Talk Elections

This topic is for the technical issues around the 2004 prediction pages (upload problems, feature requests, etc.).

I'm interested in making this work you and your help in debug is appreciated.
Dave

I get the error messege:
Error: The file name is too long. Please limit the name to 25 characters

But the name is only 16 characters long, 20 if you include the .gif extension.
Any suggestions?  I tried both Netscape and Exploer to try and upload.

I got the same thing, about the 25 character limit. Even though my file name is just pe2004demrepdan1, which is unarguably not 25 characters long. I've even tried shortening it to pe2004demrepdan, pe2004demrep, pe2004dan, and none of these names work to much dismay.

Hmmm :-( it seems like I am the only one so far who was able to upload it without a problem.

I just realised this post is more appropriate here. Will delete it from the other folder in a bit.

Dave, it may be a little too late to suggest changes in color-coding for your map repeating 2000 results, but I found the shades to red associated with >50  and >60 to be too similar.

Also since the difference between getting 50.16% (Washington) and getting 54.60% (Illinois)  in the last election makes all the difference with regard to predicting competitiveness in the next election, Might I suggest having more than one category for 50-60%?

As to the predictive maps, I myself plan to have four completely different colors
Solid Republican -Dark Blue
Lean Republican - Light Blue
Tossup  - White or gray
Lean Democrat-Light Red
Solid Democrat- Dark Red

Also come to think of it, if we are looking at predictive value, then margins work better than %vote totals. For instance in the map Maine is shown as a tossup state because Gore won it with less than 50%. However if you note that he won it by just over FIVE % and that five % were left-leaning voters of Ralph Nader, it puts a whole new light on the political competitiveness of the state.

Can we represent this vital angle in any way?

I have fixed the string length problem.  It was a bug I introduced last night after putting a file-length check in (since I set the database length for the name at only 25 char).  sorry about that.

Ryan - I like your suggestion.  What if we have two maps - one with the commit prediction (i.e. the current map) and one with the "solid, lean, tossup" categories.  They could be side-by-side to compare your confidence with the predicted results.

Dave

Excellent Idea! That way we have best of both worlds.

I'll do something similar. I think I'll do what English did and simply use red and blue (ie, instead of different shades of red and blue). Would that be a problem?

Sounds OK to me at least but the prob with a two color map is that it doesnt differenciate between say Texas and Florida (two states that all so far have going republican)

If you are certain enough of your predictions that you feel every state you assign to a party is most likely to do so then its ok.

The utility of multiple color maps are to allow you to distinguish between "Likely" and "Sure" things :)

Btw what's the meaning of "sticky topic" such as this thread is marked??

I think that's when a topic always remains at the top of the list, even if other topics are updated.

Hey all!  BTW, thanks for patience and in helping me to debug this and providing feature feedback.  I have "redone" the page to add a confidence map to the prediction map.

This new page (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/PRED04/) includes the new features and some bug fixes.  The page is run off of new set of database tables (so start fresh! - as initial uplolad and not update).  

As always, let me know what you think.
Dave

I uh...well...hmm. I'm probably the only person left who is still having problems. But I attempted to upload my Predictions and Confidence maps, and after I ALMOST had it, and I moved on to step 2, I noticed that the images did not appear above. So...I went BACK thinking that I had done something wrong, and after I tried to upload the maps again, it told me that my file already exists. I don't know what to say....I'm...extremely unlucky...

Demrepdan,
Can you describe your platform?  OS and browser?  The files are there, but have zero file length... like the broser is creating the files in the directory, but not uploading them.  I first thought that this was a permissions problem, but have not been able to reproduce.  Now I am thinking that it may be the browser you are using...

I will delete the zero-length files.  Try a different browser (Netscape 7 or other Gecko-based browsers are pretty good) You can continue to fill-out the step 2 and email me the files as a fall-back.  
Dave

Well true to form I have been unsuccessful at uploading my file. I originally recd. an error saying saying "Error: Must select file to upload"and have now graduated to, "Error: A file "" already exists"

My browser is Internet Explorer 5 and I use Windows 98 SE.
Let me know if you can identify the problem.

