)
Sarkozy voter: 93% (+5)

Bayrou voters:

Royal 35% (=)
Sarkozy: 36% (+1)
abstention: 29% (-1)

Le Pen voters:

Royal: 9% (-5)
Sarkozy: 70% (+12)
abstention: 21% (-7)

extreme left voters:

Royal 64% (-2)
Sarkozy: 21% (+8)
abstention: 15% (-6)

CSA poll

Royal: 47% (-1)
Sarkozy: 53% (+1)

Turnout: 80%

Debate

most convincing

Sarkozy: 47%
royal: 35%
none: 15%

Ifop poll

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

Debat

Best performance

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal :39%
did not say: 8%

Sofres poll

Sarkozy: 54,5% (+2,5)
Royal: 45,5% (-2,5)

Bva poll

Sarkozy: 55% (+3)
Royal: 45% (-3)


THE GAME IS OVER

Ouch. What's happening here?

extreme left voters are difficult to poll. same for FN voters and Bayrou voters.

I predict Sarkozy with 55% of the vote around there.

Hmm...I'll say 54.6% for Sarkozy, 45.4% for Royal.

57.2% for Sarkozy. 42.8% for Royal.

I'm going to say the floor for Royal is about 44% I would be very surpised if there was anything larger than a 55-45 victory for Sarko.

My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%

^^^^^

Turnout at 12 am:

34,1% (31,21% 2 weeks ago)

That high? No 55 for Sarkozy then.

EDIT: Although I just read that turnout was up 5 points in Guadeloupe and 3 in Guyane, but marginally down on the first round in Martinique, which voted for Royal. So maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means, after all.

Sarkozy did good in guyane and guadeloupe. Wait and see.

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

Turnout was 75.11% @ 5pm. About 1% higher than in the 1st round 2 weeks ago.

Interesting.

We both agree exactly.

In the first round, you, Dave, and I were tied as the three most accurate predictors.

Haven't seen Dave with a prediction in the final yet.

Should be interesting.

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) :)

Merci. :)

RTBF, a Belgian TV channel has a first (unofficial) 5pm estimate:

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

http://evenement.rtbf.be/

Closer than I thought ...

too early. Wait estimations.

I'm not sure to understand well your question but Sarkozy does very good amongst old people.

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8427.asp

LeSoir (Belgian Newspaper) reports 54% for Sarkozy.

http://www.lesoir.be/

TSR (Switzerland) reports 53-54% for Sarkozy.

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/

86% Total Turnout Estimate

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/

SF (Swiss TV) reports Sarkozy won with 53-55%.

http://tagesschau.sf.tv/nachrichten/archiv/2007/05/06/international/sarkozy_klar_vor_royal

rtbf: Sarkozy: 53,5% Royal: 46,7%
bva: Sarkozy: 54% Royal: 46%

It is likely now that Sarkozy gets more than 20 Million votes ...

Le soir: exit polls give between 53% and 56% for sarkozy

When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)

7 over here I think

SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

53%, a little closer than expected

After Royal's recent actions, I really couldn't see Sarkozy below 52% (probably not 53% either).  The real question in my mind was whether he could break 55%.  I still stand by my 54.4% prediction, though.

Yahoo.fr is projecting a 53-47 margin. About as expected.

SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Segolene to Poitou!

Vive Sarkozy! I guess Royal wasn't "hot" enough for France, BRTD.

I loved that corny countdown they had before they could declare Sarko the winner. Amazing how quickly they know the winner.

Dept. of Lozère for Sarkozy (55,74%)

Martinique (60,52%) and Guadeloupe (50,83%) (overseas) for Royal

Reuinion (overseas) for Royal (63,58%)

Excellent result :)

President Nicolas Sarkozy de Nagy-Bosca, 6th President of the French Republic... Rings good!

Where are departementale updates?

http://tf1.lci.fr/infos/elections-2007/resultats/

I read a claim on the Socialist website a while back that Sarkozy secretly supported the Iraq War, because he was rather quiet during it. If that's true, we're dealing with one massive irony.

Oh the PS tried and failed to vilify him.

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YES! Can't say I could be happier with the result. This result actually makes me proud to be part French.

This is a great result, let's hope France gets rolling again, France 24 is covered in English on C-SPAN, Royal's "concession" speech is quite an embarassment, they won't be "renewing" anything if they keep this garbage up.

Me as well, although I have to say I still have a negative opinion of France it went from "extremely unfavorable" to "very unfavorable"

Meh. Better Sarkozy than Royal, I suppose. If I lived in France, I would be one of the 15% who didn't vote. Talk about two terrible candidates.

