Talk Elections

A senior U.S.official said Friday the United States and the Taliban have reached a truce agreement that will take effect “very soon” and could lead to withdrawals of American troops from Afghanistan.

The official said the agreement for a seven-day “reduction in violence” to be followed by the start of all-Afghan peace talks within 10 days is “very specific” and covers the entire country including Afghan forces.

The developments come as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper met Friday in Munich with Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani. They spoke on the sidelines of an international security forum in Munich.

A truce had been widely anticipated, and President Donald Trump has agreed in principle to the deal, which could lead to the start of significant U.S. troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, according to U.S. officials.

The seven-day “reduction of violence” deal promised by the Taliban will begin on Friday night, a senior U.S. State Department official said, without specifying the exact time. That will start the countdown to the signing of a peace agreement between the Taliban and the United States at the end of the month.

That peace agreement, to be signed in Doha, Qatar, on Feb. 29, will pave the way for a withdrawal of U.S. troops and intra- Afghan negotiations. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the peace agreement will also lead to an eventual permanent cease-fire.

“We are preparing for the signing to take place on February 29,” Pompeo said in a statement. “Intra-Afghan negotiations will start soon thereafter, and will build on this fundamental step to deliver a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and the future political road map for Afghanistan.”

The State Department official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the deal.

But the road ahead is fraught with difficulties.

It’s still not clear who will represent Kabul at the negotiation table for the intra-Afghan talks, considered a key pillar in finding a lasting peace in the war-torn country. The Afghan election commission earlier this week declared President Ashraf Ghani the winner of the presidential elections held in September but his rivals quickly denounced his win.

The Taliban have refused to talk to Ghani’s government and also denounced the election results, saying they will talk to government representatives but only as ordinary Afghans

Pompeo’s statement did not say who would participate in the intra-Afghan negotiations from Kabul, saying only that “’intra-Afghan negotiations will start soon” after the signing in Doha “and will build on this fundamental step to deliver a comprehensive and permanent cease-fire and the future political road map for Afghanistan.”

The Taliban issued their own statement on the reduction of violence deal.

“Both parties will now create a suitable security situation in advance of agreement signing date, extend invitations to senior representatives of numerous countries and organizations to participate in the signing ceremony, make arrangements for the release of prisoners, structure a path for intra-Afghan negotiations with various political parties of the country and finally lay the groundwork for peace across the country with the withdrawal of all foreign forces,” the Taliban said in a statement Friday.

The Taliban added that they will not allow “the land of Afghanistan to be used against security of others so that our people can live a peaceful and prosperous life under the shade of an Islamic system.”

At its heart, Khalilzad’s deal offers this basic bargain: the Taliban will reduce its violent attacks on U.S. and Afghan troops, and the U.S. will withdraw much its forces from the country. The Taliban has agreed to a seven-day “reduction in violence” to show that it’s serious. But, crucially, its leaders will not agree in public to the U.S. demand to keep counterterrorism forces in Afghanistan.

To get past that roadblock, Khalilzad has come up with a rickety workaround. The deal contains secret annexes, according to three people familiar with details of the current draft. The first is an agreement for U.S. counterterrorism forces to stay in the country. The second is a Taliban denouncement of terrorism and violent extremism. The third annex contains a mechanism to monitor whether all sides are honoring the semi-truce while talks between warring Afghan parties proceed, according to two of the sources, and the last addresses how the CIA will operate in future in Taliban-controlled areas.

Details of the secret annexes were provided in writing to TIME by one of the sources, who insisted on anonymity to disclose details of the confidential talks. A U.S. lawmaker and two Afghan officials confirmed that a long-term counterterrorism force numbering 8,600 U.S. troops, down from the current 13,000, is part of the deal. The State Department and Khalilzad’s office declined to comment, as did the CIA. Khalilzad declined to be interviewed for this article. A Taliban official insisted Thursday that the deal requires a full U.S. troop withdrawal and said that talk of secret annexes were just rumors.

Nearly 19 years ago, American service members went to Afghanistan to root out the terrorists responsible for the 9/11 attacks.  In that time, we have made great progress in Afghanistan, but at great cost to our brave service members, to the American taxpayers, and to the people of Afghanistan.  When I ran for office, I promised the American people I would begin to bring our troops home, and seek to end this war.  We are making substantial progress on that promise.