I have Internet Explorer 6.0, and Windows XP. I'm not sure what else to tell you. But are you saying that the problem is that I have Internet Explorer, and that I should get Netscape 7?

If you check the Predictions page now, you'll see where I attempted to upload the maps. You said to email you the maps in case it didn't work, so I did. I just hope I got the right email address. In case you didn't receive my maps I suppose the only thing you can do is delete my predictions, and I can try again or something.

I also hope my information in the previous post ^^^ can help you figure out the problem. Because I will undoubtedly have more predictions as the months proceed, and especially after the Democratic Nominee is declared. And I wouldn't want to burden you with a bunch of emails of predictions at that time.

Demrepdan,
I got your maps and uploaded.  I'm very perplexed by the upload problem... as I have been unable to reproduce on any of my systems/configurations.  I'll do some more research.

I have also enabled the version tracking feature. This will allow everyone to continue to modify their maps based on new information.  Right now, I'm doing a daily tracking (so if you submit more than one prediction per day, it they will all be logged, but only the most recent version from that day will be tracked).

Ryan - can you try an upload with Netscape 7 on your PC?  
Thanks,
Dave

Well,
I looked around on the net and was able to find one solution to the blank upload problem (maybe).  I had omitted double-quotes around the enctype attribute assignment.  Since I am unable to test this, however, I do not know if it worked.
Dave

Dave, I have now been able to upload my map thanks :) Sorry for the trouble.

I'm not sure what errors the others received but according to me I made the following screw-ups

- It looks like both the maps had to be uploaded at the same time. I was attempting to do so one at a time.

- I believe Graphics Interchange Format (.gif) was the type of file to use. I was earlier trying with bitmaps and jpegs

-filenames of the right size

Once I did all of the above it worked like a charm......no problem in the least! Maybe the same applies to at least a few others???

Ryan.

Glad to hear that you were successful.  I've added descriptions of the constraints to the upload page - and also added an error-checking alert dialog prior to the attempted upload.

In addition, I have created a first-draft of an electoral college calculator at this location (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/PRED04/evcalc.php?year=2004).  There is also a link on step 2 of the user prediction pages.

Let me know what you think.
Dave

Excellent tool! Quick to load and much easier to use. I wont be needing any other electoral calculator from now on :)

Btw I had also mailed you on leip at domain uselectionatlas. Did you get that mail and is that the right way to contact you if I need to?

Or do you have any other adddress I should use if I need to contact you personally? If you prefer you could send it to ryanmasc2000@yahoo.co.in

Thanks,
Ryan.

I added some color to the EV Calculator.  Let me know if you like it!
- background colors don't change properly with Opera 5.  Also, you need a browser that supports DHTML (IE >= v5 and Netscape >= v6) in order to view the dynamic color changes.
Dave

Well even though I had said earlier that simplicity was best; in this case, I do think the colors are a useful addition. Nice job Dave.  :)

Cool.  BTW, I did get your mail and that is the best way to email me. (one can always use the email form (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/BOTTOM/email.php) as well).

My 2nd prediction failed again! I think I uploaded OK but then it wouldn't let me enter my username!