It's already a massive irony - The U.S. had to turn to France for a foreign policy victory.


I still hate the French but I guess I can agree with them/applaud them for something.  :P

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Lol, 1 red spot in the North - Pas de Calais for Royal.

It would have been nice to slice the map into 2 parts from North-West France to the South-East, with NE for Sarkozy and SW for Royal.

Paris Suburbia seems to be in love with Sarkozy, giving him close to 60%.

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Another defeat for "third way".

Poll out for the Parliamentary Elections next month:

Ifop:

Sarkozy's UMP: 34%
Royal's PS: 29%
Bayrou's UDF: 12%
Le Pen's FN: 7%

No other party polled more than 5 pct in the survey.

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2007/05/06/afx3690581.html

Huh? Please tell me who was third way in the second round? You could make a case that Bayrou was a "third way" candidate but Royal really was not "third way" economically.

True. On the whole she was noticably to the right of Blair (except in rhetoric, obviously).

Semi-joking aside, I told you it would have been tactically better to vote for Bayrou in the first round. Even IRV would have probably eliminated him, but he WAS also probably the Condorcet winner.

Well socially she definitely was, some of her plans sounded quite authoritarian to me at least.

Royal was surprisingly strong in Brittany and overseas despite losing.

As Stephen Colbert put it, "It's progress when even the French hate the French".

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I never have rooted against the French, which is why I am happy they voted to be relevant once more and show some backbone.  It is strange France and Germany are allies now, whereas Italy and Spain not so much.

This result is what I expected, unlike the first round (where I predicted Le Pen to beat Bayrou for third place :P). Check out this hilariously biased AP article (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/06/ap/world/main2765171.shtml). One of many gems within:

The 52-year-old former interior minister inherits a nation losing faith in itself, paralyzed by worries over globalization, bitter at American dominance and saddled with social tensions.

Wow, thank you AP and CBS News for making yourselves look completely foolish. Half the article was just talking about how pro-American Sarkozy is and the other half talked about the "Arab and African immigrants" and all that rubbish. Now I know why I get most of my news from foreigners.

Based on final predictions and unofficial results

Tobias Beecher was first.

Sam Spade was second.

Phil and I shared third place.

Gustaf  and Lewis shared fourth.

Gabu was fifth.

Sarkozy was sixth.

Tender Branson was seventh.

Bacon King was eighth.

Couldn't find predictions for Umengus or Dave.

Everyone correctly predicted the winner, and most predictions were acceptably close to actual results.

What encouraging words he offered, let's hope France can come together and we can all work together to mend the mess the last 40 years has been.

Hear, hear. I look forward to a France that will be a real ally. I'll still dislike the French though with the exception of Sarkozy because he's just awesome.  :P

I know next to nothing about French politics. Is the SW usually where the Socialist do best. Anybody know why?

No credit to the 53.1% who carried him?

I knew that was coming. The answer is still no. I guess I can applaud them for some of their political positions but I just have an overall extreme distaste for the French. Their arrogance and rather snobby and rude behavior makes me physically ill but that's not the point here. They did a good job yesterday.

Found this and lold:

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This is how the Big French Regions voted:

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http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-906398@51-906165,0.html

According to Le Monde, Sarkozy plans to appoint a new prime minister on May 19 or 20 to prepare for the legislatives in June. Who would be the most likely candidate, François Fillon?

I think that the UMP is most likely to have a majority in June, but what if they don't? Is it completely unimaginable to see the UMP fall short of 50%, with the rest divided among the UDF and the PS? In that case, what would happen? Would the UMP and the UDF form a coalition (all of the UDF deputies supported Sarkozy during the second round), or would there be a deadlock between the UMP and the PS? If there is a deadlock, would it be possible for Bayrou to emerge as a compromise candidate?

With France moving closer to a three-party system, I think the next few elections will be very interesting...

Have you actually known any, personally?

It's all right to hate the French, because no matter who you are, you can rest assured that they hate you too. ;)


Mine wasn't exactly a serious prediction.

http://www.alterniawhatif.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=699&st=0

lol.

I can safely say that everyone within that topic is retarded.

Corrected.

The very fact that they believe that Bayrou stole the election from her is clearly retarded. Going to the point of saying 53-47 was close is retarded. I forgot the rest.

53-47 is close.

Bayrou will not be running with the UDF; some of the current UDFers will probably join the UMP while others will follow him. His new party is the MD (Democratic Movement).