Soon, at my direction, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will witness the signing of an agreement with representatives of the Taliban, while Secretary of Defense Mark Esper will issue a joint declaration with the government of Afghanistan.  If the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan live up to these commitments, we will have a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home.  These commitments represent an important step to a lasting peace in a new Afghanistan, free from Al Qaeda, ISIS, and any other terrorist group that would seek to bring us harm.  Ultimately it will be up to the people of Afghanistan to work out their future.  We, therefore, urge the Afghan people to seize this opportunity for peace and a new future for their country.

I thank the hundreds of thousands of American warriors who have proudly served in Afghanistan. We have killed or captured many ISIS and Al Qaeda terrorists.  We honor your service and the sacrifices you and your families have made for the American people.  These agreements are a result of the strenuous efforts of those who fought so hard in Afghanistan for the United States of America.

The United States signed a peace agreement with Taliban militants on Saturday aimed at bringing an end to 18 years of bloodshed in Afghanistan and allowing U.S. troops to return home from America’s longest war.

Under the agreement, the U.S. would draw its forces down to 8,600 from 13,000 in the next 3-4 months, with the remaining U.S. forces withdrawing in 14 months. The complete pullout, however, would depend on the Taliban meeting their commitments to prevent terrorism.

A potential terrorist threat remains in the region. Most remaining Qaeda leaders are hiding in Pakistan, but under a Taliban-dominated government could come back. Qaeda and Taliban factions continue to be intertwined in some parts of the country, especially in Afghanistan’s west.

But some analysts and government officials think it can be easy to overstate the risk of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Many intelligence officials believe groups like the country’s Islamic State affiliate are much more of a regional threat, posing a problem to the Taliban and Afghan government rather than Americans. Whether that will remain the case after an American exit, however, is the unanswered question.

More important than troops, potentially, is the willingness for the international community to continue to finance the Afghanistan government after a peace deal.

“The real key to whether Afghanistan avoids falling into an even longer civil war is the degree to which the United States and NATO are willing to fund and train the Afghan security forces over the long term,” Mr. Stavridis said. “When Vietnam collapsed and the helicopters were lifting off the roof of the U.S. Embassy, it was the result of funding being stopped.”

The deal also outlined the release of up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners by the Afghan government in exchange for up to 1,000 Afghan security forces held prisoner by the Taliban.

The swap is intended as a confidence building measure ahead of talks between the Taliban and Afghanistan's government, slated to begin around mid-March in Oslo, Norway. The talks are intended to achieve a lasting ceasefire and a political settlement that would establish a role for the Taliban in the country's future.

But on Sunday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani told a news conference in Kabul, Afghanistan, that a prisoner release was not a promise the United States could make, according to The Associated Press. "The request has been made by the United States for the release of prisoners and it can be part of the negotiations but it cannot be a precondition," said Ghani..

"We had a very good conversation with the leader of the Taliban today they're looking to get this ended ... the country really has to get it ended, we've been there for 20 years ... the relationship I have is very good with the Mullah," Trump said.

It was the first strike against the Taliban in 11 days, he said. It came just five days after the U.S. and Taliban signed an historic agreement that would end America’s longest war if the Taliban lived up to its commitments.

U.S. officials argue there’s a commitment by the Taliban to reduce violence. However, the four pages signed Feb. 29 agreement does not discuss a cessation of hostilities or reduction in violence. Technically, the week long reduction in violence partial truce ended on Feb. 29.

President Trump's newly installed acting Pentagon chief is bringing on a senior adviser in a sign the administration wants to accelerate the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Middle East before the end of his presidency in January, three people familiar with the move told Axios.

Why it matters: A senior administration official says a wave of firings at the Pentagon and the hiring of Ret. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor is in part a settling of Trump's personal scores — but senior White House officials also have made clear "they want them more publicly to talk about getting out of Afghanistan by the end of the year."

• Trump, who ran in 2016 on a promise to bring U.S. troops home, is frustrated with the slow pace of withdrawing troops from the Middle East, another senior administration official said.
• The president has told advisers on numerous occasions he wants troops home from Afghanistan by Christmas.

In a 2019 interview with Fox's Tucker Carlson, Macgregor said he would advise the president to get out of Afghanistan "as soon as possible," including removing the U.S. embassy from Kabul, and that talking to the Taliban was unnecessary.