English -
I reset the database when I created the ability to add the confidence map.  You need to start fresh (check the initial prediction button and choose your username and password).
Dave

BTW I forgot to mention that after taking care of the probs I mentioned I had no probs uploading with IE 5 ans Win 98- SE so there is no conflict with that system :)

I am confused completely how to make this map.  Could someone please help this newbie to the site but not politics?  Thanks

Steps:
1. Start in this page (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/PRED04/index.php?action=upload).
2. Download the template maps.
3. modify template .gif files with graphic program (such as graphicconverter (Mac) or default paint program (PC) or gimp (Linux), etc.  Be sure to rename according to the guidelines and save a .gif
4. upload the files on the page listed in step 1.
5. once you upload, fill out the comments and EV totals fields.
6. If you need to update, just repeat these steps.

okay, I figured out how to edit the maps in Paint, but I am having trouble uploading them.  do I have to rename the files every time I update (i.e. version 1, 2, 3, etc.?) I assumed that's what "revised prediction" is for, but I think I'm confused

btw, it's been a few months since I've been on the forum, actually my first time on since the forum was redone, glad to be back

Glad to see you back.  I see that you tried to upload a number of files - but they all had a file lenght of 0... meaning that they did not upload properly.  The version number is intended for you to use when you actually update the maps, but if the maps don't upload correctly, then you need to change the name when you try again.  I can't explain the upload problem.  I've not been able to reproduce this problem.  Can you tell me what browser and OS you used when trying to upload?
Dave

I'm using Windows 98 & Internet Explorer, I'm going to rename the maps and try again

I having been using the EV calculator a good bit and maintain its the best one I've used yet. I do not find the lack of a map to be a negative point at all.
However Dave, if like all techies you like to continually make improvements to your work :) I would suggest a horizontal bar graph depicting the new dem/rep totals

This is the only feature from Edwards EV calc on
http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

that I find could be a good addition here and even then its obviously not vital. :)

New User Prediction pages available!  I've redesigned the user-prediction scripts and now have removed all the pain associated with downloading, editing, and uploading maps.  The computer now generates them.  Try it out!

THAT IS THE BOMB!!!!  I updated my prediction just to use it :)  It is so much easier and you don't have to go through and count the EV's.  Thanks!

Any way to delete a map? I wanted to update my original (I hadn't noticed the percentage drop-down boxes weren't all set the same), but after I finished updating my map I somehow wound up with two entries of the exact same thing.

Hi Vetiver,
your two entries aren't the same - the prediction maps have different percentage wins (look at the version history on your individual prediction page).  You can't delete maps, but you can create a new version - and it will become the default version in the list.  There is currently a bug in the "most recent" page that I will address shortly that repeats the most recent version when you submitted multiple versions.
Dave

Dave, great site!

Question for you, or anyone who cares to answer...  What does, for example, >70% mean?  Is it that I think there's an 70%+ chance of a candidate carrying the state in question?  Or is it a prediction that the candidate will get 70%+ of the popular vote in that state?

The Percent column is intended to be the popular vote total for the winning candidate of that state... so > 70% means that the candidate wins the state with > 70% of the vote.
Dave

great new calcultaor dave---I didn't need to used the smrs.tamu.edu page to make the map.  Alot easier.

How come you hide your political opinions with the indpendent avatar?  :)

Thanks, Dave.  My updated prediction map doesn't have as many dark colors now.

whenever I complete my maps and try to submit them, I get an error that shuts my IE down.

How is it that the 2004 predictions mimic the 2000 outcomes, even down to the color shading?

Given the variation in predictions, including the number of all-blue and all-red maps, it seems highly unlikely.

Are we sure this represents the median prediction for each state?

Am I the only one who doesn't understand what he is saying?

We use Red for dem and blue for Republicans.

Actually, I don't understand what you are saying :)
He doesn't mention party colours as far as I can see. I asked the same thing on the other thread. The median prediction map is an exact copy of the 2000 results map, which does seem weird. It is not impossible though.

I think that the matchup between the 2000 map and the 2004 compiled map of user predictions is very suspicious.  Recently the map had begun to reflect a larger Republican victory, with New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa switching to Republican, but this did not last long.  I think a large number of Republican prediction maps were removed to make the average or median more Democratic.  This can be seen by the fact that the number of submitted user predictions drops occasionally.  Interestingly, this adjustmet always favors the Democrats.