There apparently already was a tiny Parti Democrate in France, so Bayrou's new party is the Mouvement Democrate.

6-point victory in France is quite considerable

(Barely) wider than 95, actually, so yeah, not that close either. Wider than 74 and 81, as well, but narrower than 65, 69, 88, or of course 02. Discounting 02 where the result was never in doubt, that makes Sarkozy's the median percentage for a French presidential election winner. :)

Oh, btw. Check this out:
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Not that similar to the current map. I guess Chirac did much better in the outre-mers.

Couple a things to note about the results:

Turnout was up 0.2 points from the first round. However, it was massively up in the Outre-Mers, and also up in Corse, so I think it actually slightly declined in Metropolitan France. I sure as hell don't see a pattern to where in France it was slightly down and where it was slightly up, although there were few mainland French départements where it varied by more than one point.

Despite Sarkozy slightly widening the gap on Royal (5.3 points in round one, 6.0 in round two), all the départements to switch switched to Royal. This is because Sarkozy piled on massively in his southeastern strongholds. Check the geriatric resorts of the eastern Var, for example - Saint Tropez, Saint Raphael, Fréjus etc (the French Bournemouths, as it were :P ) - Sarkozy cracked 70 throughout that area. And in that most uber-posh of Paris' posh arrondissements (XVIth... I think...) he actually (barely) cracked 80.

On a simplified assumption that all of Le Pen's, de Villiers', and Nihous' voters went for Sarko, and all the leftist voters went for Royal, she took about 57% of Bayrou's vote. I think I'll do some calculations on how this figure varies regionally...

I'm giving much consideration to vacationing in Brittany, the Massif-Central or the southwest soon

Dave

Red = Royale, correct?

No, Red = Royal. ;)

Thankfully, no.  :P

Listen, you're not going to get me to change my mind on this. Call me stubborn, call me a prick...whatever. I don't like the French. It really isn't worth your time though I have noticed that recently you've been taking jabs at me (for whatever reason).

Now if I was to come across a French person that was kind to me and I liked the person then I'd be just as kind in return. When I meet someone, I try my hardest to treat them as an individual. I wouldn't insist on disliking someone who happened to be French even if I actually liked them.

This is pretty interesting, I like how they have all the detail of French voting abroad.
That's the page for the Houston Consulate, showing the results in Dallas, Houston and Austin. But there you can download the PDF files for the entire USA results and the entire world, country by country.

http://www.consulfrance-houston.org/article.php3?id_article=836

It is interesting to see how the vote also resembled the U.S. voting patterns: Sarkozy did better in Texas and Florida and worse in San Francisco and Boston.
Sarkozy won in Mexico also :D  and got 90% of the votes in Israel!

I agree it isn't worth my time.  I didn't set out to take jabs at you, either, but you've made more irrational posts lately than anyone here on the Left, which is why I assumed you were just despondent over Santorum's defeat.

Anyway, have fun hating whatever populations of people you've never met float your boat.

Wait, there are French people in Texas?

get mah guns, cletus

haha yes there are some. Actually my roommate is French. There are several French students here at UT. By the way, all the ones I've met were supporting Sarkozy, or more accurate, hating Royal.

Sarkozy won amongst French voters here in the UK :)

So you want to take the opportunity to bash me and say that I am still bitter about Santorum's defeat? Whatever. Seriously, pal, grow up. You have something against me and so you decide to attack every little post that I make which you may disagree with. And then to poke fun at me by saying that I am like this because Santorum lost is especially pathetic. That stopped being funny around January. Time for new material.

Unlike you, I am taken seriously here. To say I've made more irrational posts than anyone on the left on this forum is really silly also especially when your only argument of me being irrational is the fact that I don't like the French and I don't think the GOP will win Senate races in Colorado and probably won't take Virginia if John Warner retires. Yes, completely irrational.  ::)


Well, since we want to be arrogant about this, I'll keep this going.

I never said I never met French people. Since you want to make this into me not being worldly enough, I'll let you know that I have dealt with the French in their own country. I've been to Europe twice which, for someone my age, is quite a privilege. On the way to Italy last year, my group had to make a stop in Paris. We were met with the typical rude French behavior and while my personal experience wasn't as nasty, I had others who accompanied me on the trip tell me how they were angry with the attitude that they were given.

So I wouldn't start telling me how I've never met anyone who happened to be French or insinuate that I'm clearly not worldly enough to engage in such a discussion.