• Macgregor also said the U.S. needs to pull its troops out of Syria immediately and America had no national interest there.
• He said, "We need to listen very carefully to the Iranians ... find out what their interests are and look for areas where we can cooperate" and that the U.S. needs to "turn the operational control of the [Korean] Peninsula militarily over to President Moon and the Koreans."

Consistent is not the adjective many would use to describe President Trump’s national security policy. But there is one goal he has nurtured since the 2016 campaign: withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan.

Now, in the waning days of his presidency, Mr. Trump is scrambling to make it so, aided by conservative antiwar forces who see it not only as good policy but also as a linchpin to any future he may seek in politics.

This week, Mr. Trump dismissed his defense secretary, Mark T. Esper, who had repeatedly expressed reluctance for a fast pullout from Afghanistan, replacing him with Christopher C. Miller, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, who may lack the stature and experience to push back effectively on Mr. Trump’s 11th-hour foreign policy actions.

Notably, Douglas Macgregor, a retired Army colonel and fierce proponent of ending American involvement in Afghanistan, was named this week as a senior adviser to Mr. Miller.

Mr. Trump recently nominated a new ambassador to Afghanistan, William Ruger, the vice president for research and policy at the Charles Koch Institute — a vocal and well-financed opponent of current conflicts abroad. Even before any Senate confirmation, which seems unlikely before Inauguration Day, Mr. Ruger maintains a large chair at Mr. Trump’s foreign policy table.

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With his recent flurry of firings and appointments, Mr. Trump has effectively pulled down a majority of the personnel guardrails against a fast withdrawal.

President Trump is expected to order the U.S. military to withdraw thousands of troops from Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia by the time he leaves office in January, using the end of his time in power to significantly pull back American forces from far-flung conflicts around the world.

Under a draft order circulating at the Pentagon on Monday, the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan would be halved from the current deployment of 4,500 troops, officials said.

In Iraq, the Pentagon would trim force levels slightly below the 3,000 troops that commanders had previously announced. And in Somalia, virtually all of the more than 700 troops conducting training and counterterrorism missions would leave.

Taken together, the cuts reflect Mr. Trump’s longstanding desire to stop shouldering the cost of long-running military engagements against Islamist insurgencies in failed and fragile countries in Africa and the Middle East, a grinding mission that has spread since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

But the president’s aspirations have long run into resistance, as his own national security officials argued that abandonment of such troubled countries could have catastrophic consequences — such as when the United States pulled out of Iraq at the end of 2011, leaving a vacuum that fostered the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Mr. Trump has also repeatedly pushed to withdraw from Syria, but several hundred U.S. troops remain stationed there, partly to protect coveted oil fields held by American-backed Syrian Kurdish allies from being seized by the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. The current deliberations over withdrawals would not affect those in Syria, officials said.

The plan under discussion to pull out of Somalia is said to not apply to U.S. forces stationed in nearby Kenya and Djibouti, where American drones that carry out airstrikes in Somalia are based, according to officials familiar with the internal deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The U.S. military will halve the number of troops it has in Afghanistan within the next two months, Pentagon officials said Tuesday, as President Trump seeks to move closer to keeping a promise to end wars abroad despite concerns that the decision could undermine negotiations with the Taliban.

Pentagon officials also said they would make smaller cuts in Iraq, where U.S. forces have focused on countering the Islamic State.

“We owe this moment to the many patriots who made the ultimate sacrifice and our comrades who carry forward their legacy,” acting defense secretary Christopher C. Miller said at the Pentagon.

Miller said the military will carry out Trump’s orders in both countries by Jan. 15, with troop numbers reduced from about 5,000 to 2,500 in Afghanistan and from about 3,000 to 2,500 in Iraq. Even with the president’s repeated calls over the years to bring American troops home, the United States remains entangled in the wars in the closing weeks of the Trump administration.

In Afghanistan, which the United States invaded in the wake of the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the move appeared to mark a middle ground between Trump’s impulse to remove all American troops and recommendations from senior U.S. military officials to maintain the current numbers. In October, the president tweeted that all U.S. troops should be “home by Christmas.”

The announcement came eight days after Miller took over for ousted defense secretary Mark T. Esper, who had submitted a classified memo to the White House saying that the conditions on the ground in Afghanistan did not warrant such troop reductions.