OK...I seriously doubt that Leip is purposefully trying to favour the Democrats in the prediction maps. That makes abolutely no sense.

OK...I seriously doubt that Leip is purposefully trying to favour the Democrats in the prediction maps. That makes abolutely no sense.

Well, I'm open to alternative explanations.  Can you think of any?  There's no doubt the number of entries drops occasionally, and the result is a shift back to 269-269 from a substantial Republican lead.

Well, ehhhh...I don't know but I think there is a different reason. Maybe there is a limit as to how many predictions can be included, and he either removes those contributed at an early stage or those which are more extreme? Or there is some technical problem, bug or whatever, which means that the prediction map is not working accurately. Or maybe there are a lot of Democrats, or a lot of goofs making predictions...

There is a reason - I removed a number of entries from prediction spammers (kind of like ballot-box stuffing).  There were three individuals who had submitted almost the same maps over 20 times each.  This was skewing the data towards the bias of a couple of individuals.  I've added additional features to reduce this problem.

As for the identical nature of the prediction map and 2000, this is not a huge surprise since the defaults of the prediction maps are set to the 2000 results - many predictions do not change the win percentages and there are a majority of predictions that believe that the same states will be won in 2004.  I expect this to change once the general election democratic candidate is chosen and more polls are released closer to the election.

Thanks for the explanation Dave.  I guess it shows how much some of us respect 'democracy'!  Thanks for the fun site by the way.

You know another cool way to come up with an electoral map would be to allow users to log in and vote one time each in their home state of choice.  I guess that would just be an online poll.  

I will have to ask you a question then. I posted more than one prediction map, reflecting two different scenarios and one more informative poll based map. They're called Gustaf2 and Gustaf3 and so on. Is this not allowed, b/c then I can remove some, in case you haven't already?

I've set it up so that you can post three, but not more.
Dave

OK, thanks, I think I have already said this once, but GREAT thing with the new prediction map functions. I love it... :)

Why, btw, is there no third party option? It doesn't seem viable now, but it could be interesting in the future.

I can agree; perhaps a third party candidate column should be included.  If Dean runs as a 3rd party candidate or something (which i am NOT saying I think it will happen, but some may want to put that on their maps.

How are campaign stickers posted to the user signature?

I've tried copying .gif and .bmp files but my "paste" command is greyed out when I right-click in the signature box of the profile.

well, you use img and /img tags in brackets [] to post images.

Update to the Prediction page:  There is now the ability to click on a state to see the statistical charts of the > 1000 predictions!

Awesome!

Help !

How can I put a map in my post ?

I want to put a prediction map in a post and comment it.

You make it on the EV calculator, then you right-click somewhere OUTSIDE the map, but inside the window (I recommend in between Hawaii and the continental US...), click on properties and copy the address (including the long series of letters and numbers there), paste it here and put () before and after it.

Thanks a lot.
But it doesn't work with my computer : the map is all grey. Besides this, I would like to use a "prediction map" (with percentages), not a EV map with just red and blue states.
I also tried to paste the adress of a "prediction map" but there was no map at all (not even a grey one).

Hm, the all grey thing seems to happen occasionally...but I think you're just making a small mistake then, I remember other people has been through the same thing. You can do what I just told you with the prediction maps you make to get percentages, etc. You could just post a link to your prediction on this site if you wanted.

Could you make a test with the following adress so I can see what you did with a "Reply" ?
 http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/USERMAPS/pe2004917P2)

Thank you

Let's try this...

()

That's your map, right? :)

()

Yeah, it's my map  ;)
And I'm very proud of it !

I see the problem : nobody told me to put a .gif at the end of the adress.

Now it works :
()

Well, I didn't put it there, I just used properties, etc like I told you. :)

I was forced to put it there (letter by letter). When I did what you told me It didn't work. Your browser must have different settings.
I saw on another page on the forum that someone else had the same trouble (with "grey maps"). The solution is to add .gif manually. It should be in the "Help" somewhere.