In fairness Phil, having bad experiences from two visits to Paris still doesn't make a dislike for all French people any less irrational.

Paris does not = France

From what I know of Paris, judging all French people based on Paris is like judging all Canadians based on Montreal.

Hear, Hear.

Go somewhere more provincial, or ruggedly industrial.

Well, it was one quick stop in Paris. I said two trips to Europe.  :P

I wasn't saying that my encounters while over there were justification. He was claiming that I had never met anyone who happened to be French which I was simply disproving.

Anyway, I have met the French during my travels and it does seem to back up my feelings. Some here are saying Paris does not equal France and that's fine but I doubt that every rude person on our Air France flight to Rome was a Parisian. I know people that have gone to France and complained about the same thing.

However, as I have said before, I treat people like individuals when I meet them. If I met someone who happened to be French and I liked them then I'd treat them accordingly.

Again, as I said before, call me whatever you want in terms of my personal problems with the French. My problem here was that HardRCafe has gone out of his way to pick fights with me over the smallest things.

This wasn't meant to be a discussion about how some of us feel about the people. It was a simple comment that could have been met with no hostility. When Hashmite saw that I said that I dislike the French, he said "You better not show that around me!" in what I believe was a light hearted manner. That's what should have been done with me and we could all go back to discussing the election. I will say, though, that I take offense if someone wants to make me out to be any less worldly about foreign cultures and people like HardRCafe tried to do with me. I am not some "Oh my God! I hate the French! Freedom fries and freedom toast!" I have had my experiences and I'll make my judgements based on those experiences.

Of course.  After all, Paris (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_%28disambiguation%29) is in Texas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris%2C_Texas).

Right, Bayrou is creating a Mouvement Démocrate, but when? Does he have the time to establish a new party before June 10? I figured that he would stick to the UDF for now and create the MD during the months after the legislatives.

Either way, whether it runs under the banner of the UDF or the MD, I feel that the center might deny the UMP a majority in June (although the legislatives usually mirror the presidential results), in which case it would effectively decide who gets to form the government.

I would expect the announcement within the next week. He probably wanted to wait until after the Presidential election in order to avoid the announcement being drowned out by Sarkozy and Royal.

If the polls are any indication, Sarkozy will struggle to get a majority:

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070506-sondage-soir-du-vote-les-francais-et-l-apres-presidentielle.htm


Will vote for...
Far left (various): 3%
Left (PS): 33%
Center (MD): 15%
Right (UMP): 37%
Far right (FN): 8%
Unsure: 4%

And I thought it was in Illinois.

http://www.ci.paris.il.us/

Polls right now aren't worth much, before the real campaign has even begun, before Sarkozy is even President...

Are you kidding? That's a 4% increase from the last elections.

I suspect it will largely depend on how the socialist respond to rioting.

If they blame the rioting on Sarkozy and apologize for the rioting scum, they will pay dearly at the polls.

And if DSK, Fabius, and company don't stop destroying themselves, they'll pay dearly at the polls.

Could the MD (if some of their candidates reach the second round) split the centre-left vote, seeing how much Bayrou is moving to the left. Will a MD candidate be able to win in the second round, i've heard people say that no they won't be able to.

Yes, they will. A number of them will be reelected on personal votes.

There are 19 Parises in the US, including two in Wisconsin. There's also a West Paris and a South Paris, both in Maine (which also has a Paris).

On average, and with numerous exceptions, Sarkozy took a larger share of Bayrou's votes in areas where he was also strong in the first round.

It's fairly normally distributed - every percentage from 40 to 47 for Sarkozy occurs at least 5 times, every percentage from 31 to 52 occurs at least once. Add Var at 54 to that, and that leaves the following remarkable outliers:

High share of Bayrou's vote to Sarkozy:
58 Alpes-Maritimes, Haute-Savoie (poshest of southeastern départements. Not a coincidence.)
60 Bas-Rhin, Polynésie
61 Haut-Rhin
71 Nouvelle Calédonie

Low share:
23 Saint Pierre et Miquelon (turnout up by more than 10 points)
21 Aisne
20 Somme
16 Mayotte (turnout below 50% on both rounds)
14 Pas de Calais

Now just marvel at this three département cluster of Aisne, Somme and Pas de Calais. This is an area where Sarkozy did slightly subpar in both rounds (although he won two of them), Royal did slightly subpar in the first round, Bayrou did very badly, Le Pen did very well, and the extreme left did very well. And also where Sarkozy did noticeably better than Chirac in 95.

