Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2020 U.S. Presidential Election => Topic started by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on February 14, 2020, 01:30:26 AM



Title: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on February 14, 2020, 01:30:26 AM
Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas in a General Election against Trump? He is only down by 2 points (47-45) in the new University of TX/Texas Tribune poll. You don't need many undecideds to break in favor of the Dems for it to happen - or alternatively you don't need that much additional voter registration and turnout.

Remember that TX is a very young state, with huge un-tapped reserves of non-voters and low-propensity Democratic-leaning non-white voters... And Trump has had consistently poor approval ratings in Texas...


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 14, 2020, 01:35:00 AM
Could he yes but its Likely R and that poll general I believe has a Dem lean.


Also the fact is Bernie has not been hit anywhere hard as the other candidates , once he is he will fall in general election polls . Bernie has a lot of dirt that hasnt been used against him yet


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Xing on February 14, 2020, 01:58:40 AM
In a recession he could, but under normal conditions, a surprisingly close loss is probably the best he could do.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Frenchrepublican on February 14, 2020, 02:34:18 AM
No, very unlikely

Yeah, you have this poll which has Trump leading by only 2 BUT if you average the 4 most recent TX polls we have Trump is leading Sanders by a more confortable 6 points margin, let’s be clear the idea that Trump would win TX by double digits against Sanders because mUh sOcIaLiSm is absurd, TX is trending to the left and Trump is far from beloved in the state but in the end, considering Sanders vulnerability on energy issues and his love for foreign communist, anti-American dictators Trump would probably win TX by a healthy margin (something like 52/46 would be relatively reasonable)


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: McGarnagle on February 14, 2020, 03:16:52 AM
Possibly but it would be super close

Texas might not flip for another four to eight years


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Pericles on February 14, 2020, 04:48:56 AM
I don't think he will, but it's possible. Sometimes the trend is stronger than expected, and especially if the national environment is good for Dems, it could happen. Most likely is a narrow loss, then Texas becomes a swing state in future elections.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: SnowLabrador on February 14, 2020, 06:20:32 AM
Probably not barring a recession, and even then it would be difficult. Voted no.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: UWS on February 14, 2020, 06:28:27 AM
No, very unlikely

Yeah, you have this poll which has Trump leading by only 2 BUT if you average the 4 most recent TX polls we have Trump is leading Sanders by a more confortable 6 points margin, let’s be clear the idea that Trump would win TX by double digits against Sanders because mUh sOcIaLiSm is absurd, TX is trending to the left and Trump is far from beloved in the state but in the end, considering Sanders vulnerability on energy issues and his love for foreign communist, anti-American dictators Trump would probably win TX by a healthy margin (something like 52/46 would be relatively reasonable)

Bernie is a bad fit for Texas. Just like Beto O’Rourke he wants to abolish ICE while Texas is on the frontline of the border crisis, which will give Trump an opportunity to label him as an extremist and that is part of the reasons why Cruz won in 2018 because O’Rourke was obviously too liberal for Texas.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Adam Griffin on February 14, 2020, 06:28:48 AM
No


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: slothdem on February 14, 2020, 09:17:47 AM
No, but he could lose close, which would be NOT GREAT for Trump.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Mr. Illini on February 14, 2020, 09:20:07 AM
Of the Democratic candidates, he is one of the less likely candidates that would carry it.

It's not a secret that Bernie's strength is not in the Sun Belt. If he is nominated, the path to the White House is through the upper Midwest. Biden and Bloomberg would be strongest in states like Arizona and Texas, though no Democratic nominee is likely to carry Texas regardless.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: beaver2.0 on February 14, 2020, 09:26:35 AM
No it’s not going to happen.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Arizona Iced Tea on February 14, 2020, 10:49:30 AM
Nope it would be safe R against him


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: SN2903 on February 14, 2020, 11:31:30 AM
Texas is Titanium R if Bernie is the nominee. Trump wins it by 13-17 pts. Polls are underestimating how big Trump would win if Bernie is the nominee. Socialism is very very unpopular.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: SN2903 on February 14, 2020, 11:33:06 AM
In a recession he could, but under normal conditions, a surprisingly close loss is probably the best he could do.
There isn't gonna be a recession. Get over it.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Cyrusman on February 14, 2020, 01:43:21 PM
Absolutely not. I think he’s an awful fit for Texas

Texas is not voting for someone that far to the left

Honestly I think trump would do better than his 2016 numbers against Bernie in Texas


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on February 14, 2020, 03:17:32 PM
No


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 14, 2020, 04:31:31 PM
Yes, we can very well have a 1976 map where WI, IA, OH goes R and TX, FL and AZ goes D. IL, NY and Cali are Safe D. Latinos are the base of Dems


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: MIKESOWELL on February 14, 2020, 05:09:23 PM
Probably not but anything's possible. I think Trump probably wins 51-46 in Texas maybe 50-48 tops if you're a Democrat.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Skill and Chance on February 14, 2020, 05:18:17 PM
2016 taught me to take nothing for granted.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 14, 2020, 05:49:35 PM
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 14, 2020, 05:58:07 PM
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol




Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Podgy the Bear on February 14, 2020, 06:23:41 PM
Forget it.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Dalfyrie on February 14, 2020, 06:40:01 PM
If Latino, young people and poor whites vote, yes.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: BP🌹 on February 14, 2020, 07:06:33 PM
We've established that suburbz hate socialism, so it'll revert back to Bush margins.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on February 14, 2020, 07:09:38 PM
No. No Democrat could. This is not the year it flips, even if it continues moving left.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 14, 2020, 07:13:39 PM
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol




Oh, wow, you actually agree with me that Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa. I guess people can learn.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 14, 2020, 07:19:57 PM
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol




Oh, wow, you actually agree with me that Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa. I guess people can learn.