OK, I guess you're right then. Anyway, now that you know you can put them on the discussion thread and get other people's opinions. :)

I am trying to add my prediction map to signature file in here.  I have seen a few others who have this.  I tried to follow your instructions, i.e., copy the address of the map from properties.  What I have now is a link to my prediction map in my signature, not the map itself.  Can anyone help me with this?

you put img befor but in [] and /img in [] after it

Thanks....that didn't work.

should work

do [  img  ]liiiiiiiinnnnnkkkkkkk[  /img  ]

but without the spaces

That is exactly what I have, and you can see the result in my signature.  There must be something I am not doing right.

link your map

Exactly what do you mean???

1. Type: img inside brackets

2. Type: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/USERMAPS/pe20041392P1.gif

3. Type: /img inside brackets

()

that's your map:


()

NHPolitico, I have it typed EXACTLY the way you have it laid out, as I was trying to explain to Dunn.  And it is not producing the desired result.  There is some extraneous text that I have not typed into my signature file, which is now appearing there.

I appreciate both of your attempts to help, and I am following both of your instructions to the letter.  Why is this not working????

Do this. Quote Dunn's post with your map. Supposing that it's the corect map. In the quote you'll see what he has written. See if you can figure it out then.

try some other image, just a phto from a web site. Right click on it , save the link, put it in a post with img  /img and []
if it works so you got it right and maybe the map is f***ed up. If ypu don't we'll keep try...

Lets try it here:

()

yeeeeesssssssssssssss

OK, so it works when I post the map into a message, but not into a signature.

No, it works. You are using "<" and ">" instead of brackets and other html.  Just replace them with brackets and delete the html, the double quotes, too.

No, really, I'm not!!!  I'm using brackets like this [] around "img" and "/img", just like you told me to.  There is no <> in my signature.

What is typed into my signature is exactly the same thing that I typed into a message on this board, 4 posts back, where I successfully posted my map.  As I stated in my next post- it works in a message, but not in a signature (for me, anyways).

As for "other html", I don't have any of that, either.  The extra garbage you see displayed in my signature, I do not know where that came from, but it is not anything I have typed in.

Sorry if I seem a little frustrated, really.  I appreciate the help.

Well, thanks to those who have tried to help me fix this, but we have not had any success.  For now, I am taking out the img's and the []'s.  At least I have a link to my prediction, which is better than what I had before.

The map I made will not appear because there are too many from my area already. Is there anything I can do about this? Thanks

Usually I steer clear of the technical thread, all the technical stuff confuses me, but does anyone have a projection based on the most recent polls? Like after April 10.

Siege

State:
2000 election results:
2004 Rasmussen poll number:
??? - percent left over from 2000

WV

2000

Bush - 52
Dem  - 46

2004

Bush - 46
Dem  - 41
???  - 11

CO

2000

Bush - 51
Dem  - 42

2004

Bush - 49
Dem  - 44
???  - 0

FL

2000

Bush - 49
Dem  - 49

2004

Bush - 46
Dem  - 47
???  - 5

WA

2000

Bush - 45
Dem  - 50

2004

Bush - 44
Dem  - 50
???  - 1

IA

2000

Bush - 48
Dem  - 49

2004

Bush - 41
Dem  - 51
???  - 5

MN

2000

Bush - 46
Dem  - 48

2004

Bush - 44
Dem  - 47
???  - 3

MO

2000

Bush - 50
Dem  - 47

2004

Bush - 49
Dem  - 42
???  - 6

MI

2000

Bush - 46
Dem  - 51

2004

Bush - 44
Dem  - 48
???  - 5

OH

2000

Bush - 50
Dem  - 46

2004

Bush - 41
Dem  - 45
???  - 10

PA

2000

Bush - 46
Dem  - 50

2004

Bush - 44
Dem  - 45
???  - 7

CA

2000

Bush - 42
Dem  - 53

2004

Bush - 44
Dem  - 53
???  - 2

NC

2000

Bush - 56
Dem  - 43

2004

Bush - 51
Dem  - 43
???  - 5

IL

2000

Bush - 43
Dem  - 55

2004

Bush - 39
Dem  - 52
???  - 7

Look at my map... as accurate as you are going to find anywhere :D

Most states are based on the last reputable poll, a few states have conflicting polls, so I did my best to sort it out.