I have a feeling that it's not Bayrou's voters at all that were more leftist here than elsewhere, but Le Pen's voters.

I can't find the second round by circonscription, but here's the first, compared to the 2002 legislative election (2nd round except where none held)

Of circonscriptions won by candidates described as UMP, Sarkozy won 315 and Royal won 36.
PS, Royal won 99, Sarkozy won 40, and Bayrou 2.
UDF, Sarkozy won 24, Royal 5 and Bayrou 2.
PCF, Royal won 17 and Sarkozy 4. Royal also won the circonscription held by a member of the Communist Party of La Réunion (PCR).
PRG, Sarkozy won 5 and Royal 2. Sarkozy also won Taubira's seat - she was described on the ballot as the Walwari candidate, but had run for the PRG in the presidential election.
Greens, Royal won all three.
Martinique regional parties (MIM and BPM), Royal won both.
diverse other party labels identifiable as right-wing (DL, RPF, MPF, "UMP-UDF-RPF"), Sarkozy won all 7.
diverse party labels that I can't make heads or tails off (NC, SE, CSD), Sarkozy won all 5.
"diverse right", Sarkozy won three and Royal two.
"diverse left", Sarkozy won both.

I think that my prediction was 53,4%

To be honest, the prediction which was important was for the 1 turn.

:P

Sorry that I missed it.

A very accurate prediction.

Well, I don't know any personally (which was the question) but I have met and dealt with enough of them.  :P

I love continuing this conversation as I listen to one of my favorite songs - La Marseillaise.  ;)

It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

I understand that but I think that the French, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the French outside of Paris.

I understand that but I think that the Americans, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Americans outside New York.

I understand that but I think that the Italians, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Italians outside Rome.

And you know what, Al? I know you think you are going to catch me being hypocritical but I honestly don't care if you really feel that way. You know as well as I do that the French have a very nasty disposition towards Americans.

You keep going after me over this because first you thought you'd get me by saying my problem was just with Parisians. When I complain about the French that can be from any other region of France, you mock me and try to use my words against me. Now I can't dislike the French unless they are from the capital city so you can simply blame it on where they are specifically from?

Think what you want about Americans and Italians. If they rub you the wrong way after your encounters with them, more power to you to say that they bother you.

And please stop this holier than thou business with this subject. I love how everyone jumps at the opportunity to say that I am that way yet refuse to admit when they act is such a way. You have your own personal prejudices, Al, and so does everyone that gave me a hard time on this subject. I'm not saying that these prejudices are a good thing but they are reality. When you have used stereotypes against Italians in the past in commentary about Italian politics, I didn't really care. Please act the same when dealing with me and my opinions of the French.

I'm pretty sure al isn't the only one to come out of an encounter with a disfavourable opinion of native Italians.....

Never said or assumed that he did. In fact, I have encountered a few also. My point is, however, that we all have our prejudices that we shouldn't necessarily see as good things but they do exist. For people to beat up on me over this was really ridiculous. Like I said, one on one, I treat people as individuals and won't say "Oh, you're French? Ok, don't bother with me because I hate you already" but overall, I don't like the French. Overall, you don't like certain people, too.

Actually I've no problem with Americans or Italians. Just pointing out the hypocrisy, that's all :)

Where was the hypocrisy? You clearly didn't read my post. Do me a favor and actually read what I said before you point out a double standard.

Maybe the French have a nasty disposition against Americans because they hate them. They probably have good reason to do it since they met that nasty cab driver in New York that one time.

Again, you're comparing this to "one" event which was never my argument. Listen, I can't continue this if everyone is going to be stubborn and ignore that these incidents have happened more than once and not just with Parisians.

We're way off topic anyway so I propose that we drop this.

New thread for legislative elections to be created.

I guess some here have yet to forgive France for being right about Iraq.

They kicked it out?

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8450.asp#8

Main problem with the argument is of course that the French have nothing of the kind.

*Some* French have a *slightly* nasty disposition to arrogant people who believe that everybody understands or at least should be treated as if he understood English though.
Not that I can blame'em.

I hereby revoke every churlish remark I've ever made about those lovely Gallic people. (http://www.anncoulter.com)

I'm not entirely sure how to respond to the idea that the French voted for Sarkozy because he's pro-American.

That's immaterial.  I just thought it was nice Ann Coulter was less bigoted against the French than some people.

Well yes, I do have to say that I am quite surprised that Ann Coulter seems to be okay with admitting a perceived error.  That makes her better in that respect than a lot of people I can think of.