If Micheal Bloomberg is the nominee I would actually agree , cause Micheal Bloomberg is an excellent fit for Texas while Biden was the only candidate who was a great fit to win Iowa in a general election .

If Bernie is the nominee well it won’t matter cause he will lose both easily


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Cyrusman on February 14, 2020, 07:29:55 PM
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol




Oh, wow, you actually agree with me that Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa. I guess people can learn.


If Micheal Bloomberg is the nominee I would actually agree , cause Micheal Bloomberg is an excellent fit for Texas while Biden was the only candidate who was a great fit to win Iowa in a general election .

If Bernie is the nominee well it won’t matter cause he will lose both easily


How exactly in Michael Bloomberg an “excellent fit” for Texas? I’m not saying he’s an awful fit but how is someone who supports very tough gun control legislations an excellent fit


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 14, 2020, 08:36:11 PM
If Micheal Bloomberg is the nominee I would actually agree , cause Micheal Bloomberg is an excellent fit for Texas while Biden was the only candidate who was a great fit to win Iowa in a general election .

If Bernie is the nominee well it won’t matter cause he will lose both easily


How exactly in Michael Bloomberg an “excellent fit” for Texas? I’m not saying he’s an awful fit but how is someone who supports very tough gun control legislations an excellent fit

Not to mention that this entire "Candidate X is an excellent/poor fit for state Y and will therefore do significantly better/worse in said state than Candidate Z, who is a much worse/better fit for the state" line of reasoning is inane for obvious reasons.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: MillennialModerate on February 14, 2020, 08:51:42 PM
I respect that the op meant this question in a serious way but come on....

It’d take a scandal of biblical proportions combined with a total collapse of the economy


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: SWE on February 15, 2020, 01:14:49 AM
In a really contrived scenario yeah, but realistically, no


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Sbane on February 15, 2020, 01:21:09 AM
Nah likely 51-48 or 51-47 Trump.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: SN2903 on February 15, 2020, 02:29:07 AM
More like Trump 57 Bernie 42


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 15, 2020, 02:36:13 AM

He is not gonna choose Rashida Tlaib as his running mate


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: SN2903 on February 15, 2020, 02:38:37 AM

He is not gonna choose Rashida Tlaib as his running mate
No way Bernie keeps Texas within 10 pts. He is a terrible fit for the state. The polls are not measuring how unpopular socialism is. Trump would demolish him politically.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 15, 2020, 02:38:53 AM
This is how Trump will do in Texas against the main Dem candidates


Vs Bernie: Trump by 8
Vs Mayor Pete: Trump by 6.5
Vs Amy: Trump by 6
Vs Biden: Trump by 5
vs Bloomberg: Trump by 3


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 15, 2020, 02:40:27 AM

He is not gonna choose Rashida Tlaib as his running mate
No way Bernie keeps Texas within 10 pts. He is a terrible fit for the state. The polls are not measuring how unpopular socialism is. Trump would demolish him politically.


Sure he would but Trump will also be mired in a couple of self-inflicted controversies which will hurt him which will make Trump win TX against Bernie by 8 points.



Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Sbane on February 15, 2020, 03:06:52 AM

Even Abbot couldn't get that margin against a no name candidate.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Intell on February 15, 2020, 03:11:16 AM
Bernie will do best in Texas, buttigeg worst.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Donnie on February 15, 2020, 04:16:18 AM
NO. A socialist jew from Vermont winning in Texas? Come on people be real...


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 15, 2020, 09:16:54 AM
NO. A socialist jew from Vermont winning in Texas? Come on people be real...

Of course now he cant, but 2008, the wave didnt happen until the last minute, October 2008. But, Castro would have been a better Candidate than Hegar who will lose to Cornyn


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook on February 15, 2020, 01:49:12 PM
No (Normal)


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: AGA on February 15, 2020, 01:50:31 PM
Absolutely not.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 15, 2020, 07:11:47 PM

Even Abbot couldn't get that margin against a no name candidate.

Trump only has to yell socialist a few times and those Williamson County, Hays County and Fort Bend County Democratic-leaning indies will come running into his arms. If only other Republicans before him had thought to attack their opponents as socialists...


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: TDAS04 on February 15, 2020, 07:41:37 PM
I doubt any Democrat would at this time.  They’d all probably improve on the 2016 margin, however.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: sg0508 on February 15, 2020, 09:52:47 PM
Bernie would be one of the worst candidates for the Democrats' chances in TX this year.  Yes, the youth vote may like him, but he'll also draw more conservatives out to help Trump.

Trump by at least 10 points.


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 15, 2020, 09:57:25 PM
Bernie would be one of the worst candidates for the Democrats' chances in TX this year.  Yes, the youth vote may like him, but he'll also draw more conservatives out to help Trump.

Trump by at least 10 points.

Conservatives...turn out at maximum levels for all elections no matter who it’s against. It seems like everyone is pulling these wild “Bernie is going to do so badly against Trump in the suburbs” memes out of their asses when there is zero polling evidence to back that up. He is polling just as well as Biden and Bloomberg and far better than Warren, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg are against Trump


Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Mr. Smith on February 15, 2020, 10:00:18 PM
NO. A socialist jew from Vermont winning in Texas? Come on people be real...

A failed NYC Tycoon that stood on a golden escalator won Iowa, a state that the Bushes struggled with.

A man with the middle name Hussein did a better job in NC and Virginia than actual Southern Democrats.

A nepotist won West Virginia despite losing the popular vote, while his Daddy couldn't do the same thing with an 8 point lead.

See the problem here?



Title: Re: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
Post by: Forward on February 16, 2020, 12:24:50 AM
LMFAO no