How do you post an image from your own PC? Lunar suggested hosting the image, but pardon my ignorance, what do you mean by "host"... darn it I should have paid attention in computer classes... :)  

If you have an image on your computer, you have to put it on the internet before it can be displayed.  I can do this for you or if you have any webspace given by your internet provider then use that.

No web space that i know of...

How Could you help me with this image?

Thanks a lot Lunar :)

E-mail it to me.  It's in my profile.

I use pictureposter.allbrand.nu (http://pictureposter.allbrand.nu).

Just done that... thanks... so how can I use the picture if you have uploaded it?... I assume you upload it and then I can use the address that you post it at to display it?... sorry… darn computers!?!  

Note that I have upgraded the user prediction pages.  Please submit bugs and/or post any problems here.
Thanks,
Dave

I filled out the registration form and entered my 'code', but it says my account is not set up.. can't post a prediction.

Hi,
Sorry for the difficulty.  Can you please be more specific?  When you entered the enable code, did you get an error message?  

Once you enter the code, you should get this message:

User Prediction and Polls Comments successfully enabled.
If you have an old User Prediction, upgrade it to the new database Login

Then, once you log in, I had this message
Note: This account is not enabled for full site membership.
(but I realize that it is confusing and have changed it).  The important point is that cookies must be allowed by your browser in order to post predictions (this is how the login information is remembered).  Can you describe what the error is when you try to post a prediction?

Thanks,
Dave

Dave,

I am not able to log in to update my prediction.  I am being told that my password is incorrect.  I am sure I typed the correct password.  I have clicked the forgotten password link, but have not received an e-mail response.  My user name is JLD.  Thanks Dave!

Fritz - you need to register for the free atlas membership (I've created this new overall membership for polls, user predictions, and the (soon to be available) mock election.  The reg page is:

https://uselectionatlas.org/members.php?type=form

Dave

What are we going to be doing with the mock election?  Can you give any hints? ;)

I've read that CO has gotten a measure on Nov. ballot for proportional appointment of electors that would take immediate effect for 2004 EC vote if it passes.   Any chance this scenario can be modeled?  How can we best reflect the situation in interim?

The Predictions Page now has most recent compiled maps and data on the prediction home page.  I used the most recent 500 - about three weeks worth.  (note, that only one prediction per user is included in the compiled version.  If more than one version from any one user was created in the time frame, only the most recent of those is included in the calculations).
Dave

A 'technical' prediction which may astound many when the first election results are announced is the size of the 'early; (used to be called 'absentee') vote and its significant difference from the precinct vote.

In many areas, the 'early' vote is counted before the precinct votes as those votes are already in the hands of the election officials in the central (usually county) voting offices.

This differentiation may be particularly accute if Democrat election officials may try to keep polling places with heabily Democrat registration open later than the times provided for by law (they did this in St. Louis in 2000).

Dave, there are a few predictions with all red states or all blue states, can you delete these so they don't offset the average map on the front page?

There appears to be some sort of weird bug that just turned my map (and my friend's) into a sea of blue (with the exception of CD 1 and 2 in ME for some reason).

I'm guessing it's a bug, because it's showing the Fish voting for Bush too...

The median calculations for the last 500 predictions seem a bit off. 

Since the predictions don't allow for choices other than Kerry and Bush, all predictions should have (Bush+Kerry)=538, and the same should hold true for the median (which is the average of the middle two).  However, the current median has both candidates below 269.